
AI-generated summary
The civil war in Yemen has continued since the Houthi armed forces seized the capital Sanaa in 2014, and a multinational coalition led by Saudi Arabia has intervened since 2015. The Red Sea is an important global shipping channel, accounting for approximately 10% of world trade. Iran has long been accused of supporting the Houthis but denies direct military intervention.
China News Service, October 5th. A few days ago, affected by the spillover from the US-Israel-Iraq conflict, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen and Saudi Arabia continued to attack each other, making the regional situation once again turbulent.
On the 4th local time, the Yemeni government announced the launch of military operations to regain areas recently controlled by the Houthi armed forces. At the same time, Iran released a signal of "parallel military and diplomacy", and the safety of Red Sea shipping has once again attracted attention. Is the regional situation entering a new escalation cycle?
On March 25, 2022 local time, an oil facility in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia was attacked by Yemeni Houthi armed forces. The picture shows a fire breaking out at the scene.
War in Yemen escalates
The government announced the launch of military operations
According to reports from Agence France-Presse and other foreign media, Yemen's Houthi armed military spokesman Yahya Saraya issued a statement on the 4th saying that the organization launched missile and drone attacks on two Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais.
The Houthis said earlier that Saudi Arabia launched a series of air strikes in Yemen's Jawf Province that day.
According to reports from Reuters and Al Jazeera, on the same day, Rashad Mohammed Alimi, Chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, delivered a televised speech on Yemeni National Television in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, saying that after weeks of military mobilization, the Yemeni government has officially launched a large-scale military operation to regain areas recently controlled by the Houthi armed forces.
According to reports, Rashad Muhammad Alimi has ordered the armed forces, security services and allied military forces to start executing the combat plan.
The multinational coalition command led by Saudi Arabia also issued a statement that day, saying that the coalition will continue to provide comprehensive combat support to the Yemeni government and its armed forces to "restore the country."
Arab News reported that multinational coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki accused the Houthis of deliberately and systematically attacking civilians and civilian facilities in Riyadh and other cities in Saudi Arabia. They also attempted to attack the cities of Mecca and Medina, and attempted to attack Saudi ships in the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Maliki said that the coalition will continue to take necessary measures to curb the hostile actions of the Houthi armed forces and safeguard Saudi Arabia's security and sovereignty; Saudi Arabia will take relevant combat measures to respond to attacks by the Houthi armed forces and eliminate their threats to the freedom of navigation in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
He also said that such threats not only endanger regional and international security, but also threaten international trade, the global economy and the interests of all countries.
Iran sends mixed signals?
The situation in Yemen may add variables
As the war in Yemen escalates, Iran also sends a signal of "parallel diplomacy and defense."
According to Türkiye's Anadolu Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagaei said on the 4th that the solution to the Yemen problem is not to intensify the economic blockade or bombing.
Iran believes that the Houthis and Saudi Arabia should engage in dialogue based on the previously agreed peace road map, and Iran is "willing to provide all help to promote this process."
But at the military level, Iran also sent a tougher signal.
According to Iranian news on the 4th, Iranian military spokesman Akraminiya said in an interview that the Iranian military has decided to improve the range of its missiles. Akraminiya said the decision was made because Iran had learned "lessons" from its wars with the United States and Israel.
Reuters reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said in a meeting with foreign envoys in Iran that day that Iran takes diplomatic channels and national defense seriously. If the enemy once again embarks on the path of military confrontation, Iran will fight back with a stronger attitude; if the enemy seeks diplomatic channels, Iran is always ready to seek a fair solution to the problem through diplomatic means to end the war.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagaei also emphasized that although Iran believes that the chances are slim, it has never given up using diplomatic means to prevent the escalation of tensions and achieve peace.
However, he also stated that the Iranian armed forces are always vigilant and ready to repel any invasion by foreign forces.
At the same time, shipping safety in the Red Sea has once again attracted attention.
According to reports from the Associated Press and Turkey's Anadolu Agency, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office (UKMTO) issued a report on the 4th saying that an oil tanker was sailing in the waters about 60 nautical miles south of the Red Sea port city of Muha in Taiz Province in southwestern Yemen when multiple explosions were discovered near the ship.
UKMTO stated that the crew is currently safe and no environmental impact has been reported. Relevant departments are investigating the incident. The agency also reminded passing ships to sail with caution and report any suspicious activity.
The day before, Reuters quoted a statement from the Houthi armed forces saying that they used ballistic missiles and drones to attack an oil facility in the Saudi capital Riyadh in response to recent attacks by Saudi Arabia.
According to foreign media sources such as Al Jazeera and Arab News, the Saudi-led multinational coalition claimed that the Houthi armed forces’ above-mentioned statement was “misleading” and was intended to divert attention from the outside world’s losses.
Analysts believe that as the Yemeni government launches military operations, the Houthi armed forces and Saudi Arabia continue to clash, and Iran releases military and diplomatic signals at the same time, the war in Yemen is further affected by the broader security situation in the region.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Yemeni government's military operations will continue to advance in the coming weeks to compete for control of Jawf Province and other places
Likely · Within weeks
Iran will complete part of the missile range improvement work in the next 1-2 months
Possible · Within months
Red Sea shipping safety concerns will lead to higher insurance costs and route changes
Likely · Within weeks

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