(Beijing = Yonhap News) Correspondent Jeong Seong-jo = China's position against North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons has not changed, but experts in China have diagnosed that denuclearization has become realistically difficult at present as North Korea's nuclear capabilities have advanced.
On the 20th, the Institute for National Security Strategy and Chinese think tank Guo Guanzuku held a joint international academic conference in Beijing, China under the theme of 'Establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and exploring arms control measures.'
Mr. A, a Chinese military expert who attended the meeting, said, "In the past, we proposed a plan where the US and South Korea would stop large-scale military exercises and North Korea (North Korea) would stop nuclear missile tests, but this method no longer works. Now, North Korea has a lot more cards in its hands than then, and its status has also greatly increased."
This expert said, “In this situation, if we talk about a ‘double halt’ by saying we will stop and you should stop too, North Korea will definitely not accept it,” adding, “It is a regrettable situation.” 'Double suspension' means stopping joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States and North Korea's ballistic missile launches, and is a policy that China has advocated as the starting point for resolving the Korean Peninsula issue.
However, when asked whether there was any change in the policy to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, he drew a line, saying, "China's position is very firm and unchanged."
Mr. B, an expert on China's party and government foreign policy, explained, "China very much does not want North Korea to develop nuclear weapons, and there is no question about this. Moreover, the fact that the nuclear base is adjacent to China is fatal, and the difficulty this situation brings to China is quite significant." He added, "North Korea's basic attitude toward China now is, 'No matter what you say, we will not listen unconditionally and we will watch the situation.'"
Mr. C, a North Korea expert, predicted that North Korea has taken an extreme policy of trying to increase deterrence and international status by developing nuclear weapons and missiles, but if it goes any further, its effectiveness will decrease and risks such as pressure from China will increase, so there is a possibility that it will change direction from 'strategic deterrence' to 'strategic restraint' in the future.
Mr. C said, "It may be a somewhat optimistic view, but the possibility of establishing a peace mechanism on the Korean Peninsula is increasing." ▲ North Korea is well aware that it must rely on China to promote reform and development ▲ Chairman Kim Jong-un's recent diplomacy has become more flexible ▲ Policy is changing from 'military first' (military first) to 'military and militia middle' (emphasis on both military and civilians) ▲ unification They presented reasons such as the fact that they have given up and are pursuing reform and opening as an independent country.
He said, “North Korea, which depends on Russia for security and China for the economy, will try to realize its interests in a special strategic balance created by contradictions between the United States, China, South Korea, and the United States. This period could last 20 to 30 years, and a peaceful environment is extremely important for North Korea.”
South Korean experts emphasized the risks posed by North Korea's recent trends, while also highlighting China's role in denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and establishing a peace regime.
Kim Jeong-seop, director of the Sejong Institute, pointed out that the Korean Peninsula is currently facing not only the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons, but also the risk of instability where an accidental conflict could lead to an escalation of war, and the risk of an arms race. Jeon Bong-geun, advisor to the National Diplomatic Academy's Non-Proliferation Research Center, warned that the international community's increasing acceptance of the fact that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons could lead to the spread of instability in Northeast Asia and the nuclear armament of South Korea and Japan.
Kim Seong-bae, director of the Institute for National Security Strategy, said, "If the spirit of dual stoppage and double advance (simultaneous promotion of denuclearization and North Korea-US peace agreement) (which China has advocated) is still valid, it can be said that the basic positions of South Korea and China are largely aligned, and strategic cooperation between Korea and China is more important than ever." “It is,” he said.
Director Renlibo Guo Guan-zuku said that South Korea and China cannot avoid political, diplomatic, and economic differences, but must pay attention to their "common interests." He emphasized, "We are all beneficiaries of a peaceful environment and sustainable development, beneficiaries of globalization and free trade, and beneficiaries of the international order based on the United Nations. We are all working for the denuclearization and permanent peace of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia."
