
Signs of persistent inflationary pressures; interest rate hike likely in December
AI-generated summary
The consumer price index for October released by the U.S. Department of Labor exceeded market expectations, although the rise in energy prices has come to a halt.
[Washington Current Affairs] The US Department of Labor announced on the 10th that the consumer price index (CPI) for October rose 0.4% from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Growth slowed from the previous month (0.6% increase) as energy prices due to the US-Iran conflict came to a halt. However, it exceeded market expectations (0.3% rise). In a sign that inflationary pressures are persistent, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates for the first time in two meetings at its December monetary policy meeting.
The core index, which excludes highly volatile energy and food items, rose 0.3%, the same level as last month. In a speech prior to the release of the CPI, Fed Director Waller argued that if the growth rate of the core index were around or above 0.3%, ``we should consider raising interest rates by 0.5% at the December meeting'' in order to achieve price stability.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Fed is likely to raise interest rates at its December meeting.
Likely · Within months

At the Tokyo stock market on the 10th, the Nikkei Stock Average continued to rise, closing at 60,459.58 yen, up 1,684.08 yen from the previous day. The closing price has recovered to the 60,000 yen level for the first time in three business days. AI and semiconductor stocks were bought on the back of a drop in crude oil prices due to expectations of an easing of tensions in the Middle East, and positive sentiment on the previous day's rise in US stocks.

The SoftBank Group announced its interim financial results for September 2026 on the 10th, with a net loss of 768 billion yen, falling into the red for the first time in three years. This was mainly due to losses associated with changes in plans for AI data centers in the United States.

SoftBank Group's interim consolidated net income fell into the red, and Mitsui Chemicals announced that it would acquire JSR for approximately 1.4 trillion yen. The Liberal Democratic Party reprimanded four members, including former Prime Minister Ishiba, and a Chinese man was arrested in central Tokyo for operating a base station without a license.

China's General Administration of Customs announced on the 10th that the trade surplus for the period from January to October was $1.4259 trillion (approximately 165 trillion yen), marking a record high of about $1.2 trillion for the entire year of 2025 and exceeding $1 trillion for the second consecutive year. Against a backdrop of growth in semiconductor and EV exports, pressure from the US side to rectify the trade imbalance is likely to increase at the US-China summit.

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' September Family Income and Expenditure Survey, real consumption expenditure for households with two or more people decreased by 6.8% compared to the same month last year, marking the first significant decline in six years since September 2020. Due to bad weather such as long rains, people refrained from going out and shopping, and the ninth category of expenses, such as food, utilities, and water, decreased.
![[NY Gold] Rebound to $4,114.50, the highest price in two weeks (9th)](/api/img?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jiji.com%2Fimg%2Fjijicom_og_image.png&w=320&q=72&f=webp)
Gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange rebounded on the 9th against the backdrop of low oil prices and a weak dollar, with the clearing price for the main December contract rising $39.60 (0.97%) from the previous weekend to $4,114.50 per ounce. In response to progress in negotiations with Iran, US President Trump indicated that he would prioritize diplomacy towards ending military operations, raising hopes for a easing of tensions between the US and Iran. The People's Bank of China's increase in gold reserves in October also provided support.