G20 trade ministers begin their talks on Wednesday in the United States, amid a tense atmosphere due to the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, at a time when Washington is pressuring its partners regarding forced labor and excess production capacity.
A meeting of officials from the G20 countries, which includes major global economies, including China, India, Russia, Japan, Germany and France, will be held in the city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in the American Midwest, according to Agence France-Presse.
But analysts expect the two-day talks to face a dead end, in light of the impact of the tariffs imposed by Trump on trade relations, while China rejects concerns related to its exports, which critics see as being driven by a surplus in industrial production capacity.
On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer defended Washington’s approach during a roundtable in Milwaukee, stressing that the US administration “is not anti-trade.”
He added that countries face similar challenges linked to global surplus production capacity and “policies not based on market mechanisms.”
Major US trading partners, such as Canada and the European Union, are also expected to push this week towards strengthening trade relations outside the US market.
Josh Lipsky, of the Atlantic Council Research Foundation, told the agency: “Do not expect breakthroughs in Milwaukee,” indicating Trump’s preference for bilateral negotiations.
Wendy Cutler, a former US trade official who currently works at the Asia Community Policy Institute, added that although the G20 partners are keen to find ways to cooperate with the world's largest economy, they "will also face pressure to express their concerns about tariffs."
The United States holds the rotating presidency of the G20, which includes 19 countries, along with the European Union and the African Union.
Accusations of unfair targeting
Since last year, Trump has imposed a wide series of tariffs on US trading partners, in addition to targeting specific sectors, such as steel and automobiles.
Although the Supreme Court in February invalidated Washington's tariffs on a country-by-country basis, the United States has since accused 60 economies of not taking adequate measures to combat forced labor, and imposed new tariffs on them.
The list includes China, India and the European Union.
The sectoral customs duties imposed by the US President are also still in effect, increasing pressure on trade relations.
Washington is also investigating 16 trading partners over excess industrial production capacity, a complaint often leveled at China. Critics believe that surplus production floods markets and unfairly depresses prices.
But the ongoing US investigations extend beyond the world's second-largest economy, as it threatens to impose more customs duties on the European Union and other countries in the G20, such as Japan and South Korea.
Wendy Cutler expects that “some countries will speak very frankly” about the investigations, because they feel that they are “unfairly targeted.”
She said that China “will continue to deny the issue of exporting surplus production,” in an attempt to convince other countries that it contributes to providing high-quality, low-priced goods.
Wendy Cutler added that “convincing others of this will be difficult,” in light of what other countries see as repercussions on employment and commercial activities as a result of the influx of Chinese imports.
On the other hand, Lipsky said that the members of the group “are wondering about the amount of concessions they should make to the Trump administration, given the possibility of a change in US trade policy after 2028,” referring to the upcoming US presidential elections.
Diversify business partnerships
In light of the trade wars that Trump is waging, attention is turning to the efforts of the G20 members to strengthen their trade relations outside the United States, or to conclude agreements with the American administration.
Canada and the European Union are expected to seek to boost trade and investments with other partners, at a time when disagreements are escalating between Ottawa and Washington.
Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu stressed his country's support for "open, predictable and rules-based trade."
Sidhu intends to hold talks with partners, with the aim of “strengthening a multilateral trading system,” at a time when the Canadian authorities are working to diversify their economy, which they see as highly dependent on the United States, in light of Washington’s increasing trend toward trade protectionist policies.
In contrast, other countries, such as India, may conclude a long-awaited trade agreement with the United States. Observers are also watching for signs of possible escalation of pressure on Iran.
Outside the G20, workers and activists are protesting what they see as the Trump administration's failure to fulfill its promises to improve the conditions of workers, farmers, and small businesses.
John Drew, who heads the political arm of the United Auto Workers union in Wisconsin, said he regrets the loss of manufacturing jobs in the state.
Although the union does not rule out the use of specific tariffs to protect jobs, Drew said that “the widespread use of tariffs” by Trump “did nothing to restore jobs or rebuild the manufacturing sector.”
The Russian government has extended a ban on diesel exports by fuel producers until the end of next October, in a move aimed at supporting domestic supplies, at a time when the Russian fuel market is facing increasing pressure due to damage to refineries and Ukrainian attacks on energy facilities, according to what was reported by Reuters.
The ban was scheduled to end on September 30, before the government decided to extend it for an additional month.
Moscow had imposed restrictions on exports of gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel, as part of measures to address fuel shortages in the local market.
The move comes at a time when Russian refining capacity is under pressure due to drone attacks that targeted a number of refineries, which led to a decline in the production of some petroleum products and an increased need to protect local supplies.
Russia is one of the largest exporters of diesel in the global market, and therefore continued restrictions on its exports could increase pressure on the international diesel market, which is already suffering from a scarcity of supplies as a result of production and refining disruptions in several regions.
The Russian decision coincided with widespread disruption in the global diesel market due to the war in the Middle East and attacks on Russian refining facilities.
Reuters had indicated that the United States, which increased its diesel exports by more than 20 percent from last year’s levels, to cover the global supply shortage, is, in turn, considering imposing restrictions on fuel exports. Trying to lower local prices.
This comes as the price of US diesel exceeded $6.53 per gallon last week, while supply disruptions and a decline in global inventories pushed diesel fuel prices to high levels in a number of markets.
