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Back今年9月以前民調全作廢!戴立安爆「這縣市」已塵埃落定
今年9月以前民調全作廢!戴立安爆「這縣市」已塵埃落定
Politics
自由时报17 minutes agoPolitics1 min readChinaView translation

今年9月以前民調全作廢!戴立安爆「這縣市」已塵埃落定

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信民協會理事長黃清龍與民調專家戴立安受訪時指出,受「洋流」影響,今年9月以前的民調已全都作廢。戴立安並透露,新竹縣雖然藍加白大於綠,但國民黨的票早就轉移給其他候選人,當地選情已塵埃落定。

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Why It Matters

信民協會理事長黃清龍與民調專家戴立安接受節目專訪,分析選舉情勢與民調變化。

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民調專家戴立安。(資料照)

信民協會理事長黃清龍與民調專家戴立安,昨日登上節目「下班瀚你聊」接受主持人黃暐瀚專訪。戴立安提到「洋流」對這次選舉造成的巨大影響,「今年9月以前的民調大概全都作廢了」。他還提到,雖然新竹縣確實是「藍加白大於綠」,但現在結果已經塵埃落定,「很多國民黨的票早就轉移給其他候選人了」。

戴立安昨日表示,今年其實大家大概都一樣,因為洋流的關係,今年9月以前的民調大概都作廢了,前面做得再大,都會變得非常多,「整個都改寫了」。他還透露,之前做了幾千份的調查,現在狀況完全都不一樣了,從市議員的部分也可以看的出來整個都「變盤」了。

戴立安提到,新竹縣的民調自己做了不只一次,藍加白大於綠的政黨傾向還是很明顯,但政黨立場並不代表結果。戴立安說,這不代表國民黨候選人就在領先的局面,因為很多國民黨的票早就轉移給其他候選人了,而且新竹縣其實早就塵埃落定。

Open Questions

  • 所謂「洋流」具體指哪些選舉大環境因素?
  • 新竹縣票源轉移後的實際支持分佈為何?

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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