The year-on-year increase in CPI rebounded in August. PPI has increased year-on-year for 6 consecutive months - what information can be read from the latest price data?

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 9 showed that in August, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year. What information can be read from the latest price data?

The reporter noticed that the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and core CPI in August both showed an upward trend. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI ended two consecutive months of downward trend and rose to 0.8%.

"The year-on-year increase in CPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the expansion of energy price increases." Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the year-on-year increase in energy prices expanded from 0.6% last month to 4.1% this month, affecting the year-on-year increase in CPI by approximately 0.28 percentage points.

The key word for the chain is also "recovery". In August, the CPI changed from a decrease to an increase month-on-month, from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.4%.

"Affected by price changes in the international market, domestic gasoline prices increased by 7.2% from a month-on-month decrease of 10.7%, affecting the month-on-month increase in CPI by approximately 0.21 percentage points." Dong Lijuan said.

The seasonal rise in food prices is also an important factor driving the month-on-month rise in CPI. Dong Lijuan analyzed that due to the influence of hot and rainy weather and the change of seasonal vegetables, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 5.5%. Affected by factors such as laying hens resting in summer and the reduction of pigs for slaughter, egg prices increased by 2.4% from a decrease of 2.1% in the previous month. Pork prices increased by 1.3%. The above three items combined affected the CPI to increase by about 0.12 percentage points month-on-month.

Xu Guangjian, vice president of the China Price Association, said that food and energy prices are greatly affected by short-term factors. To observe price trends, we must not only look at the CPI, but also the changes in the core CPI after deducting food and energy. The year-on-year increase in core CPI in August continued to stabilize at around "1%". In particular, the prices of some industrial consumer goods and services increased significantly, reflecting the impact of the improvement and expansion of household consumption on prices.

"In addition, to judge price changes, we should not only look at the single-month data, but also the cumulative monthly changes. In the first eight months, the CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 1.1%. Compared with the whole year of last year and the same period last year, the growth rates have rebounded significantly. Although international imported factors have caused disturbances to prices in some domestic fields in individual months, the trend of moderate rise in consumer prices has not changed." Xu Guangjian said.

It is worth noting that under the combined influence of international and domestic factors, in August, the industrial producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.4% from a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%; it increased by 3.8% year-on-year. After exiting the downward range in March, it has increased year-on-year for six consecutive months.

Changes in PPI trends are, on the one hand, affected by the upward transmission of international commodity prices. Dong Lijuan said that in August, the rise in international crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices drove up the prices of related domestic industries. Among them, the prices of oil exploration, refined petroleum product manufacturing, and organic chemical raw material manufacturing increased by 10.4%, 4.1%, and 0.9% month-on-month respectively.

On the other hand, industrial transformation and upgrading have led to increased demand and rising prices in some industries.

"With the acceleration of the cultivation of new driving forces, the 'smart' and 'green' content of my country's industrial development continues to increase. In August, the price of electronic circuit manufacturing increased by 3.5% month-on-month, the price of virtual reality equipment manufacturing increased by 1.9%, and the prices of biomass fuel processing and comprehensive utilization of waste resources both increased by 0.3%." Dong Lijuan said.

Xu Guangjian analyzed that in August, both the ex-factory price of industrial producers and the purchase price continued the trend of rising from falling to rising since March. The positive changes in PPI reflect the improvement in the supply and demand relationship in some industries driven by factors such as domestic industrial transformation and upgrading, comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition, and are conducive to enhancing corporate development confidence.

"However, it should also be noted that the year-on-year increase in purchase prices in recent months has continued to be higher than the ex-factory price, indicating that upstream raw material prices have increased relatively significantly. We need to pay close attention to the operating pressure that rising costs may bring to midstream and downstream companies, and actively stabilize price fluctuations by stabilizing the supply chain and optimizing production capacity layout." Xu Guangjian said.

Liu Fang, a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that overall, under the background of giving full play to the effectiveness of existing policies, timely planning and issuing pragmatic and effective incremental policies, and increasing countercyclical adjustments, positive factors supporting moderate price increases are constantly accumulating.

"With the effectiveness of macro policies, residents' employment and income expectations have improved, domestic demand potential is expected to be released faster, and new momentum in areas such as artificial intelligence has been accelerated, which will also continue to drive the prices of related products to run at high levels. At the same time, the construction of a national unified market is advanced in depth, and the price transmission chain will be further unblocked. It is expected that in the next step, the price operation will continue the positive pattern of moderate CPI increase and stable PPI increase." Liu Fang said.