Opposition reversal, key to constituency adjustment: Difficulty due to ``big consolidation'' - Interview with Kokugakuin University Professor Kentaro Yamamoto

In an interview with Jiji Press, Kentaro Yamamoto, a professor of Japanese politics at Kokugakuin University who is an expert on political realignment, said that the split in the centrist reform coalition has made it "much more difficult" to reorganize the opposition party, which aims to form a "big solidity" to oppose the Liberal Democratic Party. At the same time, he pointed out that the key to a reversal would be for each party to continue to exist and for candidates to be chosen in the constituencies for both the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives. The main exchanges are as follows.

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-What was the reason for the failure of the Centrist Party?

In most cases, forming a new party just before an election is unsuccessful. In the 2025 House of Councilors election, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan ranked third in the opposition party behind the Democratic Party of the People and the NDP due to its proportional representation votes. There are strong voices among the Ritsumeikan factions that the results would have been different if they had fought alone in this year's House of Representatives election, but they should recognize that they were in a poor state to begin with. There may have been a ``point of no return'' quite some time ago.

-Calls for "regime change" did not resonate.

The former Democratic Party tried to gain trust by writing concrete policies and figures in its manifesto. After that setback, time has passed without me finding a different way to do things. As the centrist movement was rejected by voters, it became difficult to create a ``large group'' that could support the government. After the centrist split, Komeito has expressed its desire to form a coalition again with the Liberal Democratic Party, raising doubts about its resolve. From the Liberal Democratic Party's perspective, it is an easy situation to run the government.

-What are the key points for getting rid of the "weak" state?

If the proportional representation quota for the House of Representatives is reduced, the weight of single-seat constituencies will increase more than ever. This should be an opportunity for opposition parties to separate electoral districts and create cooperation at the field level. If it takes some form in the 2028 House of Councilors election, the same framework will be in place for the House of Representatives election.

- There is also criticism of the ``Election Mutual Aid Association'' regarding Sumi-Ware.

Although there is deep-rooted criticism of the Democratic Party, he justified the opposition camp's selection of only one candidate by saying that he would do what the Liberal Democratic Party cannot do. I think the challenge that the opposition parties should take now is to seriously look for things that the Liberal Democratic Party government cannot do. Both the Democratic Party of Japan and the Democratic Party of Japan have been fighting against the illusion of the Democratic Party. Isn't the other party the Liberal Democratic Party?

- How will the Democratic Reform Party and centrist unsuccessful candidates act?