The Joint List party won a historic victory in the elections to the Seimas of Latvia

The Prime Minister's "United List" succeeded in achieving something that no other party in the history of independent Latvia has ever managed to achieve - gaining the support of more than 35% of voters. The gap is also impressive: the next party, “Latvia First,” received 13% of the vote. At the same time, another record was recorded in the elections - a record low turnout.

The day before, on October 3, elections to the Seimas were held in Latvia. The Latvian Central Election Commission has already counted most of the votes. The ruling “Joint List” wins - it received more than 35.3% of the votes. In addition to him, five more parties are entering the Seimas: “Latvia comes first” (13%), “Sovereign Power/Young Latvians” (11.7%), “National Union” (8.9%), “Progressive” (7.8%) and “New Unity” (6.3%).

The Joint List wins a record 42 seats. Before him, the best result was achieved by the Latvian Way party (Latvijas ceļš), created by activists of the independence movement. In 1993, the first election after regaining independence, the party won 36 seats, and all other election winners in subsequent years had more modest results. Only two parties had more than 30 mandates: Unity in 2010 and Harmony in 2011.

The current right-wing coalition includes the Joint List, New Unity, National Rally and the Green and Peasant Union (GPU). As a result of the current elections, the NWC did not pass the five percent threshold, but even without it, the parties in the coalition in the new Seimas receive about 60 mandates, and the politicians of the “Joint List” have already spoken out in favor of first of all negotiating with the current coalition partners.

“The Joint List” is moderate-conservative center-right, “National Rally” is right-wing national conservative, “New Unity” is nationally oriented centrist. Thus, the most likely next government will be of a right-wing conservative bent. Until May 2026, the coalition included New Unity, the moderate-conservative Union of Greens and Peasants and the left-liberal social democrats Progressives.

What is known about the winning party?

The Joint List can be called a moderate-conservative center-right party. It was created in 2022 from three pre-existing parties: the Latvian Association of Regions, the Liepaja Party and the Latvian Green Party. The Latvian Green Party used to be part of the “Union of Greens and Peasants”, which now could not overcome the five percent barter. Some other politicians from the North-Western Congress also joined the Joint List.

Despite the fact that the Joint List has been in power for more than six months, a survey by the SKDS think tank found that its supporters are among those most eager for change.

The party promises to strengthen the eastern border (i.e. the border with Russia and Belarus), adopt Ukrainian experience in the field of defense, attract investment, stop regular tax revisions, which, according to the party, interfere with long-term investment, more fairly finance the regions and revise the Green Deal so that its implementation does not interfere with economic development.

Andris Kulbergs, the current Prime Minister of Latvia and the leader of the list, is not formally a member of any party. He comes from an entrepreneurial background, led the Latvian Automobile Association, and was a member of the council of the Latvian Confederation of Employers. Kulbergs positions himself as a problem solver, and one of the party’s election slogans was: “Kulbergs is the solution.”

The politician in his rhetoric emphasizes the need to develop the economy and entrepreneurship, and talks about the need to attract foreign investment. He gained popularity by being active on social networks and debating in the Sejm, where he did not hesitate to use harsh and memorable language.

Among other things, he headed the parliamentary commission to investigate violations during the construction of the international railway megaproject Rail Baltica. The construction of Rail Baltica on the Latvian section is progressing much more slowly than planned, and the costs are much higher than planned. Kulbergs said that Rail Baltica had become “a symbol of inaction and irresponsibility” and criticized the ill-conceived financial calculations: “Is it legal to spend money that actually doesn’t exist?”

Extravagance is a frequent theme in his statements. He criticized the management problems of Rīgas siltums, the company that provides heating in Riga, and spoke of “millions thrown away”, and called a report on government funding of non-governmental organizations “shit” and “dung” (sūds and mēsls).

The party's election program describes Kulbergs as a person who “managed to purposefully unite political forces, put aside differences and start working. No promises of miracles. With a clear and realistic goal: to make Latvia safer, to bring order to public finances, to fight waste and corruption” (quote translated by Rus.Delfi).

Having entered the Seimas in 2022, the “Joint List” first entered the ruling coalition, but already in 2023 the coalition collapsed, unable to agree on a single candidate for the presidency (in Latvia, he is chosen by the Seimas). The party found itself in opposition for three years. At that time, polls showed that the party's rating barely exceeded five percent.

In May, due to the crisis caused by Ukrainian drones flying into the country, the previous government of Latvia collapsed, and the “United” List re-entered the ruling coalition. Kulbergs became prime minister. Despite the fact that he repeatedly criticized politicians from New Unity, which had previously been the ruling party for many years, New Unity entered the coalition and simply lost its leadership.

In the four months remaining before the elections, the rating of the “Joint List” grew, while the rating of “New Unity” fell; according to the latest pre-election polls, it even remained outside the five percent barrier. However, even the September rating gave the Joint List about 14% of the vote, and no one predicted such a crushing victory.

The party itself did not expect such results: as its representative, Minister of Smart Governance and Regional Development Edgar Tavars, noted in a comment to LETA, this was a “little surprise,” although they expected that there would be more than 30 seats.

As political scientist Iveta Kazhoka noted in a commentary to LETA, the Joint List did not displace any party from its usual niche, but took away votes from almost all parties, primarily from the New Unity and the Union of Greens and Peasants. According to her, Kulbergs is “certainly a phenomenon in Latvian politics.”

Who can join the coalition?

With 42 mandates, the “United List” can create a coalition of two parties, uniting with almost any of the political forces that entered the Sejm - except for “New Unity”, which receives only seven mandates. Most likely, they will not take risks by creating an unstable coalition, and the coalition will be created from at least three parties.

Joint List politicians have already spoken out in favor of cooperating with the current coalition partners, that is, New Unity and National Rally.

Raimonds Vējonis, the former President of Latvia and a member of the Joint List, said the day before that the most likely model would be cooperation with those parties that are currently in the government, and the party’s Minister of Smart Governance and Regional Development Edgars Tavars called the National Rally the closest ally both in the opposition and in the government, which will first of all be considered as a possible partner. He added that “theoretically” there “could be a place” for New Unity in the coalition.

Tavars noted that the party hopes to retain the prime minister's chair and the Ministry of Finance, and also, taking into account the increased number of mandates, to take control of some other ministries. Including, according to him, the “Joint List” can lay claim to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which until now has been under the control of the “New Unity”.

At the moment, he said, the party does not see the possibility of inviting second-place “Latvia First” into the coalition.

Who got the “Russian” voice?

As the BBC has already written in a detailed analysis, there is a phenomenon of ethnic voting in Latvia. More than a third of Latvian residents speak Russian as their native language. The Russian-speaking population of Latvia, for the most part, has fairly clearly expressed sympathies for certain parties that, to one degree or another, advocate for its interests. Partially intersecting with the national-linguistic issue is the issue of attitudes towards the war in Ukraine. As a study conducted in 2025 showed, 12% of Latvian Russian speakers openly support Russia, 18% support Ukraine, and 55% do not support either side. The Harmony party, which once had a monopoly on Russian-speaking votes, condemned the invasion and failed to enter the Seimas in 2022.

The association “Sovereign Power/Young Latvians” claims to be the main “Russian party”; the “Stability!”, which did not pass into the Seimas, rely primarily on Russian votes. and "Consent". She actively fought for the votes of Russian speakers and “Latvia comes first”: she even has a Russian-language section on the website and separate Russian-language pages on social networks. The party condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and expelled in 2022 those party members who refused to do so - but it retains a “pro-Russian” reputation, both because of its work for the Russian-speaking electorate and because of the business ties of its leader Ainars Šlesers to Russia. Because of this, many other parties said they would not enter into a coalition with her.

The Joint List failed to win in only six municipalities, all of which are located in Latgale, a region on the border with Russia and Belarus where the majority of the population is Russian-speaking. “Latvia in First Place” won there, partly also because the party’s Latgale list included the former mayor of Rezekne, Alexander Bartashevich, popular in the region, and activist Olga Petkevich, popular on social networks.

“Sovereign Power”, which fundamentally refused to condemn the Russian invasion, did not win anywhere - in some of these regions it is in second place, in others in third, after the “Joint List”, which showed very good results in Latgale.

Taking into account the fact that the “United List” considers the “National Union”, the most negatively disposed towards the Russian language, as the primary coalition partner, and Latvian Russian speakers, in turn, often vote according to the principle “if only not for the National Bloc” - the election results may cause disappointment among this part of society.

Record low turnout

Another record of the current elections is the lowest turnout in history. It was only 51.81%. The highest turnout, 89.9%, was recorded in 1993, in the first parliamentary elections in Latvia after the collapse of the USSR.

Most often, young people (59%) said that they would not go to vote, explaining that they are not interested in politics. The least common are people aged 55 to 64 years (16%).