Latvia and Lithuania are considering a ban on the transit of Russian grain, wheat exports are declining
Quick Look
- Latvia is considering a complete ban on the transit of Russian grain through its ports; Lithuania does not disclose details of the restrictions.
- Exports of Russian wheat decreased from 1.3 million tons in August 2025 to a level corresponding to a 3.8-fold decrease by August 2026.
- The number of buyer countries fell from 43 to 16.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Russia is increasing grain supplies through Baltic Sea ports, mainly Latvian, after redirecting export flows. The number of countries purchasing Russian wheat has decreased significantly over the year.
Latvia and Lithuania are thinking about stopping the transit of Russian grain. According to Reuters, Riga plans to completely ban such supplies, and Vilnius does not disclose details of future restrictions.
According to available data, Russia has begun to redirect grain supplies from its own ports in the Baltic Sea to the ports of the Baltic countries, mainly Latvia. According to estimates, volumes could rise sharply in October.
The number of buyers of Russian wheat has decreased
The number of countries purchasing Russian wheat decreased from 43 in August 2025 to 16 in August 2026. In particular, Russia exported 1.7 million tons of grain, of which wheat accounted for 1.3 million tons. For grains and legumes, the decrease was estimated at 3.5 times, and for wheat - 3.8 times. Supplies of barley to foreign markets decreased threefold.
The main buyers of this type of food remained Egypt, which imported 450 thousand tons, Bangladesh (160.6 thousand) and Saudi Arabia (115 thousand tons).
New export destinations for August were Venezuela (84 thousand tons), Indonesia (66 thousand), Iran (26.5 thousand). Exports to Sri Lanka were increased by 1.7 times, to 77 thousand tons, and to Yemen - by 8.5 percent, to 53.7 thousand tons.
It was previously reported that from August 1 to August 20 of this year, the total volumes of Russian grain shipments abroad decreased by 2.5 times compared to the same period in 2025.
Trade between Russia and Indonesia grew by 22 percent
In turn, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced an increase in trade between the main state and Russia by 22 percent. In particular, Jakarta is interested in increasing imports of Russian energy resources, grain and fertilizers.
Russia predicted a sharp drop in wheat exports
At the end of August, Kommersant, citing a forecast from Sovecon analysts, reported that problems with the export of Russian grain could worsen in September.
According to experts' expectations, in the first autumn month, domestic farmers will send only 1.8-2.3 million tons of wheat to foreign markets. The annual decline could be 52.1-62.5 percent.
If the forecast comes true, this figure will be the lowest since 2010.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Latvia will introduce a complete ban on the transit of Russian grain through its ports
Likely · Within weeks
Exports of Russian wheat in September 2026 will decrease to 1.8–2.3 million tons
Possible · Within weeks
Open Questions
- When exactly will Latvia introduce a ban on the transit of Russian grain?
- What specific measures does Lithuania plan regarding transit?
- How will the losses of Latvian ports from reduced transit be compensated?
- What alternative export routes is Russia considering?
