Zhang Wuyue: Judging the direction of Taiwan policy from the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Army and the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China

The 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China in 2027 is approaching. Zhang Wuyue, a senior consultant at the National Policy Research Institute, pointed out that the direction of Taiwan policy can be judged from political developments such as the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Investigation director Chen Baili said that China continues to exert military and various types of compound pressure on Taiwan, and Taiwan's strategic environment becomes more complex.

The Outlook and Exploration Magazine and the Chinese Communist Party Studies Magazine affiliated to the Bureau of Investigation jointly held an academic seminar on "Taiwan-US-China Relations and the Situation in East Asia in 2026" with the Department of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan Normal University and the National Library. Experts and scholars at home and abroad were invited to analyze the U.S.-China strategic competition, the situation in the Taiwan Strait, regional security and geopolitical changes from the three major aspects of U.S.-China relations, the situation in East Asia and cross-strait relations.

Zhang Wuyue delivered a special speech titled "Geopolitics and the Game between the United States and China: Observation of Risk Indicators in the Taiwan Strait." He analyzed the new type of great power game between the United States and China and the "constructive strategic and stable relationship" between the United States and China from the perspective of global geopolitics and geo-economic development after Trump 2.0 came to power. He also observed the characteristics and trends of the interactions among Taiwan, the United States, and China from the Sichuan-Xi meeting and international summits.

Zhang Wuyue also observed political developments such as the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China in 2027, and the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China, to explore the possible direction of China's Taiwan policy, and used the Taiwan Strait peace and war risk indicators to assess the development of the cross-strait situation and strategic responses.

In his speech, Chen Baili pointed out that after Trump came to power in his second term, the United States adjusted its global strategy and foreign policy, and competition between the United States and China continued to extend to areas such as security, economy and trade, technology, supply chain, artificial intelligence, and global governance. Competition and dependence on both sides coexisted at the same time.

Chen Baili mentioned that China continues to exert military and various types of compound pressure on Taiwan, and East Asian countries are also adjusting their security and foreign policies in response to regional situations. The situation in the Taiwan Strait has been closely linked to the strategic competition between the United States and China and the development of the East Asia region. The influencing factors are not limited to military security. Economy, trade, science and technology, diplomacy and the internal affairs of each country may affect the regional situation. How to grasp the changes in the situation, identify potential risks, and think about Taiwan's response has become an important issue at present.