Qiang Pi will be big and strong! Experts reveal two model predictions: It may be very close to Taiwan

Typhoon Qiangbi formed at 2 pm yesterday. Meteorological experts pointed out that environmental conditions are favorable for the development of Qiangpi. It is expected that it will become a "large and powerful typhoon" with a Category 7 storm radius of 250 to 280 kilometers in the future. At present, the model paths of various countries are different. Among them, the United States and AI models are expected to be very close to Taiwan, and the probability of impact on Taiwan is greatly increased.

Lin De'en, a doctor of atmospheric sciences at National Taiwan University, posted on Facebook "Teacher Lin Weather Station" and pointed out, "Qiangpi is growing up and strong!" Lin De'en explained that tropical depression TD33, which was originally located on the sea east of Guam, intensified during the day yesterday and became the 29th typhoon Qiangpi this year. Because it is about to enter a sea area suitable for its continued development and intensification; it contains favorable conditions such as low-to-moderate vertical wind shear sea areas (5 to 15 knots), warm sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 degrees Celsius), ocean heat content (OHC) close to 100 kJ/cm², and good equatorward and eastward upper-level outflows.

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Lin Deen mentioned that according to the latest meteorological data assessment from the Central Meteorological Administration this morning, the wind radius of Typhoon Qiangbi will reach 250 to 280 kilometers for Category 7 storms, and the radius of Category 10 storms will also be 80 to 100 kilometers. The intensity will develop between moderate typhoons and severe typhoons; it will be a big and strong typhoon.

Lin Deen said that the future movement path of Typhoon Qiangbi will be determined by the guidance of the environmental flow field, that is, the degree of westward extension or eastward retreat of the Pacific high pressure; the views of numerical models in various countries are still quite different. Among them, the European traditional physical model ECMWF believes that Typhoon Qianbi is expected to pass near Guam from the weekend to next Monday (10/17 to 10/19), and then move towards the sea southeast of Ryukyu, with an increasing northward component, and gradually begin to turn parabolically. Next Tuesday to Thursday (10/20 to 10/22) it may pass south of Ryukyu and move northward, and may get close to the eastern coast of Honshu, Japan; it will have no direct impact on the weather in Taiwan.

As for the US NCEP numerical model and AI numerical model, they all believe that the future movement path of Typhoon Qiangbi will be very close to Taiwan, and the impact on Taiwan will increase accordingly. However, since it is still a long time, the environment is still being adjusted and there is great uncertainty, so we should continue to track and monitor its future development trends.