We are witnessing a confusing period in US-Ukraine relations. US President Donald Trump criticized his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, for not seeking to negotiate an end to the war, while Kiev accused Washington of withholding vital military support.
Trump sent an envoy to Norway and Russia in an attempt to advance the peace process, but Washington only emerged from these efforts with a plan to resume tripartite talks.
Meanwhile, the bloody Russian attacks continue, while Ukraine expresses its concern about the fracturing of American support for it.
These recent tensions are not the first of their kind between Kyiv and Trump; فقد استهل الأخير ولايته الثانية بوقف المساعدات الموجهة للمجهود الحربي الأوكراني. ومنذ ذلك الحين، تولت أوروبا تغطية التكاليف، بينما عملت كييف على تطوير صناعتها الدفاعية المحلية بوتيرة متسارعة.
To what extent does Ukraine still depend on American support? Can she continue fighting in his absence?
يرى خبراء أن الولايات المتحدة تمتلك 3 مسارات رئيسية للضغط على كييف، اقتصادية وعسكرية وسياسية، في سعيها لدفع أوكرانيا نحو نوع من الاستسلام لإنهاء الحرب التي شنتها روسيا.
On the economic level: reducing aid to Ukraine
The Trump administration has stopped providing new aid packages to Ukraine in early 2025.
وقبل ذلك، كانت الولايات المتحدة قد قدمت لأوكرانيا مساعدات إجمالية لا تقل عن 131.5 مليار دولار، مما يجعلها أكبر مانح منفرد منذ بدء الغزو الروسي الشامل عام 2022، وذلك وفقاً لبيانات "معهد كيل للاقتصاد العالمي"، وهو مركز أبحاث ألماني يتتبع المساعدات المقدمة لأوكرانيا خلال الحرب. ولا تزال بعض الأسلحة، التي تم التعاقد على شرائها من الشركات المصنعة الأمريكية خلال عهد إدارة بايدن، تصل إلى أوكرانيا، إلا أن تنفيذ العديد من تلك العقود قد اكتمل بالفعل.
تُظهر بيانات "معهد كيل" أن دول ومؤسسات الاتحاد الأوروبي، مجتمعةً ككتلة واحدة، تتفوق الآن على الولايات المتحدة من حيث إجمالي التبرعات، إذ قدمت ما لا يقل عن 228.5 مليار دولار منذ عام 2022.
وتُعد ألمانيا والدنمارك هولندا والسويد أكبر الدول المانحة للمساعدات العسكرية داخل الاتحاد الأوروبي، بينما ساهمت المملكة المتحدة والنرويج أيضاً بجزء كبير من المساعدات العسكرية من خارج التكتل.
وتأتي العديد من هذه التبرعات في صورة قيام حلفاء في "الناتو" بشراء أسلحة أمريكية الصنع، ثم نقلها بعد ذلك إلى أوكرانيا.
However, these European arms transfers still require Pentagon approval, giving the Trump administration an additional leverage.
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky touched on the severe shortage that his country is suffering from in American Patriot interceptor missiles, saying: “The delivery of interceptor missiles - which protect us from Russian ballistic missiles - is still late. We are waiting for missiles that have already been agreed upon, but they have not arrived yet.”
وفي الأسبوع الماضي، نفد مخزون أوكرانيا من صواريخ "باتريوت" الاعتراضية -وهي واحدة من الأسلحة الدفاعية القليلة القادرة على إسقاط الصواريخ الباليستية- مما جعل البلاد أكثر عرضة للهجمات الروسية.
ولم يتم اعتراض أي من الصواريخ الباليستية التي ضربت كييف خلال الليلة الفاصلة بين الأربعاء والخميس، وهو مؤشر على أن مخزونات "باتريوت" لا تزال فارغة أو عند مستويات منخفضة للغاية. وفي تصريح لشبكة CNNبعد ساعات من ذلك الهجوم، أكد زيلينسكي أن أوكرانيا تحتاج في هذه اللحظة الحرجة إلى أمرين أساسيين من حلفائها: "عدم رفع العقوبات عن بوتين... وتزويدنا بصواريخ أفضل".
ونظراً لأن طلبيات الأسلحة هذه تمثل مكسباً كبيراً لشركات الدفاع الأمريكية، يرى محللون أنه من غير المرجح أن يستمر أي تباطؤ أو عرقلة لعمليات الشراء لفترة طويلة.
Military field: exchange of intelligence information and the Internet via satellite
رغم انهيار الدعم المالي الأمريكي، لا تزال أوكرانيا تعتمد بشكل كبير على المعلومات الاستخباراتية والتكنولوجيا الأمريكية.
Ukraine has no alternative to unique American systems, such as the "Patriot" interceptor missiles, the "Starshield" version of Elon Musk's "Starlink" satellite Internet network, in addition to advanced missile early warning technologies.
يقول ماكس بيرغمان، مدير برنامج روسيا في "مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية والدولية" -وهو مركز أبحاث مقره واشنطن-: "هذه قدرات لا يملكها الأوروبيون؛ والسبب في ذلك هو أننا (الولايات المتحدة) طلبنا منهم على مدى السنوات الثلاثين الماضية ألا يطوروها... بدعوى أن بإمكانهم الاعتماد علينا".
وفي تصريح لشبكة CNN، أضاف بيرغمان: "نحن الآن في وضع تثبت فيه أمريكا لكل الأطراف في أوروبا أنه لا يمكن الاعتماد عليها ببساطة".
وتابع قائلاً: "قد يكون لهذا الأمر تداعيات كارثية على أوكرانيا؛ إذ قد يتسبب في أضرار اقتصادية هائلة، وخسائر فادحة في أرواح المدنيين، ونزوح للسكان. ومع ذلك، أشك في أن هذا سيؤدي فعلياً إلى كسر إرادة أوكرانيا في القتال".
Zelensky said earlier this week that Ukraine had not received - on several occasions - US intelligence warnings about ballistic missile attacks. This led to Russian missile attacks without the usual sirens alerting residents to go to shelters, which Ukrainian officials confirmed caused more civilian casualties.
For its part, the US State Department, as well as Trump himself, denied any restriction in the exchange of intelligence information.
By Tuesday evening, Zelensky said that intelligence-sharing with the United States was “back to work” again.
Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials said on Friday that the StarShield service was still subject to restrictions, despite Trump's claim that Elon Musk had restored Ukraine's full access to the service.
Ukrainian officials explained that these restrictions - which hinder the operation of any military equipment moving at high speeds - have hindered Ukrainian interceptor drones in confronting Russian attacks, and have negatively affected Ukrainian military operations in many front-line areas.
In an interview with CNN this week, Zelensky said: “We are wondering whether it is possible to provide us with the ‘Starshield’ service at the usual speed so that we can defend ourselves,” noting that the European allies are the ones who bear the costs of the satellite Internet service contract. He added: "If that is not possible, that's okay; we will persevere and remain strong."
For their part, Trump and some of his senior officials denied issuing any directives to restrict Ukraine's use of the StarShield service, without providing a clear explanation of what actually happened. Trump said earlier this week that he was not a party to the matter.
An informed source told CNN that the US President asked Musk, during a phone call in recent days, to re-provide Ukraine's full access to the Starshield satellite system.
However, Musk denied taking any unilateral action, noting in a social media post that “any restrictions on speed or use are decided by the US military and, ultimately, the US President himself.”
Experts believe that any additional disruptions or restrictions on US-backed regimes would, in the short term, cause serious harm to Ukraine. In the long term, European allies are likely to pump more money into developing their own systems to support Ukraine.
Commenting on Kiev's contract for the "Starshield" service and the deals to purchase Patriot interceptor missiles, Bergman said: "I think that the Ukrainians did not expect the United States to stoop to this level or practice this level of treason. What Washington provides is not a charitable act, but rather a service for which Ukraine pays."
Bergman continued: "What the US administration is doing carries with it much broader implications related to the fundamental reliability of the United States as a supplier of defense technology and systems."
On the political level: giving hope to Putin
Analysts say the dispute between the United States and Ukraine has broader geopolitical ramifications and could end up being a gift to the Kremlin's war efforts.
This follows a series of controversial steps taken by the Trump administration this month, including canceling new sanctions on Russia before they take effect, and concluding a deal allowing Russia to export diesel fuel. At the same time, the Kremlin has so far shown no flexibility regarding its hardline demands to end the war.
Washington's willingness to put unprecedented pressure on Kiev "gives Russia hope that its continuation of the war may ultimately lead to a decline in European resolve," says Natia Siscoria, senior researcher on Russia and Eurasia at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defense think tank.
John Love, head of international partnerships at the Center for New Eurasia Strategies, takes a similar view. “I think the Russians are feeling quite complacent right now, given the pressure that these recent developments are putting on Europe, with Trump pushing Ukraine, undermining the sanctions regime, and not moving forward with the bill that Lindsey Graham proposed,” he told CNN. “It clearly highlights the fact that Europe and the United States are not on the same page.”
Trump directly linked the cancellation of sanctions to the release of detained American citizen Stephen Hubbard, despite his previous statements that the United States did not offer Moscow “anything in return” in exchange for his freedom.
Experts believe that part of this tension - especially regarding the issue of diesel fuel, where Trump held Ukraine responsible for rising prices due to its attacks on Russian oil refineries, rather than attributing it to the war in Iran - may fade after the midterm elections in the United States. However, Love asserts that the problem of high fuel prices, coupled with the unpopularity of the war in Iran, will remain for the remainder of Trump's presidency.
Loew adds that Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian oil refineries were a "direct provocation" to Trump; “It makes Ukraine an easy target if one wants to evade responsibility for what happened with regard to Iran.”
