Points if the stock is correct... Kakao Pay's 'Today's Premonition' points out Polymarket similarities
Concerns raised about informational vs. speculative information without user funds invested in future prediction services such as stock price fluctuations
Quick Look
- Kakao Pay operates a 'Today's Premonition' service that provides points for guessing the outcome of future events, such as stock price fluctuations, and is sparking controversy over its speculative nature, with criticism that it is similar to the U.S.
- Kakao Pay countered that it was an information service that did not involve user funds.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
In August of this year, Kakao Pay launched the ‘Today’s Premonition’ service, which gives points for guessing the outcome of future events such as stock price fluctuations.
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Han Sang-yong and Park Soo-hyun = Kakao Pay is causing controversy by operating 'Today's Premonition', which gives Kakao Pay points if you guess the outcome of future events such as stock price fluctuations.
Some in the financial and IT industries point out that the idea is similar to the US prediction market platform ‘PolyMarket’.
Accordingly, Kakao Pay's position is that it is an information service that does not involve user funds, and that it is "significantly different from Polymarket."
If you look at the Kakao Pay app on the 11th, users can bet 'gam', a participation point, on one of the two answers presented in the prediction question.
If you guess the result correctly, you receive Kakao Pay points.
'Will NVIDIA stock fall?' displayed in 'Today's Premonition' accessed this morning. About 16,600 people participated in the questionnaire.
The proportion of each answer type in the app was ‘fail’ at 77% and ‘no’ at 23%, and the total reward allocated to this question was 100,000 points.
The forecast materials for this service, which was launched in August of this year, vary from stock prices to virtual asset prices and the number of event participants.
In September, a question asking whether the price of Bitcoin would exceed 100 million won, and a question asking whether the number of participants in the donation marathon will exceed 300,000 this month were shared through user posts.
Some in the industry point out that the basic concept of 'Today's Premonition' is similar to the American 'Poly Market' in that it predicts the fluctuations in stock prices or the results of future events.
In Polymarket, users can buy and sell contracts linked to event results.
In 'Today's Premonition', users bet 'gam', a participation point, on the answer and receive Kakao Pay points if the result is correct.
In Kakao Pay’s ‘Today’s Premonition’, users bet ‘Gummies’ on their answers and receive points based on the results.
In relation to this, a Kakao Pay official said, "It was designed to create an environment in which users can take interest in common sense in various fields and think for themselves through 'Gam', a free participation ticket," and added, "'Gam' and rewards cannot be purchased, transferred, or traded with cash or points, and there is no loss even if the answer is wrong, so it is different from a market that predicts the future by betting money."
This official also emphasized, “It is an informational service that provides common sense content related to predictive questions in order to systematically convey common sense in various fields, including finance,” and “It is not a service that collects money from users.”
Meanwhile, in Korea, the Communications Standards Subcommittee of the Broadcasting Media and Communications Standards Commission approved Polymarket's speculative nature in August of this year and decided to block access to it.
Open Questions
- Will financial authorities take separate regulations or measures for this service?
- How will user participation rate affect future service maintenance?
