Lebanon is less than three weeks away from holding the eighth round of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations under American sponsorship, but this time at the military level, and will be held in Florida, on the twentieth of October. That is, a week before the Knesset elections are held in Israel on the 27th of the same month, with the date set to be fixed in the coming hours. This is what the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, was informed of by the American sponsor of the negotiations.
The Florida meeting is par excellence military, and Lebanon is represented by a delegation headed by former Ambassador Simon Karam, in the presence of Lebanon’s Ambassador to America, Nada Hamada Moawad, and a military team headed by the Director of Operations at the Army Command, Brigadier General George Rizkallah. The meeting is sponsored by the head of the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon, American General Joseph Clearfield, and comes in the context of confirming the continuation of negotiations in light of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s intersection with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, when he met him in Washington, to proceed with the implementation of the “Agreement.” Framework,” which means, as a source accompanying the negotiations told Asharq Al-Awsat, blocking the way for Hezbollah by separating the Lebanese track from the Iranian-American “memorandum of understanding,” and not keeping Lebanon suspended from it.
The source revealed that the Lebanese delegation will re-present the file of Lebanese prisoners to Israel, given that its previous release of five Lebanese and Syrian prisoners came from outside the list that Lebanon submitted in the previous round of negotiations.
He pointed out that the Lebanese delegation will propose, as before, the consolidation of the ceasefire, including the cessation of hostilities, and the expansion of the “experimental zone,” by annexing cities and towns that are still occupied, in addition to removing the “verification mechanism” of the army’s deployment there from the tensions by naming the team charged with ensuring that it is free of “Hezbollah” weapons and its fighters.
The source said that he hopes that the meeting will activate the “framework agreement,” lest it be limited to passing an American message of continuing negotiations, instead of agreeing on a set of steps that are supposed to be at the forefront of the meeting, and which are intended to bring the agreement out of stagnation by stopping Israel’s bulldozing of towns located along the Yellow Line, and its systematic destruction of homes, even though most of them were leveled to the ground and only a small number of them remain that the Israeli army uses to reside in after converting them into assembly centers for its military units equipped with cameras to ensure that no Hezbollah members infiltrated it. Although the source rules out Israel expanding the security zone after it withdraws the fighting units, on the other hand, it is betting on American intervention at the appropriate time to prevent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from expanding it to impose a fait accompli, if he assesses that he needs it to ensure his return to head the government.
He believed that Netanyahu's withdrawal of the "Golani" Brigade and adopting the strengthening of the defensive lines along the security zone occupied by his army means, from the point of view of the security source, that he is making it a priority to strengthen his control over it, in addition to closing it with fire on the towns located on the front edge north of the Litani River overlooking its south, after he took control of the "Ali Al-Taher" hills and is applying fire to the surrounding towns.
He stressed that Lebanon expects from the meeting that Washington will put pressure on Netanyahu. Not only to prevent it from expanding the security zone, but also to target the heights located between Iqlim al-Tuffah and Jabal al-Rayhan and oblige it to adjust the rhythm of its army in a way that leads to a reduction in the level of violations and mobile attacks between the south of the Litani and its north, while Hezbollah refrains from responding to them despite the threats issued by its Secretary-General Naim Qassem from time to time, and it remains under the roof of the nerves of its popular incubator.
The source stopped short of Lebanon's demand to implement synchronization in the steps between Israel's withdrawal and the army's deployment, in light of the statement issued by the US State Department after the Salam-Roubio meeting, in which it focused on disarming Hezbollah as a basis for achieving synchronization. He said that Lebanon maintains its position of exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state and will not back down from it, no matter how intense the pressure on it from the “party” is, but what it is currently looking forward to is preparing the atmosphere for expanding the army’s deployment and not targeting it from Israel. Because it is not permissible to deploy it while Israel continues to pressure it with fire and target the positions it occupies along the front edge of the north of the river.
He stressed the need to prepare the atmosphere to proceed with the implementation of the “Framework Agreement” in stages. Starting with expanding the Lebanese army’s deployment in locations from which Israel withdraws; Because it constitutes a lever for the government in its response to Hezbollah, which turns its back on the calls and advice given to it to take a lesson from its support for Gaza and Iran, instead of supporting Lebanon’s position to get it out of the crises that besiege it, and the party caused most of them by its monopolization of the decision of peace and war, and its request from the government to bear the consequences of a decision that it has no compunction about.
He believed that strengthening the government's position and providing support to it would weaken Hezbollah, which is betting on the "memorandum of understanding," even though Washington, which is a party to it, is continuing to separate the Lebanese track from Iran.
In this context, the source asked Hezbollah: What is the point of keeping Lebanon dependent on the Iranian-American “memorandum of understanding”? What dialogue does Qassem call for, as long as he links the Lebanese track with Iran, calls for the abolition of the “Framework Agreement,” and clings to his weapons, while the alternative that is positioned under his roof is still struggling with the escalation of the exchange of threats between the two parties that signed the memorandum, and does not take the advice that was given to him to engage in the state’s project and surrender his weapons in implementation of his exclusivity in its hands?
Hezbollah is trying to absorb the resentment of its popular environment, by announcing a “contribution” to a project to shelter those affected by the war and those who lost their homes, about six months after a devastating war that expanded at a record rate since last March 2, during which Israel occupied more than 65 Lebanese villages and towns in the south.
The announcement by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naeem Qassem of his intention to “contribute to a shelter project” and the confirmation of the party’s commitment to providing shelter, restoration and reconstruction “with our capabilities and donations” comes in an attempt to absorb the growing resentment in his environment after the reluctance to secure funds for shelter for about two years despite successive promises, which exacerbated the conditions of thousands of families who lost their homes, especially those on the border edge.
The party is currently keeping quiet about the details of the project that Qasim spoke about, while those who are supposed to benefit from it hope that the amounts will be disbursed soon, especially since they promised this some time ago and are still waiting for these promises to be implemented.
The residents of the suburb understand from this announcement that the contribution will not fully cover the rents of the homes that shelter those displaced from their destroyed homes, but rather it will be part of the cost of rents. Sources from the suburb told Asharq Al-Awsat that the announcement of a contribution frustrated hopes that the party would cover the entire rent allowance, as was the case in 2006 or even after the 2024 war. It is understood that the party will pay part, not all, of the rents. The sources said: “We are waiting for the details to be announced so that the nature of this support becomes clear.”
This file has become one of the most pressing files on the party, which is suffering from a financial crisis, which Qasim spoke about and linked it to the financial “siege” imposed on his party, which prevents it from transferring funds from Iran to Lebanon.
According to researcher Muhammad Shams al-Din, the shelter allowance is currently supposed to be provided to about 35,000 families, pointing out that the last payment that arrived to these people was after the March 2026 war in the form of a monthly allowance for those in Beirut amounting to $400, while in the south it reached $300. He pointed out in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that until now “there is no final conception of the amount that will be allocated and how it will be distributed, and whether it will include specific months or A whole year.”
In 2024, after the first round of the war, Hezbollah paid the amounts required to repair minor damages up to ten thousand US dollars, and the amounts it paid at that time were estimated at around 300 million dollars to complete this process, in addition to paying an amount of 800 million dollars as a temporary shelter allowance at that time, furniture allowance and rent for a year for those whose homes were completely destroyed.
In 2025, Qasim announced that the party provided housing allowance to 50,755 people, and renovated housing for 332,000 people.
The party's opponent, Dr. Ali Murad, links this announcement to “a state of restlessness, which begins with minimal objections and, in some cases, reaches public objection to the choices made by Hezbollah and the path it proposed to the people of the south.” The question asked today is: What options are available to these people in the future after everything that happened? Does Hezbollah have a clear vision for the next stage?
Murad said in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that, “In light of this waiting situation, Hezbollah finds itself required, even partially, to find solutions to shelter people. He also insists in parallel on holding the state responsible for the negligence, knowing that he is aware of the magnitude of the crisis that the state is suffering from.
Murad believes that “paying a shelter allowance, even if it is possible to secure it, cannot address the extent of the losses suffered by people.” He added: “The state bears clear responsibilities and obligations towards its citizens, but what people are actually waiting for is a clear vision that allows them to return to their villages and homes, and this is not available at the present time. Therefore, the state is required to bear its responsibility towards the South, not only by paying compensation or with the aim of cutting off Hezbollah, but by becoming the alternative party and the primary reference for the people of the South, and the real gateway out of the crisis that is worsening over time.”
For his part, Dr. Mohieddine Al-Shehimi, professor of law and foreign policy in Paris, believes that Hezbollah wants, through what it announced about shelter offers, to “achieve three basic goals: First, to block the way for the state and show itself as a present and capable party, as opposed to a state that is absent or incapable of carrying out its role. Through this, he seeks to send a message to his fans that, despite everything that happened, he still exists and is able to bear his responsibilities.”
Secondly, the party wants to send a financial message, stating that it is still able to secure funds despite the large losses it has suffered, and the measures and sanctions that have targeted it... As for the third goal, it is related to morale within its environment. There is, according to Al-Shehimi, “a state of restlessness that has begun to appear, albeit in a limited, undeclared, and constant manner. The party, which fears any reaction within its environment, no matter how limited, wants through these steps to confirm that it still exists and is able to be present, and that it is the party that constitutes the fortress and protection, not the state.
Regarding the financial aspect, Al-Shehaimi says, “The party has lost a large part of its funding sources and its financial map, but it insists on showing its ability to continue.” According to this estimate, he still has financial resources, although they are less than they were previously, and aid still reaches him through informal financial networks, despite strict supervision and procedures.
Hence, Al-Shehaimi believes that what is required of the state “is not to deal with this issue through reactions similar to the party’s reactions, but rather to develop an integrated financial vision that is in sync with the political track.” The state, in the end, is the party that is supposed to restore its role and work to end the exceptional situation imposed by the party’s weapons, through a clear and integrated political and financial path.”
