
AI-generated summary
After a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon entered war after Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli strikes on Iran. The pace of violence decreased after a US-Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement to disarm Hezbollah and a gradual Israeli withdrawal. In Palestine, no legislative or presidential elections have been held since 2005-2006, and Hamas took control of Gaza after that.
The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that an Israeli attack took place on Friday in the northeast of the country, near the Syrian border, wounding six people, specifically in an area that has remained largely untouched by similar incidents since the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
The ministry said, “The Israeli attack in the vicinity of the town of Hosh al-Sayyid Ali in the Hermel district resulted in 6 wounded, including 5 of Syrian nationality, including two women, in addition to a Lebanese wounded,” according to what was reported by Agence France-Presse.
The official National News Agency reported that “an enemy military drone targeted a car in Hosh al-Sayyid Ali.”
Lebanon entered the war on March 2 after Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel, which it said were in response to the killing of Iranian guide Ali Khamenei in the first American and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.
Israel responded with an intense campaign of raids and a ground incursion by its forces, which occupied dozens of towns and villages in southern Lebanon, and with large-scale bombing operations.
The pace of violence declined after the United States and Iran concluded a memorandum of understanding in June, and the Lebanese and Israeli governments signed, under American sponsorship, a framework agreement that stipulated the disarmament of Hezbollah, the gradual withdrawal of the Hebrew state from the lands it occupies in southern Lebanon, and the deployment of the Lebanese army, starting from “experimental” areas.
On Thursday, the Israeli army announced that an officer was killed and three soldiers were slightly injured in southern Lebanon.
The Palestinians are awaiting an official announcement from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to postpone the elections that were scheduled for next November 28, after the Fatah movement agreed with the Palestinian factions to do so, in a step that was not surprising.
An informed Palestinian source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the postponement of the elections was expected from the first moment the Palestinian President issued the decree. He added: “The decree came in response to external requests and pressures for the renewal of legitimacy and reform. No one here was ready for that... Neither Fatah nor Hamas nor the factions were ready for the elections. Despite everyone announcing that they were holding these elections, everyone pushed for their postponement... Until now, no major faction has formed its list or submitted it to the Elections Commission.”
According to the source, the Executive Committee of the PLO, which meets on Saturday, is supposed to submit a recommendation to President Abbas to postpone the elections in order to give the national dialogue a chance, and because the political and security conditions are complex and not prepared at this time.
It is not clear whether Abbas will set a new date, or announce that it will take place during the last quarter of next year, as many sources estimate.
Palestinian Vice President Hussein Al-Sheikh informed France that the elections had already been postponed for several months, due to the deteriorating conditions in the Palestinian territories, according to a letter seen by Reuters.
A letter from the Sheikh to the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, yesterday (Thursday), stated that the evaluation concluded that the political, security and economic conditions that were expected to be available to hold the legislative elections on the scheduled date had not been achieved.
The letter added that holding elections under the current circumstances faces fundamental obstacles that affect the comprehensiveness of the electoral process, the freedom to participate in it, and its integrity.
Palestinian legislative or presidential elections have not been held since 2005 and 2006, when the last elections of this kind were held, before Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip and expelled forces loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas from it.
Abbas had announced that the legislative elections would be held next November, as part of a series of huge reforms that he launched in the Palestinian Authority after October 7, 2023, which included restructuring the Central Elections Committee, creating the position of Vice Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Liberation Organization and Vice President of the State of Palestine, forming a committee to draft a temporary constitution for the transitional phase from the “authority” to the “state,” appointing new heads for almost all the leaders of the security services, and referring cientos of officers with the rank of brigadier general to retirement by decree. Presidential elections, local elections in the West Bank and Gaza, and then elections for the leadership of the Fatah movement.
But despite all these reforms, the Palestinians have doubts about holding presidential and legislative elections.
The Sheikh's message came to remove doubt with certainty, actually confirming the postponement of the elections.
The letter said that Palestinian officials expected conditions to improve through the implementation of US President Donald Trump's peace initiative and the implementation of a UN Security Council resolution, including the deployment of international forces and Palestinian police in the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of the Hamas movement, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
She added that the Palestinian side was also expecting American action to prevent further annexation of Palestinian lands in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, limit settler violence, and release Palestinian funds held by Israel, amounting to about 7 billion dollars.
The letter stated: “But these steps, understandings and promises were not fulfilled, and the situation deteriorated throughout the Palestinian territories,” referring to security problems in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Based on this assessment, Palestinian officials recommended to President Abbas to adjust the date of the elections and postpone them for several months, while continuing the dialogue with the aim of creating the necessary internal conditions for their holding, according to the letter.
“Fatah” and factional reasons
In addition to the reasons given by the Sheikh, other sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the lack of agreement within Fatah was a major reason for moving towards postponing the elections.
The sources added that there was no clear agreement with senior leader Marwan Barghouti, who launched an initiative before the elections in order to “unite the Fatah movement with all its blocs and movements,” and there were fears that he might push towards forming a special list.
Barghouti intends to run for the presidency and not for the legislative seat, but his support for a list other than the official “Fatah” list would confuse the cards.
Fatah was also facing a challenge related to the Reform Movement led by the movement’s former official, Muhammad Dahlan, who had agreed with Hamas to form a single list to run in the elections that included other factions. It was not clear whether he could have joined Barghouti, later, if he had formed his own list.
In addition, there were angry officials in Fatah who actually began forming special lists.
Fatah wants to go with one list, and this requires more time and internal consultations.
The attempt to reconcile with the Dahlan movement earlier also failed, despite regional attempts to solve the problem of this movement by returning to Fatah or forming a new political party in the Palestinian arena.
In addition to Fatah, Hamas had not decided its decision completely, and it needed a broad and strong alliance after it pledged not to run in the elections on its own behalf or through its well-known leaders and members.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad also supported postponing the elections. Above all, the Popular Front demanded that it be postponed and that the national dialogue be given a chance.
The source said: “Everyone was pushing for postponement. “The issue is not related to the authority and Fatah only.”
The Palestinians do not have the right to decide on the elections alone, but Israel has the final say in this matter.
The Israeli government refused to allow the Palestinian Central Elections Commission to enter the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem to follow up on preparations for the elections.
An official Palestinian source told the official Wafa news agency on Tuesday that the Israeli government refused to allow the committee to enter the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, in a move that created a direct obstacle to holding elections that include the entire Palestinian territories.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam affirmed: “We are working on interconnected paths” represented by “restoring the state’s decision and authority over its entire territory, and launching the necessary reforms for economic advancement and reconstruction,” noting that “success in one of them does not replace progress in the other paths.”
Salam said during the opening of the Beirut International Arab Book Fair: “The Lebanese have paid heavy prices for successive wars and crises. They lost lives, livelihoods, homes, and savings, and many of our youth lost confidence in their ability to build their future in their homeland.”
Pointing to the interconnected paths, he stressed that “there is no economy capable of revival without reform, trust, and accountability, and there is no sustainable reconstruction without security and stability, and there is no stable stability without a state that alone owns the decision on war and peace, and there is no capable state without effective institutions.”
He continued: “In this way, the future of the Lebanese does not remain a hostage to decisions they do not make through their constitutional institutions, or conflicts they do not want, or wars they do not choose, but for which they pay again and again,” noting that “restoring state sovereignty requires ending the Israeli occupation of our lands, stopping the attacks, returning the displaced to their homes a safe and dignified return, and rebuilding their villages and cities.”
Salam said: “The state we want will not have complete sovereignty over its land if it remains weak in the face of factional and private interests, and it will not regain people’s trust if it is not based on justice, equality, and the rule of law. This is the task for which we are working, realizing that the path is not easy, and that the challenges are great, and what has accumulated over decades cannot be addressed overnight,” stressing that “the difficulty of the task does not justify postponing it, and the size of the challenges does not exempt us from bearing responsibility.”
A comprehensive renaissance for Lebanon
Salam believed that “talking about the cultural renaissance necessarily leads us to talking about the comprehensive renaissance that Lebanon needs,” pointing out that “our country does not only need to rebuild what was destroyed; But to rethink a lot of what led him to where he is.” He said: “It is not enough to rebuild some state institutions. Rather, we must restore consideration to the concept of the state itself, and to its place in the conscience of the Lebanese, in their relationship with each other, and in their view of their rights and duties.”
He stressed that “the renaissance that Lebanon needs is not just an economic, administrative or urban project. “It is also a renaissance in political thought, in national culture, and in the concept of public responsibility.”
Salam said: “We need a political culture that does not reduce politics to the struggle for power, but rather sees it as a responsibility for the public good, and a culture of citizenship that does not deny the diversity of the Lebanese people, but rather makes the state a comprehensive framework for this diversity. We need a cultural and media space that allows free debate, encourages questioning and accountability, and confronts hate speech and misinformation, without fearing criticism or seeking to silence dissenting voices.”
Building the future
He stressed that “intellectual renaissance is not a luxury that can be postponed until after political and economic reform.” “It is one of the conditions for the success and sustainability of this reform.”
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Palestinian elections will be postponed for several additional months due to failure to meet political and security conditions
Very likely · Within months
The Israeli army will regain its activity in southern Lebanon if attacks on civilians continue to escalate
Likely · Within weeks
International pressure on Israel will increase to facilitate the holding of Palestinian elections in Gaza and Jerusalem
Possible · Within months

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