Famous expert shares ~ Lin Jingtang" How a sentence of "awe-inspiring" backfired and turned the Taipei election campaign into a crisis~

In the past two days, we have reorganized the YT live broadcast viewing numbers from November 2 to 11 on the Youying Dashboard, and compared them with Luo Dayou's exclusive interview with Tang Xianglong, Jiang Wanan's public praise of "inspiring people", and the responses from Tsai Ing-wen, the cultural circle, and politicians from different political parties.

Luo Dayou was supposed to be a cultural trump card picked up by the Kuomintang before the election. Unexpectedly, one of his words caused Jiang Wanan to once again lose the political image he had worked so hard to cultivate. Especially with only 16 days left before the November 28th vote, through Luo Dayou's words, did Jiang Wanan get political dividends, or did he create an unnecessary election crisis for himself?

1. Luo Dayou’s blue and red voice suddenly increased sharply, but the Chinese Kuomintang may not have taken advantage.

Luo Dayou's popularity surged, but Jiang Wanan may lose the middle vote. (Taken from the post) Let’s look at the live broadcast data first. After Luo Dayou accepted an exclusive interview with Tang Xianglong on November 10, the number of viewers of the pan-blue live broadcast suddenly reached about 9,700 on the 11th, and the number of viewers of the pan-red live broadcast reached 8,200. The total of the two was about 17,900. In comparison, Pan-Green only had about 2,100 viewers, while Pan-Blue and Pan-Red accounted for nearly 90% of the views, showing that this political storm first spread rapidly in the blue and red media circles.

I think this is exactly the political effect that the Chinese Kuomintang hoped to see most. After all, Luo Dayou is a musician who has influenced several generations. When he publicly criticizes the Democratic Progressive Party, questions Taiwan's cultural development, and even moves out of the province, it is naturally easy for him to become propaganda material for the pan-blue media. For the KMT, instead of criticizing the DPP every day, it seems more convincing to have a musician with cultural prestige come forward.

However, the increase in Luo Dayou's voice does not necessarily mean that more people agree with his political views, nor does it mean that Jiang Wanan can increase his votes. In particular, the controversy later expanded into disputes over gender discrimination, provincial identity, and cultural freedom. Cultural celebrities who might have added points to the Chinese Kuomintang instead became the trigger for voters to re-examine Chiang Wanan's values. This is probably an outcome the Kuomintang did not expect.

2. Jiang Wanan was so inspiring in the morning and rushed to clarify in the evening. What went wrong with his political judgment?

Yesterday (11/11) morning, when Jiang Wanan was asked about Luo Dayou's remarks criticizing Lai Qingde and Zhuo Rongtai, he did not hesitate to praise them as "inspiring and enlightening". He even believed that this was a manifestation of the character of a cultural person, and expressed his willingness to ask Luo Dayou for help in cultural policies. The problem is that Luo Dayou's interview not only criticizes the central government, but also involves controversies such as unmarried women with no children, provincial status, and whether cultural workers rely on government subsidies for food.

Unexpectedly, only a few hours later, Jiang Wanan clarified during the evening People's Party live broadcast that he agreed with Luo Dayou's criticism of the central government. As for judging women's contribution to the country based on marriage and childbirth, he did not agree.

Now it’s interesting! In the morning I was still enlightened and cultured, but in the evening I suddenly drew a clear line. Isn’t it embarrassing for the dignified mayor of Taipei to have to add explanations afterwards even when he publicly praises a political figure or cultural celebrity?

Of course, Jiang Wanan did not directly agree with Luo Dayou's remarks on marriage and childbirth this morning, but the responsibility of a politician is not only to answer reporters' questions, but also to judge the effect of his words. Especially as the mayor of the capital, when faced with highly controversial political speeches, he rushed to endorse the other party and waited until public opinion rebounded before quickly drawing a line. Is this a lack of political sensitivity, or is it a matter of putting aside even basic judgments in order to protect the conservative votes in one's own stratosphere?

3. Tsai Ing-wen's 240,000 likes are worth a fortune, but Luo Dayou's political attacks create recognition for his opponents.

Former President Tsai Ing-wen made a big move, but Luo Dayou's political attacks created recognition for his opponents. (Taken from Tsai Ing-wen’s Facebook) The most puzzling thing about Luo Dayou’s interview is that he actually mentioned that Tsai Ing-wen, Xiao Meiqin and Chen Ju have no children, questioning whether they really care about the next generation.

This discussion that equates women's public contributions with their choice of marriage and childbearing is not only incompatible with the concept of gender equality in modern society, but also ignores that what politicians should be tested for is their policies, abilities and public responsibilities, not their private life and family status.

Tsai Ing-wen's response was quite clever. Instead of confronting Luo Dayou, she borrowed his classic song "Childhood" to talk about that although she has no children, she still does her best to protect every child in Taiwan. As a result, this post received more than 240,000 likes in just seven hours. Luo Dayou originally tried to question Tsai Ing-wen's political responsibility by connecting with the next generation through childbirth, but instead gave Tsai Ing-wen an opportunity to reunite social sentiments.

From the perspective of political communication, this is a very typical reaction. Luo Dayou tried to strengthen his moral stance by denying the life choices of others; Tsai Ing-wen turned the discussion to the public value that all children deserve care.

Comparing the two, society will naturally form its own evaluation of who is more tolerant. What's even more ironic is that Jiang Wanan originally hoped to use Luo Dayou's cultural reputation to criticize the DPP, but in the end he may have to bear the political cost of this conflict of values.

4. Even the KMT itself does not agree with this. Jiang Wanan may have underestimated the reaction of women and middle voters.

In response to Luo Dayou's remarks, Jia Yongjie said: "Whether or not to have children is a personal life choice, not a society's scoring standard." (File photo) The most noteworthy thing about this controversy is not that DPP politicians have criticized Luo Dayou one after another, but that even some non-green camp people have publicly expressed their dissatisfaction. Including Taipei 101 Chairman Jia Yongjie criticized this as an old mentality. Kuomintang New Taipei City Councilor Dai Xiangyi also said that Luo Dayou's remarks touched her sensitive nerves, and it has nothing to do with political parties or blue or green. This means that freedom of marriage and childbearing is no longer a political party’s offense or defense, but is actually a social value that can be recognized by people with different political stances.

From a social psychology perspective, when politicians’ speeches touch upon ordinary people’s life experiences, voters may not react in accordance with their original blue-green stance.

Especially for women who are not married, do not plan to have children, or have been struggling between the workplace and family for a long time, their life choices have become the standard by which others evaluate their social contributions. This dissatisfaction may go beyond political party identification. If Jiang Wanan thinks that as long as he criticizes the DPP, he will get the applause of all blue-camp voters, he is probably totally wrong.

What's more, Jiang Wanan has long worked hard to create an image of a mayor who values ​​family, cares about parenting, and is gentle and rational. Now, because of a shocking sentence, he has been involved in a gender controversy that contradicts this image. Although there are no polls to prove that he has lost the central vote, the political image often does not collapse in one fell swoop. It happens over and over again, causing voters who were originally willing to believe in him to gradually begin to have doubts.

5. From being bullied by people from other provinces to the controversy over cultural subsidies, Luo Dayou may reawaken the political baggage that the Kuomintang wants to get rid of most.

KMT New Taipei City Councilor Dai Xiangyi also said that Luo Dayou's remarks touched her sensitive nerves, and that it had nothing to do with political parties or blue or green. (File photo) Another controversial statement made by Luo Dayou is that he claimed that people from other provinces have been bullied badly enough, and even questioned whether the political stance of cultural workers such as Ma Shifang was related to government subsidies.

Behind these remarks, in fact, there is still an imagination of provincial antagonism and political loyalty that was common in Taiwanese politics in the past. It seems that as long as a person supports the DPP, it is for profit; as long as cultural workers receive government subsidies, they lose the qualification to criticize independently.

The problem is that cultural workers have their own political stance, which is a normal thing in a democratic society. Even though the government provides cultural subsidies, it does not mean that the recipients have to speak for the ruling party.

If you suspect others of selling out their ideas just because they have different political stances, isn't this the censorship of political thought that Luo Dayou himself criticized? What's more, Taiwanese culture has already moved toward diversified development. Why should we still use the provincial framework of decades ago to understand today's society?

For Jiang Wanan, this part is probably more worthy of vigilance than the simple gender controversy. Over the years, he has worked hard to build a political persona that goes beyond the traditional dark blue image, trying to win over voters from different ethnic groups, generations and political positions. Nowadays, the public highly affirms a cultural figure who has rekindled the conflict between provincial origins, which inevitably makes the outside world question whether he represents a diverse and open Taipei, or is he still unable to get rid of the political baggage of the KMT in the past?

Another controversial statement made by Luo Dayou was that people from other provinces were bullied badly enough, and he even questioned whether the political stance of cultural workers such as Ma Shifang was related to government subsidies. (File photo) 6. With only 16 days left before the vote, Jiang Wanan’s most serious crisis may be that he has never been able to dominate his own election campaign.

If you put this incident back to the Taipei mayoral election in the past few months, you will find an increasingly obvious phenomenon. Jiang Wanan has continued to increase his media exposure, doing almost everything from accepting exclusive interviews, strengthening his family image, to intensively participating in Blue and White cooperation and political activities.

However, these exposures are often accompanied by new controversies, requiring him to spend more time explaining, clarifying, and even cleaning up the mess of political remarks that were not directly related to him.

In contrast, Shen Boyang did not join in personal attacks when faced with Luo Dayou's criticism of Taiwan's declining cultural standards. He further emphasized that it is everyone's freedom to criticize policies, and also pointed out that cultural policies and subsidies are moving towards diversified development.

This difference, on the one hand, is eager to use the criticism of cultural celebrities to add points to itself, on the other hand, it brings the controversy back to policy and free discussion, which is worthy of thought. The way the two respond may make voters have different evaluations of the mayor's political judgment.

I believe that the biggest harm caused by the Luo Dayou incident to Jiang Wanan is that he once again lost the initiative to set election issues.

In particular, the Battle of Guandu in Ocean Current is about to begin on November 15. Shen Boyang’s supporters are creating a new campaign story through independent participation, but Jiang Wanan is still busy explaining what exactly he agrees with Luo Dayou’s words. This ebb and flow of the election campaign is the most noteworthy political crisis in the last 16 days.

Luo Dayou has given the Chinese Kuomintang an additional cultural figure who is willing to criticize the DPP, but may have deprived Jiang Wanan of more room to win over centrist voters.

While Lan Ying was still complacent about the volume of an exclusive interview, he may not have realized that what Taipei citizens are really re-examining is no longer just who can criticize the DPP. The key point is who has the political judgment and values ​​to lead a diverse city.

A political attack intended to embarrass the DPP may end up embarrassing Jiang Wanan himself. The louder Luo Dayou's voice became, the political cost of his "inspiring" words may have been something Jiang Wanan never expected.

When faced with Luo Dayou's criticism of Taiwan's declining cultural standards, DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Boyang did not follow up with personal attacks. He further emphasized that it is everyone's freedom to criticize policies. (File photo)