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BackSu Qiaohui is in power in New Taipei after falling behind in the polls? Li Sichuan responded
Su Qiaohui is in power in New Taipei after falling behind in the polls? Li Sichuan responded
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自由时报15 minutes agoPolitics2 min readChinaView original

Su Qiaohui is in power in New Taipei after falling behind in the polls? Li Sichuan responded

The latest poll by "Fengcan Media" shows that Su Qiaohui's support rate is 44.0%, and Li Sichuan's 35.6%. The gap between the two parties has widened.

New Taipei mayor electionSu QiaohuiLi Sichuan

Quick Look

The latest New Taipei mayoral election poll by "Fengcan Media" shows that DPP candidate Su Qiaohui's support is 44.0%, leading KMT candidate Li Sichuan's 35.6%, with a gap of 8.4 percentage points between the two sides; Li Sichuan lags behind in 10 of the 11 city councilor districts, Banqiao District lags behind by more than 9 percentage points, and traditional Shenzhen District Zhonghe and Xindian also lost to Su Qiaohui.

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Why It Matters

There are 15 days left until the end of the year for the mayoral election in New Taipei City. Whether the KMT candidate Li Sichuan can successfully succeed the current mayor Hou Youyi will face a severe test to maintain the power of the largest municipality in Lanying. "Fengcan Media" commissioned Professor Zhang Youzong of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University to design a planning poll. It adopted a mixed model, combining CATI telephone interviews and online surveys, and conducted it among voters with registered residence in New Taipei City and the right to vote.

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With 15 days left until the end of the year, the New Taipei City mayoral candidate Li Sichuan of the Kuomintang will successfully succeed the current mayor Hou Youyi, and whether he can maintain the power of the largest municipality in Lanying faces a severe test. According to the latest poll by "Fengcan Media", DPP candidate Su Qiaohui leads Li Sichuan by 8.4 percentage points. In response to this, Li Sichuan responded in an interview that all polls should be consulted, especially before the polls are closed, there should be many polls. If there are any worthy reference points in these polls, he will strengthen them.

"Fengcan Media" released the latest New Taipei City mayoral election poll today. Su Qiaohui leads Li Sichuan with 44.0% support, 35.6%. The distance between the two sides has widened to 8.4 percentage points. In addition, among the political sectors of New Taipei City, neutral and new areas have always been regarded as traditional deep blue areas. However, the results of this poll have broken convention. Among the 11 city councilor constituencies, Li Sichuan trailed Su Qiaohui in 10 of them. In the "Tielan" constituency, Li Sichuan only led by nearly 3 percentage points in Yonghe District. Zhonghe and Xindian have also lost to Su Qiaohui. In Banqiao District, which has the largest population and can determine the outcome, Li Sichuan also lags behind by more than 9 percentage points.

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In this regard, Li Sichuan said in an interview that all polls should be consulted, especially before the polls are closed, there should be many polls. If there are any worthy reference points in these polls, he will strengthen them, so thank you.

The poll was commissioned by Fengcan Media to design and plan for the project, using a "mixed model" approach, combining CATI telephone interviews and online surveys, targeting voters with registered residence in New Taipei City and voting rights. The telephone interviews were conducted by a comprehensive market research company, and the online survey was jointly conducted by National Taiwan University's Dynamic Public Opinion Research Platform and Chuangshiji.

There are 2,033 valid samples (1,005 local telephone surveys and 1,028 online surveys). The survey combines local telephone and Internet samples, adjusts the ratio of local telephone and Internet samples to 1:1, and then weights it according to New Taipei City's population gender, age, and administrative district structure. The survey period was from November 4 to 10 this year. The sampling error was at a 95% confidence level, and the overall percentage sampling error was within plus or minus 2.17%.

Open Questions

  • Can Li Sichuan recover his lagging support in the remaining 15 days of the election?
  • The specific reasons for the shift of voters in Banqiao District and traditional Shenzhen Districts such as Zhonghe and Xindian
  • What specific strategies will Li Sichuan adopt to strengthen his campaign?

Related Topics

New Taipei mayor election
PeopleLi SichuanHou YouyiSu QiaohuiZhang Youzong
OrganizationsFengcan MediaChinese KuomintangDemocratic Progressive PartyNational Taiwan University
PlacesNew Taipei CityZhonghe DistrictXindian DistrictYonghe District
TopicsSu QiaohuiLi SichuanHou YouyipollKuomintangDemocratic Progressive Party
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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