Europe will not be able to fill gas storage facilities to 80% by November 1

Europe will not be able to reach the reduced level of 80% filling of underground gas storage facilities by November 1.

To achieve a fill level of at least 80% by the beginning of winter, Europeans need to increase the gas injection rate to 0.25 p.p. per day, but the current rate is about 0.2 p.p. per day.

Current stock levels increase the risk of gas shortages in the upcoming heating season, which will keep gas prices high in Europe.

MOSCOW, September 23 - RIA Novosti. Europe will not have time to fill its underground gas storage facilities (UGS) by the beginning of the winter season - November 1, despite the reduction in the required filling level to 80%, says Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager of Alfa Capital Management Company.

The European Union (EU), against the backdrop of the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz and fears of interruptions in fuel supplies, decided to lower the required filling level of gas storage facilities in the Union countries by the beginning of the winter season from 90% to 80%, EC representative Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told RIA Novosti in June.

“Europe will not be able to achieve the reduced target of 80% filling of underground gas storage facilities by November 1, 90% is unattainable,” Scriabin told RIA Novosti.

According to him, in order to reach the level of filling storage at least 80% by the beginning of winter, Europeans need to increase the rate of gas injection - up to 0.25 percentage points. per day. However, as Scriabin noted, in recent weeks the pace has averaged about 0.2 percentage points. per day.

In addition, to achieve the goal of filling UGS facilities, Scriabin noted, a very warm autumn and coordinated actions at the level of EU governments to purchase additional volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are needed. And also a possible limitation of gas and energy consumption in order to save “blue fuel”, which has already been pumped into storage.

The pace of filling in the coming weeks will be determined by two factors: human and natural, Scriabin said. The first depends on the efforts of Europeans to increase the rate of injection of gas storage facilities through additional purchases of gas, the second depends on the current demand for energy and its impact on net receipts into underground gas storage facilities.

“The current level of reserves increases the risk of gas shortages in the upcoming heating season, especially towards the end of the season, which will maintain high gas prices in Europe,” the expert concluded.

According to the Association of Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), at the end of the gas day on September 21, the average storage capacity in Europe was 70.49 billion cubic meters of gas, or 70.14%. The current rate is 15.58 percentage points lower than the average level for this date over the past five years. And gas reserves have never been at such a low level since monitoring and data collection began in 2011.

According to the European Commission (EC), underground gas storage facilities play a key role in ensuring the reliability of gas supply in Europe, making it possible to cover up to a third of the EU's needs in winter. The gas storage regulation, adopted to optimize preparations for the winter heating season in June 2022, set a goal for EU countries to fill UGS facilities to 90% by November 1.