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台南市議員第一選區選情分析:8搶5現任優勢明顯
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自由时报1 hour agoPolitics2 min readChina

台南市議員第一選區選情分析:8搶5現任優勢明顯

民進黨陳亭妃母雞效應與藍白合策略下的選戰觀察

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台南市議員第一選區應選席次減為5席,呈現8搶5局面。民進黨陳亭妃發揮母雞效應,現任議員選情相對穩定。國民黨蔡育輝採取策略性藍白合,支持民眾黨陳詩薇搶攻婦女保障名額,選戰焦點在於現任優勢與藍白合作的實際票源轉移效果。

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Why It Matters

台南市議員第一選區因人口數變動,應選席次由6席減為5席,包含1席婦女保障名額。前議員張世賢去世及劉米山不再參選,釋出約2萬2000多票的選票空間。

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民進黨台南市長參選人陳亭妃(前左2)黨內整合不錯,在第一選區和議員李宗翰(前左1)、沈家鳳(前右1)、王宣貿的聯合競選,拉抬市長、議員選情。

第5屆台南市議員第一選區(新營、鹽水、柳營、白河、後壁、東山)有8人登記參選,應選席次因人口數由6席變為5席(包含1席婦女保障名額),選情卻不如第4屆激烈,看好5位現任議員占優勢,雖有「藍白合」選戰話題,但有無「票房」尚有疑問。

第一選區是「8搶5」局面,民進黨提名現任議員王宣貿、李宗翰、沈家鳳競選連任;國民黨因「藍白合」,僅提名現任議員蔡育輝競選連任,台灣民眾黨提名新人陳詩薇參選,搶攻婦女保障名額;另無黨籍有現任議員趙昆原,以及新人張新斛、侯陸太參選。

國民黨前議員張世賢在任內去世,民進黨劉米山也不再參選,少了2位實力派,第5屆議員選情反而未因席次少1席而比本屆激烈,張、劉本屆得票數共有2萬2000多票,2人的支持者、樁腳成了各方爭取對象;一般看好5位現任議員尋求連任占有現任優勢,其他3位新人在知名度、選民支持度有待突破。

民進黨採市長、議員聯合競選,拉抬選情,台南市長參選人陳亭妃獲提名後,勤跑基層更未懈怠,黨內整合不錯,發揮「母雞」效應,加上3位現任黨籍議員問政表現傑出,服務勤快,喊出全壘打。無黨籍趙昆原本屆得票數高居第二,基層實力扎實,和陳亭妃素有交情。

國民黨僅提名本屆得票數最高的蔡育輝競選連任,選情穩定,是頭一個「策略性」支持第一選區「藍白合」推出女性參選人,以牽制沈家鳳,國民黨謝龍介、民眾黨柯文哲、黃國昌接連為陳詩薇助選拉抬選情,添加「藍白合」火力盼為陳詩薇加分,成為「選戰話題」,但能否影響選情,絕不是「喊票」就成功,關鍵在蔡育輝視選情發展是否願意「分票」和陳詩薇自己的努力取得藍白選民的認同;沈家鳳穩紮穩打,對手只有一個,贏了陳詩薇就當選。

Open Questions

  • 藍白合策略是否能有效轉移選票給陳詩薇?
  • 蔡育輝是否會採取分票策略?

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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