
The International Organization for Migration confirms the sinking of a boat heading to Yemen, coinciding with the exchange of accusations of “invasion” between Addis Ababa and Asmara.
109 migrants died and 116 others went missing after a boat capsized off the coast of Djibouti, while military tension and mutual accusations of “invasion” escalate between Ethiopia and Eritrea against the backdrop of the conflict in the Tigray region and ambitions to access the Red Sea.
AI-generated summary
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea deteriorated after the Tigray War, and Ethiopia demands a sovereign sea port through the Eritrean port of Assab.
At least 109 migrants died and 116 others went missing after a boat capsized off the coast of Djibouti, according to the International Organization for Migration.
The organization said that the boat was on its way from Djibouti to Yemen. She added that 52 men, 42 women, and 15 children were among the victims.
“This is a tragic loss of life,” said Alexander Kossak, head of the organization’s mission in Djibouti. He added: “Our teams are on the ground alongside local authorities to provide emergency assistance. “This tragedy is a reminder of the dangers migrants face along this migration route as they pursue economic opportunities.”
Survivors said the boat capsized near Johiri, north of Obock, last Thursday evening. The International Organization for Migration said that more than 80 people survived the accident, all of them Ethiopians.
The International Organization for Migration said: “Poverty, insecurity and the growing repercussions of climate change are pushing many to undertake this journey, despite the escalation of unrest across the Middle East.”
The International Organization for Migration reported that it was providing assistance to 64 survivors at a migrant center in the city of Obock. She added, "The Djiboutian authorities are continuing search and rescue operations amid growing concerns about the fate of the missing people."
The International Organization for Migration has monitored the crossing of more than 20,000 people from Ethiopia to Djibouti since September 10.
According to the organization, more than 900 migrants were killed or went missing on the sea route to Yemen in 2025, while the number of those trying to take this route increased by 18 percent.
A boat sank in March 2026, killing nine people and leaving 45 others missing.
The International Organization for Migration called on donors and partners to strengthen support for Djibouti’s response, including search and rescue operations and life-saving assistance.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea are witnessing a sharp deterioration in the wake of renewed confrontations in the Tigray region. Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of supporting the rebels, while the latter denies any involvement in the recent escalation, and considers its involvement in the conflict “an attempt to invade and seize the port of Assab” and gain access to the Red Sea.
Asharq Al-Awsat surveyed the opinions of two Eritrean and Ethiopian experts, who conveyed two contradictory points of view about the reason for the escalation of tension between the two countries. The Eritrean expert accused Addis Ababa of trying to involve Asmara in its ongoing battle with the Tigray Liberation Front since September 23. Because it “covets the port of Assab.” On the other hand, an Ethiopian expert believes that Asmara’s story regarding Addis Ababa’s movements towards the port of Assab is incorrect, “especially since it is without evidence, and contradicts Ethiopia’s efforts to reach the sea through dialogue in a peaceful manner and not to fight a new war.”
The port of Assab is located in southeastern Eritrea at the entrance to the Gulf of Assab, and enjoys a location very close to international trade lines and the Bab el-Mandab Strait. With Abiy Ahmed coming to power in Ethiopia in April 2018, he proposed what he called “port diplomacy” to restore the sea port through dialogue again, after his country lost the port of Assab in 1993 following the independence of Eritrea at the time, and his country’s tendency to rely mainly on the ports of Djibouti.
In a letter on Saturday, Eritrea called on the UN Security Council to condemn Ethiopia’s “declaration of war” against it, warning that this would lead to destabilizing the region, according to what Agence France-Presse reported.
Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh said that these accusations are part of “an Ethiopian plan to justify an aggressive war,” and urged the United Nations to intervene based on “Chapter Seven” of the United Nations Charter, which allows for measures to be taken that vary between imposing sanctions and taking military action, according to what Reuters reported on Saturday.
Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel also denied, in a post on Friday on the X platform, the validity of the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry’s accusation of acts of aggression, stressing that Addis Ababa is working to exploit the current conflict to seize the port of Assab in Eritrea with the aim of providing an outlet to the Red Sea. He referred to a statement by the Ethiopian Deputy Chief of Staff, Abibao Tadesse, last September 27, in which he said that “the attack launched in Tigray will not stop there,” and that “Mekele (the region’s capital) is just a transit station, and our final destination is Assab, and our main goal is to raise our flag on the Red Sea.”
For his part, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gideon Timotheus said on Friday that Eritrean forces had penetrated a distance of up to 60 kilometers into the country, according to Reuters.
The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, in a letter to the United Nations Security Council, on Friday, that it “has no choice but to defend itself” against what it described as a “comprehensive invasion” launched by Eritrea.
In this regard, Abdul Qadir Muhammad Ali, an Eritrean expert in African affairs, believes that “the port of Assab has become coveted by Ethiopia in recent years,” noting that “it is trying, with recent repeated statements, to pave the way for intervention in Asmara and seizing the port.” He points out that “amid this Ethiopian uproar, Addis Ababa and any international body did not provide evidence or legal arguments to prove the allegations of the Eritrean presence in its territories, which makes them mere allegations that have no legal basis, and confirms that they are seeking to deliberately cause tension in the atmosphere for their own goal.”
On the other hand, the Ethiopian expert in African affairs, Musa Shehu, believes that “the Eritrean accusation that Ethiopia is creating tension in preparation for the invasion of Assab remains within the framework of a political narrative for which there is no conclusive evidence,” stressing that “Ethiopia’s quest for a sustainable sea port is not a declaration of war, but rather a legitimate economic and security issue.” Sheikho admits that “Assab Port has become a symbol of disagreement and tension between the two countries.”
This tension comes as Ethiopian government forces continue to make field gains in the Tigray region over the past few days, according to Reuters. Ethiopian Airlines announced the resumption of its flights to Mekele, the capital of Tigray, on October 11.
Amid the mutual accusations, Abdul Qadir Muhammad believes that “the chances of preventing a slide towards a military confrontation remain on the condition that there is effective mediation to calm the discourse and the borders, in order to address the deep fundamental problems between the two countries. Otherwise, matters will reach a clash, and Eritrea will then be defending itself against the ambitions of Ethiopia.”
In turn, Sheikho believes that the military escalation threatens the stability and security of the Red Sea and entire regional trade, calling for the necessity of adopting a direct negotiation path with regional guarantees and mutual respect for sovereignty, to avoid entering into a vicious circle of conflicts. He concludes that “Ethiopia needs a safe and sustainable outlet, not a new war, and Eritrea needs sovereign guarantees, not an open confrontation, otherwise the harbingers of war will continue.”
Eritrea gained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993, and the two countries fought a bloody border war between 1998 and 2000. Relations improved with Abiy Ahmed's rise to power in 2018, and Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia during the civil war it fought between 2020 and 2022 against the Tigray People's Liberation Front. But relations deteriorated after the war, and witnessed an escalation last September after Ethiopian accusations against Eritrea of supporting Tigray rebels and incursion dozens of kilometers into the border.
Three residents of the city of Adigrat, near the border with Eritrea, Ethiopia's neighbor in the Horn of Africa, said that Ethiopian government forces and allied militias entered the city today, Saturday, days after Eritrean forces were pushed to retreat from the strategic city, according to what Reuters reported.
The two countries exchanged accusations after reports of an incursion by Eritrean forces - which Eritrea denied and Reuters could not independently verify - raised fears of an all-out war in the region, which has witnessed previous conflicts between the two countries. The risks have increased this time due to the ongoing conflicts in the Horn of Africa and tension in the Red Sea.
On Saturday, Eritrea called on the UN Security Council to condemn the “declaration of war” against it by Ethiopia, warning that this would lead to destabilization of the region.
On Friday, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of committing “blatant aggression,” and said it was forced to “legitimate self-defense,” according to a letter sent by the authorities to the Security Council, according to a letter seen by Agence France-Presse.
In its letter to the Security Council, Asmara urged “to take appropriate deterrent measures” against Addis Ababa.
Reuters quoted three Adigrat residents as saying that they saw the Ethiopian army and an allied militia in the city this morning.
One of them said he saw soldiers on patrol alongside military vehicles.
Reuters was unable to confirm whether the army controls Adigrat, which is located 30 kilometers from the border with Eritrea. The Ethiopian army did not respond to a request for comment, and city officials could not be contacted today.
Ethiopia said in a letter to members of the United Nations Security Council this week that Eritrean forces have penetrated up to 60 kilometers into Tigray in the past few days, warning that the presence of foreign forces leaves it no choice but to defend itself.
Eritrea said that reports of an Eritrean incursion are incorrect and fall within the framework of an Ethiopian plan to justify waging war against it.
There were reports of explosions near Adigrat on Wednesday and Thursday, while the US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) reported that Ethiopia used drones in raids on Eritrean forces who then withdrew from positions near the city.
A resident of Adigrat told Reuters that he heard repeated explosions during Friday night and into the morning, coming from an area a few kilometers outside the town.
A spokesman for Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel, did not respond to a request for comment.
The Eritrean Minister of Information said, on Friday, that Asmara has been showing restraint since Ethiopia announced in 2023 that it would seek to obtain a sovereign access to the sea, which is considered a declaration of war.
Ethiopia became a landlocked country when Eritrea gained its independence in 1993. Addis Ababa considers obtaining a sea port an existential issue, but stressed that this will be achieved through peace and dialogue.
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of supporting a rebel coalition that has been fighting government forces since September 23 in the northern regions of Tigray, Amhara and Afar. Eritrea denies this.
After a war that lasted for years, Eritrea and Ethiopia concluded a peace agreement in 2018 that awarded Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize. Eritrea fought in support of the Ethiopian federal government during the civil war in Tigray between 2020 and 2022, but relations soured again towards the end of that conflict.
The fighting that broke out last month represents the largest escalation of violence since the Tigray war, in which hundreds of thousands were killed.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Military tension continues in the border areas between Ethiopia and Eritrea
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