Aljazira Capital expected Saudi Aramco’s revenues to rise by 26.8 percent on an annual basis, to reach 530 billion riyals ($141.3 billion) during the third quarter of 2026, while net profits after minority rights are expected to reach 113.6 billion riyals ($30.3 billion), an increase of 16.8 percent compared to the same period last year. Aramco is scheduled to announce the third quarter results on Tuesday, the third of this month.
On a quarterly basis, Aljazira Capital estimates that Aramco’s revenues will grow by 1.6 percent, compared to a decline in net profits by 6.5 percent compared to the results announced for the second quarter, or 8.5 percent compared to the adjusted net profits for the same period, affected by the decline in revenues from the exploration and production sector and the shrinkage of the operating profit margin, despite the improved performance of the refining, processing and marketing sector.
The expected increase in revenues is mainly due to growth in revenues from the refining, processing and marketing segment, as well as recovery in hydrocarbon sales volumes, at a time when lower realized oil prices are expected to limit growth in revenues from the exploration and production segment.
Refining supports revenues
Aljazira Capital expected the revenues of the refining, processing and marketing sector to rise by 3.6 percent on a quarterly basis, to reach 334.8 billion riyals, supported by a sharp rise in refining margins, although sales volumes were affected by some logistical challenges.
On the other hand, the company estimates that the revenues of the exploration and production sector will decline by 1.7 percent to 194.6 billion riyals, affected by the decline in oil prices achieved, despite expectations of a recovery in sales volumes as the passage of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz improves and exports approach pre-war levels.
Sales volumes recover
The company expected Aramco's total sales of hydrocarbons to rise to 10.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the third quarter, compared to about 9.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the previous quarter.
Estimates include crude oil sales reaching 7.7 million barrels per day, while total liquids sales are estimated at about 8.7 million barrels per day, with gas production rising to 11.2 billion standard cubic feet per day, compared to about 9.9 billion cubic feet in the previous quarter. Crude oil production in the second quarter amounted to about 6.7 million barrels per day.
2.08 trillion riyals expected revenues in 2026
At the full-year level, Aljazira Capital expected Aramco’s revenues to rise by 24.3 percent during 2026, to reach 2.078 trillion riyals, while net profits are expected to grow by 40.2 percent to 488 billion riyals.
The company's estimates are based on an average oil price of about $91 per barrel during the year, and an average hydrocarbon volume of 11.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including crude oil production of 8 million barrels per day.
Indicators of the Saudi economy show an increasing ability to deal with external shocks, supported by the expansion of the base of non-oil activities that continued to grow despite geopolitical tensions and disruptions to trade and energy routes in the region. Although the GDP contracted by 3.8 percent on an annual basis during the third quarter of 2026, the pace of decline slowed compared to a contraction of 4.7 percent in the second quarter, while non-oil activities recorded a growth of 1.9 percent compared to a growth of 0.9 percent in the second quarter, compared to a decline in oil activities by 20.4 percent.
The importance of this performance is highlighted in light of the exceptional circumstances witnessed in the third quarter, with the disruption of navigation traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary halt of the East-West pipeline during September.
The seasonally adjusted real GDP also recorded a growth of 1.3 percent compared to the second quarter, which indicates an improvement in economic activity on a quarterly basis, and reflects the ability of some sectors to continue expansion despite the sharp decline in oil activities.
Annual and quarterly performance
In detail, the Authority’s data revealed that oil activities were behind the contraction in the gross domestic product, as their negative contribution amounted to 4.7 percentage points, while government activities contributed to a decrease of 0.4 percentage points.
In contrast, non-oil activities made a positive contribution of 1.1 percentage points, in addition to the contribution of net taxes on products of about 0.1 percentage points.
The data also showed an improvement in the performance of the economy on a quarterly basis, as the seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product increased by 1.3 percent during the third quarter compared to the second quarter of the current year. This growth was driven by an increase in oil activities by 5.7 percent, and non-oil activities by 0.6 percent, while government activities declined by 1.2 percent.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund indicated that the financial margins available to the Kingdom and alternative oil export facilities help limit the economic damage resulting from the war, considering that Saudi Arabia is in a better position than its Gulf counterparts to contain the repercussions of the unrest. The Fund expected a strong recovery of the Saudi economy during the year 2027, with growth reaching 7.9 percent, in light of expectations of a recovery in oil activities and an improvement in trade and shipping movements.
These expectations are of particular importance in light of the Saudi government’s estimates that the economy will shrink by 3.6 percent during 2026, with the expected budget deficit rising to 4.9 percent of GDP.
The discrepancy between the performance of oil and non-oil activities reinforces the importance of the structural transformations taking place in the Saudi economy. Non-oil activities are no longer just an additional contributor to the gross domestic product, but rather are playing an increasing role in absorbing shocks and reducing the transmission of the effects of fluctuations in the energy sector to the rest of the economy.
Promising sectors
Since the launch of “Vision 2030”, the Saudi government has adopted a clear strategy to diversify sources of income and expand the base of the economy, by accelerating the growth of non-oil activities and developing promising sectors, including information technology and artificial intelligence, transportation and logistics services, tourism, entertainment, quality of life, renewable energy and sustainability, in addition to mining, industry and other targeted areas.
These efforts contributed to expanding the sources of economic activity and enhancing the contribution of non-oil sectors, giving the Saudi economy greater flexibility in the face of external fluctuations, by diversifying sources of added value and expanding the role of local activities and the private sector.
Consumer spending
In this context, Dr. Abdullah Al-Mir, assistant professor of economics at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the contraction witnessed by the Saudi economy during the third quarter of this year was not comprehensive, but was largely concentrated in oil activities, which declined by about 20 percent. In contrast, non-oil activities continued to grow by 1.9 percent, playing an important role in mitigating the impact of the sharp decline in the oil sector.
According to Al-Mir, government spending and private sector activity represent essential tributaries to this cohesion, as continued consumer spending by households and the private sector contributes to maintaining domestic demand in the trade, retail, hospitality, services, and transportation sectors, which are employment-intensive activities and directly linked to the non-oil economy.
He pointed out that the purchasing managers index issued by Riyad Bank recorded 55.3 points in September 2026, continuing to remain in the expansion zone for the sixth month in a row, which reflects the continued improvement in non-oil private sector activity.
He explained that the importance of non-oil activities becomes clearer when the energy sector slows down, as continued activity in services, entertainment and domestic tourism helps small and medium enterprises to continue working, maintains local supply chains and supports job opportunities.
He stressed the importance of enhancing the flexibility of the non-oil private sector in the face of external fluctuations. He added that one of the most prominent manifestations of the economic transformation is the rise in the share of non-oil activities to 57.3 percent of the Saudi economy, a percentage he described as historic, and reflects a structural shift in the structure of the economy.
Al-Meer linked this transformation to a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent, pointing to the impact that the expansion of non-oil activity could have on the labor market.
He pointed out that sectors such as tourism, entertainment, technology, and manufacturing industries continued to expand despite the geopolitical turmoil that affected oil production and shipping, which reflects a structural shift in the Saudi economy.
He added: “Non-oil activities have a greater ability to withstand, while the continued investment momentum associated with (Vision 2030) provides an alternative source of growth.”
