The climate summit in Türkiye begins amid the repercussions of wars, artificial intelligence, and fears that global efforts will falter

Representatives from about 200 countries are meeting on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey on Monday for two weeks to hold climate talks, at a time when efforts to combat global warming face increasing challenges due to energy security concerns resulting from wars, and the growing demand for electricity due to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence technologies, in addition to the continued failure of the United States to cooperate in achieving climate goals.

The American war on Iran caused countries to race to obtain oil shipments and operate coal plants, while the rapid spread of artificial intelligence led to an increase in demand for energy. The United States, historically the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, is also avoiding international cooperation on the climate file for the second year in a row.

Observers say that these factors together have created a difficult environment that will complicate the efforts of Türkiye, the host country of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), to reach a strong and binding agreement. “It's hard to be optimistic,” said John Holdren, a professor of environmental policy at Harvard University.

The Turkish presidency of the conference this year is focusing on a goal of supplying more than a third of the global economy with electricity by 2035, up from about a fifth currently. Türkiye asks countries to sign a pledge supporting this goal.

In theory, this target could contribute to reducing greenhouse emissions by accelerating the global shift away from fossil fuel-powered vehicles, ovens, boilers, cookstoves and other sources of emissions.

But climate advocates have criticized the pledge because it does not require additional electricity to come from low-carbon sources, sparking early debate over whether expanding electricity supply alone represents real climate progress.

A coalition of countries, including the South Pacific island states threatened by rising sea levels, is seeking to develop a clearer global road map to gradually abandon fossil fuels, a file that has remained one of the most controversial issues at climate conferences.

On the other hand, many oil and gas producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, say that fossil fuels can remain an important part of the global energy mix even with the expansion of clean energy, provided that emissions reduction or capture technologies are used. At the same time, international pressure is growing to address climate change faster.

A report issued by the United Nations Environment Program in October stated that the world is on a path to exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which is the threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015.

The year 2026 also witnessed a series of severe heat waves across Western Europe, in addition to the collapse of a glacier in Nepal, causing a catastrophic flood that killed more than 1,450 people, while thousands more are still missing.

“This year has proven to be one of the years with the highest death tolls as a result of climate-related disasters,” said Manjeet Dahl, LDC Group Advisor and South Asia Director at Climate Analytics.

War, technology and climate

The war on Iran highlighted the extent of the world's dependence on fossil fuels, as did the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions on Moscow's energy exports. Some believe that the disruptions caused by wars also demonstrated the advantages of switching to renewable energy sources.

The war on Iran, which has entered its ninth month, has severely affected oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rise in global fuel prices and prompting governments to search for alternative sources and supplies.

The administration of US President Donald Trump has encouraged policies aimed at increasing oil, gas and coal production to confront the unrest in the Middle East. Meanwhile, South Korea, India, Thailand and other Asian countries have increased their reliance on coal or taken steps to boost electricity generation from this source.

Holdren said: 'Many may have previously felt embarrassed to defend the continued use of very large fossil fuels, but they now feel more confident in making this argument.'

In contrast, the use of renewable energy has continued to rise, driven by growing exports of low-cost clean technology from China, which climate action advocates see as a positive development.

Brazilian diplomat Andre Correa do Lago, who chaired last year's climate conference, said: 'The war has reinforced the need to accelerate the transition in the energy sector. The United States represents somewhat of an exceptional case in this regard.

Artificial intelligence has also added a new level of complexity to the climate file. The rapid spread of this technology increases the global demand for electricity significantly, which contributes to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. But the benefits of AI are attractive enough that even climate and environmental organizations are keen to take advantage of them.

While hosting the conference, Türkiye will invite governments, companies and various institutions to sign a pledge setting principles to ensure the development and use of artificial intelligence in a sustainable manner.

Business sector representatives said that they want, above all, clarity in the outcomes of the COP31 conference.

ICC Secretary General John Denton said: 'Implementation cannot remain just a slogan or be left to voluntary initiatives. "COP31 must send clear political signals that give companies the confidence to invest in expanding electrification, accelerating the energy transition, and turning climate adaptation needs into bankable projects."