Saudi Arabia is leading the recovery of OPEC Plus production to pre-war levels

The production of the OPEC Plus alliance regained a large portion of its levels prior to the Iranian war during October, driven by a sharp increase in Saudi Arabia’s production, which informed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise its production to the highest level since the outbreak of the war, despite the continuing disturbances obstructing the movement of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Data from OPEC's monthly report, issued on Wednesday, showed that the coalition's crude oil production rose to 41.23 million barrels per day in October, an increase of about 2.04 million barrels per day compared to September.

This level represents about 97 percent of the coalition’s production recorded in February, amounting to 42.72 million barrels per day, according to Reuters calculations based on the organization’s data.

The increase reflects the ability of Saudi Arabia and other producers in the Gulf to restore some of the supplies, despite the continuing repercussions of the war and the restrictions imposed on the movement of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Data indicate that some producers were able to overcome these turmoil through alternative routes, including ship-to-ship oil transfers, in addition to taking advantage of pipelines that allow crude to be exported away from the strait.

Saudi Arabia is at the forefront of the increase

Saudi Arabia (OPEC) reported that its crude oil production rose to 10.563 million barrels per day in October, compared to about 8.372 million barrels per day in September, an increase of nearly 26 percent, reaching its highest levels since February, when it recorded 10.882 million barrels per day.

The increase came after the Kingdom raised its production in February, before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, in a move that reflected its willingness to boost supplies in light of expectations of escalating market turmoil. The numbers show that Riyadh increased its production significantly during October, despite the continued risks facing the export movement in the region.

The increase was not limited to Saudi Arabia; Iraq informed the organization that it had raised its production to about 4.9 million barrels per day in October, which is the highest level since the beginning of the war, while secondary sources estimated its production at about 4.491 million barrels per day, making it close to the level set for it.

Russian and Nigerian production rises

In Russia, oil production increased by about 41 thousand barrels per day during October compared to September, reaching 8.668 million barrels per day, according to data from secondary sources included in the OPEC report.

This rise comes months after Russian production declined under the impact of Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure, including oil refineries. Last month, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the energy sector between Russia and Ukraine, but the agreement did not materially hold, even though it provided a period of decline in attacks on Russian refining facilities, which may have helped support production.

Kazakhstan's production also increased by about 34 thousand barrels per day on a monthly basis, reaching 1.887 million barrels per day.

In Nigeria, average crude oil production reached 1.69 million barrels per day in October, according to data from the Petroleum Regulatory Authority, marking the sixth consecutive month in which the country was able to meet its production quota within OPEC. Production, excluding condensates, amounted to about 1.51 million barrels per day, slightly exceeding its quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.

The Authority attributed the improvement in production to the increased efficiency of operational processes, improved production continuity, and increased efficiency of transporting crude from fields to export ports.

OPEC confirms demand expectations

On the market level, OPEC kept its expectations for growth in global oil demand during the years 2026 and 2027 unchanged, after it reduced its estimates of demand growth for six consecutive months.

The organization expects global demand to rise by about 180,000 barrels per day in 2026, while it is likely to grow by 2.55 million barrels per day in 2027, bringing average global consumption to 108.3 million barrels per day.

These expectations come at a time when the increase in production during October shows signs of a recovery in supplies from the Gulf region, after months of unrest that led a number of producers to reduce production or disrupt part of their exports.

The return of production gains additional importance as OPEC Plus prepares to evaluate the maximum production capacity of its members, a review that is scheduled to be completed in the coming days, in preparation for using its results to determine target production levels for the year 2027.

The alliance is scheduled to hold its next meeting online on November 29, to discuss production goals for next year, at a time when the members’ situations vary between countries that have regained a large part of their pumping capacity, and others that still face operational restrictions or export-related challenges.

The impact of the new consumer protection system goes beyond regulating the relationship between individuals and commercial establishments to changing the nature of daily transactions in Saudi markets, by enhancing transparency, preventing harmful practices, and facilitating claiming rights when harm occurs. This puts the efficiency of the application and the speed of processing complaints to the test of transforming statutory guarantees into actual protection that customers feel.

The lawyer and legal advisor, Dr. Ta'il Bin Fahm, in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, said that the new system will contribute to developing the relationship between the consumer and commercial establishments, by enhancing clarity and transparency in transactions, and consolidating the concept of mutual rights and obligations, making the purchasing experience and obtaining services more reliable and stable.

He says that the most important thing that the consumer aspires to is the transition from the stage of claiming rights after the occurrence of damage to the stage of preventing harmful practices before they occur, through clarity of information related to products, services, prices, guarantees, contract terms, and complaints handling mechanisms.

Facilitating access to rights

Ibn Fahm points out that the most prominent previous challenges were the difficulty of proving violations, the multiplicity of concerned parties, and the lengthy procedures for resolving disputes, especially related to warranties and product defects. Also, some affected people are reluctant to claim their rights when the cost of follow-up exceeds the value of the damage.

He believes that overcoming this requires simplifying complaints procedures, accelerating their resolution, clarifying escalation paths, and activating digital channels to follow them up, stressing that effective protection is not achieved simply by recognizing rights, but by facilitating obtaining them.

At the level of commercial establishments, Ibn Fahm estimates that strengthening regulatory protection will lead to increased attention to the quality of services, the credibility of advertisements, after-sales services, and the speed of handling customer complaints, which will be reflected in the level of performance and business practices.

He believes that the most important impact of the system is not limited to addressing violations, but rather extends to enhancing consumer confidence in the market and creating a competitive environment in which respect for consumer rights becomes an essential part of the quality of commercial performance.

The application determines the size of the effect

Although the system represents an opportunity to develop the level of protection for customers in the Saudi market, especially with the expansion of e-commerce and the diversity of products and services, Ibn Fahm believes that the size of its actual impact will be determined by the efficiency of its application, and not merely by its issuance. Legislation establishes the legal basis for protection, while oversight, executive procedures, and community awareness turn this protection into a tangible reality.

It identifies several factors for the success of the system, most notably the clarity of the executive regulations, the efficiency of market oversight, the speed of handling complaints, the effectiveness of penalties, the ease of obtaining compensation when it is proven that it is due, in addition to raising the level of awareness of rights and duties among individuals and commercial establishments.

Ibn Fahm stresses the importance of measuring the system’s impact with practical indicators, such as the average duration of complaints processing, the rate of dispute resolution, the level of consumer satisfaction, and the extent of the decline in repeated violations.

He emphasizes that the success of the system is measured by the extent to which individuals feel safe and confident in their daily dealings, and by their ability to obtain their rights without complex procedures or costs disproportionate to the damage, indicating that the primary goal is not to increase the number of texts and penalties, but rather to build a market in which consumer rights are automatically respected, and in which fair trade practices become an established rule and not an exception.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country aims to raise the rate of electricity in the global energy mix to 35 percent by 2035, reduce the growth of waste production by 50 percent, and increase the use of recycled materials in industrial activities, as part of the climate action agenda adopted by Turkey’s presidency of the COP31 conference.

Erdogan added, in his opening speech to the conference in Antalya, that his country seeks to make the conference a new station in confronting the climate crisis, saying: “We hope that this conference will constitute a new turning point in combating the climate crisis, and I believe that we will achieve this with your support.”

He pointed out that Turkey assumed the presidency of the conference with the aim of transforming it into an “implementation conference,” focusing on transforming climate pledges into practical steps, adding that the cooperation that his country has established with Australia, with which it shares the presidency of the conference, will give efforts to combat climate change “new momentum.”

From pledges to implementation

Erdogan said that the world has made progress in putting the issue of climate change on the agenda of countries since the first climate conference held in Berlin 31 years ago, but he pointed out that this progress at the level of ideas and decisions has not been reflected to the same extent in implementation.

He added: “With every minute we fail to achieve the goals set in the Paris Agreement, the risks and costs we face continue to rise,” calling for a move from discussing challenges to taking practical measures.

He continued: “We have two options; Either we look at the difficulties and complain, or we cling to hope and move,” he said, noting that his country’s presidency of the conference chose to focus on implementation and building a model that future conferences can benefit from.

Renewable energy and zero neutrality

In the context of Turkey's domestic trends, Erdogan said that his country continues to work to achieve the goal of zero emissions neutrality by 2053, by restructuring the energy, industry, transportation and agricultural sectors, and placing the green transformation at the core of its economic activities.

He added: “We are increasing our investments in renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and working to expand clean transportation solutions,” noting that the share of renewable energy sources has exceeded 60 percent of the installed electricity generation capacity in Turkey.

He explained that the climate law approved by his country strengthened the legal and institutional foundations for structural transformation, while the water use efficiency campaign aims to protect water resources, saying that “every drop of water represents a source of life that must be preserved.”

Regarding the afforestation file, he pointed out that Türkiye plants millions of seeds and seedlings annually, pointing to the declaration of November 11 as a national afforestation day, which coincides with the opening of the conference.

2035 targets and the “Zero Waste” initiative

He said that the climate action agenda for the COP 31 presidency was prepared through strategic partnerships with the International Energy Agency and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, with the aim of benefiting from their expertise in the energy transition files and economic sectors.

Within this agenda, Turkey aims to raise the rate of electricity in the global energy mix to 35 percent by 2035, reduce the growth of waste production by 50 percent, and increase the use of circular materials in industrial activities.

Erdogan highlighted the “Zero Waste” initiative launched by his country in 2017 under the leadership of Emine Erdogan, saying that the rate of recycling and commercial recovery rose from about 13 percent when the initiative was launched to nearly 40 percent by the end of last year, while 90 million tons of waste were reintroduced into the economy.

He added that the adoption of a resolution by the United Nations General Assembly to designate March 30 as International Zero Waste Day constitutes an example of the possibility of transforming local initiatives into international efforts.

Gaza and the repercussions of environmental wars

In another aspect of his speech, Erdogan linked the climate crisis to the repercussions of disputes and conflicts, noting that wars, migration, hunger, and poverty weaken international solidarity. He cited what is happening in the Gaza Strip, saying that what is happening there “is not only genocide, but also environmental genocide,” according to his description.

He pointed to the damage to ancient olive trees, soil and water pollution, and the destruction of infrastructure. He also spoke about the suffering of the displaced from rain and floods, calling for the provision of shelter and humanitarian aid to the population.

Erdogan concluded his speech by calling for practical consensuses to be reached during the conference, saying: “Let us finally stop the greedy mentality that sacrifices the environment for the sake of the economy,” adding that what humanity needs is “a global agreement on compassion between man and nature” that guarantees leaving a cleaner, greener, and more just planet for future generations.