Su Qiaohui leads Li Sichuan by 8.4 percentage points in the poll! Wu Jingyi looks at it this way

Whether the Kuomintang New Taipei mayor candidate Li Sichuan can successfully succeed the current mayor Hou Youyi will face a severe test to maintain the power of the largest municipality in Lanying. The latest poll by "Fengcan Media" shows that Su Qiaohui, the New Taipei mayor candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, leads Li Sichuan by 8.4 percentage points. Zhonghe and Xindian, which are regarded as traditional deep blue areas, are also ahead. Media person Wu Jingyi analyzed in a Facebook post the possible reasons why Hou Youyi's 70% satisfaction is difficult to translate into succession support for Li Sichuan.

Wu Jingyi said, why did the gap in iron ticket mobilization widen to 11%? Su Qiaohui overtook Li Sichuan in terms of "support and municipal capabilities". The latest poll by Feng Can and Professor Chang You-tsung of National Taiwan University showed that Su Qiaohui had the upper hand both in local calls and online. After further questioning, Su Qiaohui led Li Sichuan with 44.0% and 35.6%. More importantly, among those who said they "will definitely vote", Su Qiaohui's lead stretched to 11 percentage points. Moreover, voters not only look at political parties, but more than 40% of citizens believe that Su Qiaohui is more capable of solving municipal problems, beating Li Sichuan by nearly 8 percentage points, which means that her professionalism in governance has won the support of the majority of voters.

Wu Jingyi pointed out that Hou Youyi has been recognized by more than 70% of the public in the past eight years, but this high popularity has not been successfully handed over to Li Sichuan. Data shows that among voters who are satisfied with Hou Youyi, more than 30% defected to vote for Su Qiaohui. On the other hand, nearly 60% of Su Qiaohui's supporters affirmed Hou Youyi's political performance. This shows that New Taipei voters are increasingly "choosing people first". Appreciating Mayor Hou does not mean accepting all successors from the same party. It may not be easy for the blue camp to directly transfer votes by relying on the halo of governance.

Wu Jingyi continued to point out that the blue and white platform will deduct points? More than 45% of Ke's fans believe that Huang's explanation is not helpful. Why do nearly 30% of Ke's fans switch to Su Qiaohui? Does the combination of blue and white really work in New Taipei? Although most people who identify with the People's Party have returned to support Lee Sichuan, looking at the entire public, more than 45% think that the Ko Wenzhe and Huang Guochang platforms are "unhelpful" to Lee Sichuan. Even neutral voters are more negative than optimistic. What is even more noteworthy is that nearly 30% of the voters who voted for Ke Wenzhe in the 2024 presidential election have now turned to support Su Qiaohui. It seems that Blue and White on the same stage can only consolidate the basic base at best, and there is a big question mark whether it can attract more spillover votes.

Wu Jingyi analyzed that Su Qiaohui swept the 10 major constituencies, and the women's power and youth groups won more than 12%! This time, Su Qiaohui was very popular among women and the young generation aged 20 to 49. Female voters won by 12 percentage points, and those in their 40s won by more than 17 percentage points. Reflected in the regional map, Su Qiaohui won 10 of the 11 congressional districts in New Taipei in one breath, while Li Sichuan only held on to a small victory in Yonghe District. Even in Zhonghe and Xindian constituencies, which were considered to be blue camp vote warehouses in the past, Su Qiaohui slightly overtook them by 2 to 3 percentage points. Although it cannot be directly concluded that the blue camp vote warehouse has turned around, there are indeed signs of loosening in the traditional territory.

Wu Jingyi added that more than 70% of voters said that the object of support has not changed, but 7.5% admitted that they had changed their minds. Among these people who changed their minds, nearly 60% now support Su Qiaohui. However, apart from cross-district topics, the real decisive point is actually the "party-neutral voters" who account for nearly 30% of New Taipei. Currently, blue and green are evenly matched among this group of people, and more than half have yet to express their opinions. Whoever can impress this group of waiting and watching neutral voters will be the key to the final victory.

This survey was designed and planned by Professor Zhang Youzong of the Department of Political Science of National Taiwan University entrusted by "Fengcan Media". There are 2,033 valid samples (1,005 local telephone surveys and 1,028 online surveys). The survey merged local telephone and online samples, adjusted the ratio of local telephone and online samples to 1:1, and then weighted it according to the gender, age and administrative district structure of the New Taipei City population. The investigation time was from November 4th to 10th, 115th year of the Republic of China. The sampling error is within a 95% confidence level, and the overall percentage sampling error is within plus or minus 2.17%.