Political scientist Peter Eitel and former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel pointed out in a guest commentary jointly written by Neue Zürcher Zeitung that the Iran war not only exposed the limitations of the United States' military power, but also highlighted Beijing's lack of influence on its partner countries. The turbulent global situation also provides Europe with opportunities. This commentary titled "When China and the United States are weakened" reads:
"U.S. President Trump's attempts to force Iran to submit militarily appear to be failing. This war has not only exposed the limitations of U.S. military power, but also weakened China. The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has restricted logistics and trade and intensified China's structural problems have already emerged: high debt, artificially low exchange rate, youth unemployment, uneven economic development among regions, and an aging population. If China cannot or can only barely achieve the economic growth goals set by the authorities, then the situation will be extremely unfavorable to Xi Jinping.
In contrast, the Russo-Ukrainian War brought great economic benefits to China. Russia and Iran bypass sanctions and ship crude oil and natural gas to China, which greatly meets the country's energy needs without China having to pay high costs to ensure the safety of maritime traffic. In addition, China has also made huge profits by selling so-called dual-use products to Russia. Thanks to an artificially low exchange rate, an economy supported by low-interest loans, and aided by cheap energy, China's economy has been able to maintain itself despite extremely weak domestic demand and has maintained extremely high competitiveness in terms of costs.
The Iran war may end this favorable situation for China. As the world's largest oil importer, China has not only suddenly lost an important channel for obtaining energy, but also has to realize that its influence on its "partners" is actually very limited. Despite its special relationship with Tehran, Beijing has been unable to convince Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or at least to Chinese shipping. For the United States, the Iran war is a domestic and diplomatic disaster. None of the military objectives were achieved, at great cost to taxpayers, and with no end in sight. "
A guest comment from Neue Zürcher Zeitung pointed out that today, as the two superpowers China and the United States are becoming weaker, the world has become more dangerous. As the strength and influence of China and the United States decline, some countries and alliances are eager to fill the resulting power vacuum:
"The erosion of power between China and the United States has also provided the EU with an opportunity to reposition its international role. However, for the most part, Brussels still seems content with empty rhetoric. The EU has long been trying to become a geopolitical force, but it has often been bogged down by disputes over minutiae and even the bureaucratic obstacles that hinder its economic development.
Of course, Europe can complain about the changes in the world as a bystander while choosing to stay out of it. But it can also seize the current opportunity to become an important force in global geopolitics. To this end, the EU must have the courage to defend its own interests, implement in-depth reforms, strengthen its defense capabilities, and ensure the security of strategic shipping routes and raw material supplies. "
Xi Jinping plans for his fourth term
The "Business Daily" analysis article pointed out that the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which will last until this Thursday, will focus on issues such as strengthening ideology and centralized leadership promoted by Xi Jinping, while the anti-corruption campaign and the personnel layout of next year's Party Congress will be more eye-catching. The article titled "Xi Jinping Wants to Consolidate Power for the Next Ten Years" reads:
"Many observers believe that China's party and state leader Xi Jinping is entering his fourth term. After Mao Zedong, the founder of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping is the most powerful Chinese leader. In 2018, with Xi Jinping's active promotion, China revised its constitution to eliminate term limits for the president.
Observers generally believe that the personnel layout for the 21st National Congress has actually begun, and some personnel adjustments are completed in a "cleaning" manner. Statistics from the Asia Society Policy Institute show that of the 376 Central Committee members and alternate members elected in 2022, only 291 may attend the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee. The agency said 28 people have been removed from the Central Committee and dozens more are under investigation or are missing. According to Chinese officials, the anti-corruption campaign continues.
Among them, the People's Liberation Army of China has been hardest hit. Currently, only Xi Jinping himself and his close aide Zhang Shengmin remain in the Central Military Commission, the highest leadership body of the Chinese military. In a recent anti-corruption campaign, top military general Zhang Youxia and Xinjiang Party Committee Secretary Ma Xingrui were sacked.
Maintaining close relationships with people around Xi Jinping is often seen as an important prerequisite for retaining power. This is exactly how Xi Jinping ensures his influence and political legacy. "
