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Back카발로 '재정균형 긍정적이나 통화·환율·금융은 미흡'
카발로 '재정균형 긍정적이나 통화·환율·금융은 미흡'
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연합뉴스2 hours agoWorld2 min readSouth KoreaView translation

카발로 '재정균형 긍정적이나 통화·환율·금융은 미흡'

Quick Look

도밍고 카발로 전 아르헨티나 경제장관은 밀레이 정부의 재정균형 달성을 높이 평가했으나 통화·환율·금융 시스템 정비가 미흡하다고 비판하며 환율 통제 완전 철폐와 외환보유고 확충을 촉구했다. 또한 RIGI 인센티브 제도가 자유시장 원칙과 맞지 않다고 지적하고, 2027년 대선에서 경제 성과 미흡 시 정책 후퇴 위험을 경고하며 실용주의의 필요성을 강조했다.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

아르헨티나는 높은 인플레이션과 경제 위기를 겪고 있으며, 하비에르 밀레이 대통령은 자유시장 원칙과 긴축 정책을 펴고 있다. 도밍고 카발로는 1990년대 아르헨티나의 통화정책 개혁을 주도한 전직 경제장관으로, 현재 밀레이 정부에 대한 조언을 하고 있다.

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도밍고 카발로 아르헨티나 전 경제장관이 하비에르 밀레이 정부에 대해 "인플레이션을 낮추는 것보다 경기 회복과 성장률을 높이는 것이 더 중요하다"며 외환시장 자유화와 금융개혁을 촉구했다.

카발로 전 장관은 6일(현지시간) 현지 일간지 클라린과의 인터뷰에서 "내수시장이 재활성화되고 아르헨티나가 연 3%가 아니라 6∼8% 성장하는 것이 중요하다"고 말했다.

그는 밀레이 대통령이 재정균형을 달성한 점은 높이 평가하면서도 "통화·환율·금융 시스템을 정비하는 것을 잊은 것 같다"며 모든 경제 주체가 자유롭게 외환을 사고팔 수 있도록 환율 통제(cepo)를 완전히 철폐해야 한다고 주장했다.

특히 특정 분야 대규모 투자에 세제·환율 혜택을 주는 인센티브 제도(RIGI)에 대해서는 "일부 부문에 특별한 혜택을 주는 것은 전형적인 산업정책"이라며 밀레이 정부가 당초 내세운 자유시장 원칙과 맞지 않는다고 지적했다.

그는 중앙은행이 외환보유고를 적극적으로 축적해야 한다며 "달러를 매입하기 위해 페소를 발행하는 것을 두려워해서는 안 된다"고 말했다.

그러면서 외환시장 자유화와 외부 자금 조달 비용 하락이 국가위험도와 국내 금리를 낮추는 데 도움이 될 것이라고 설명했다.

카발로는 2027년 대선과 관련해서는 경제 성과가 국민에게 체감되지 않을 경우 정책이 되돌려질 위험이 있다고 경고하면서 차기 정부가 좌파 성향이 되더라도 현실에 맞는 실용주의가 필요하다고 강조했다.

그는 스페인의 사회주의자 펠리페 곤살레스 전 총리와 브라질의 페르난두 엔리케 카르도주 전 대통령을 사례로 들며 "지도자에게는 이념보다 실용주의와 현실주의가 더 중요하다"고 말했다.

아울러 그는 "아르헨티나가 호주나 캐나다처럼 풍부한 천연자원과 인적자원을 활용해 세계 경제에 편입된 국가로 발전할 수 있다"면서 "우리에게 부족한 것은 자원이 아니라 경제와 정치의 효율적인 운영체계다"라고 진단했다.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 아르헨티나 정부가 환율 통제(cepo)를 점진적으로 완화할 것

    Possible · Within months

  • 2027년 대선에서 경제 성과가 주요 쟁점이 될 것

    Likely · Within years

Open Questions

  • 밀레이 정부가 카발로의 환율 통제 철폐 제안을 받아들일지 여부
  • 외환보유고 확충을 위한 구체적 계획이 있는지
  • RIGI 제도의 향후 운용 방향
  • 2027년 대선에서 경제 이슈의 비중

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This article was originally published by 연합뉴스.

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