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Quick Look
- The United States, Britain, and their partners warned Iran against carrying out hostile actions on its soil after the British Fairford Air Base incident, which London suggested was carried out under the direction of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, while Britain imposed sanctions on Iranian citizens and accused Iran of being involved in schemes inside Britain.
- In a separate context, the European Union approved a new sanctions package on Russia targeting 1,600 entities and individuals linked to the war on Ukraine, amid tensions between Washington and Europe over Ukraine’s policies and the escalation of protests.
- Students in France.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
These developments come in the context of ongoing tensions between the West and Iran for years, in addition to the Russian war on Ukraine, which has entered its third year, and the escalation of student protests in France against education policies, amid disagreements between Washington and its European allies about the best way to confront Russia and Iran.
The United States and its partners, including Britain, Australia, Canada, France and Germany, warned Iran, on Monday, against undertaking hostile actions on its soil, following an incident that raised great concern at the British “Fairford” air base, and London suggested that it took place under the guidance of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
A joint statement published by the US State Department and signed by 29 parties said: “Any attempt by Iran to threaten, silence, intimidate, harass, harm, or coerce people on our soil, whether through proxies or by any other means, is unacceptable.”
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on Monday that there was a “high possibility” that the suspected plot targeting Fairford Air Base had been coordinated in Iran, and that the Revolutionary Guards had likely directed it, according to what was reported by Reuters news agency.
He added before Parliament: “We will not tolerate these threats on our lands.” “We will firmly confront Iran’s use of criminal networks, and we will use our full powers to target these networks and their sources of financing. We will also impose more sanctions to limit the ability of Iran and the Revolutionary Guard to harm us.”
On Monday evening, the British Foreign Office issued a joint statement signed by more than 25 countries, including the United States, supporting Britain’s accusation that Iran was involved in the Fairford Air Base incident.
In a related context, Britain announced, on Monday, the imposition of sanctions on two Iranian citizens, and the government said that one of them was involved in Iranian activities aimed at threatening to launch attacks in Britain or a third country or planning or carrying out such attacks.
The Fairford base incident dates back to September 27, when the British police arrested five British men near this air base, which was used by American bombers in the war to launch strikes on Iran, on suspicion of their involvement in a plan targeting the base. The authorities later arrested two other people, one of whom holds dual British and Iranian citizenship, before releasing the seven detainees on bail, while investigations continued.
US President Donald Trump said last week that a threat linked to Iran prompted Washington to withdraw US B-1 bombers from the Fairford base. American officials revealed to Reuters the existence of a suspected plan involving Iran to launch a drone attack.
Iran had previously rejected any suggestion of its involvement in the Fairford incident, saying that the matter was nothing more than “unfounded and malicious speculation.”
The official Iranian IRNA news agency reported on Monday that the Iranian ambassador to Britain, Seyyed Ali Mousavi, denied any role for Tehran in what was suspected of a plan to target the Fairford base of the British Royal Air Force, and said that Iran is ready To cooperate with the British authorities in investigating the case.
The British authorities accused Iran of involvement in many schemes inside Britain.
In July, London used new powers to stop the use of agents sponsored by other countries with the aim of prohibiting any support for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and a group linked to it accused of being behind attacks that targeted sites in the country linked to Jews, Israelis, and Persian-speaking media.
The European response to the decision of US President Donald Trump to lift some of the sanctions imposed on sales of Russian petroleum derivatives, through the agreement he concluded with his counterpart Vladimir Putin, was not long in consultation with the leaders of the Old Continent.
After the unanimous European comments that Trump’s decision does not come at the right time, and that it provides an “oxygen balloon” for the Russian economy and Putin’s military efforts, European Union foreign ministers, on the occasion of their meeting in Luxembourg, on Monday, hastened the approval of a new basket of sanctions on Russia, the largest since the start of the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The new sanctions, according to Kaya Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy official, target 1,600 entities and individuals linked to the war. Russian on Ukraine. In a tweet on Monday on the X platform, the European official described the decision as “the largest expansion of the list of sanctions we have imposed since the beginning of the war,” adding that Europe “shows once again that it stands united” alongside Kiev.
The details revealed by Callas, as well as French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, show that those targeted by the new obstacles are linked to the Russian military industries sector and consist of 743 individuals and 826 entities. According to Callas, “More than half of those targeted (by sanctions) are linked to the production of ballistic missiles, and we are working to make the production of Russian missiles used to kill Ukrainians more difficult, slow, and expensive.” With the new basket, the number of those subject to the European sanctions that began to be imposed immediately after the start of the Russian war is 4,600 entities and individuals.
Conference on “Ghost Fleet”
As for Minister Barrow, he believed, on Monday, that the new step would “contribute to increasing the burdens and costs that Putin pays as a price for this colonial and imperialist war, which must inevitably stop,” calling for the need to continue imposing sanctions on Russia. In this context, Barrow referred to the work that the Union will undertake “in the coming weeks” to impose the twenty-second package of sanctions on Russia. In parallel, and within the framework of efforts aimed at exacerbating the economic pressures on Russia and depriving it of oil sales and its resort to the so-called “ghost fleet,” Paris will host, this fall, an international conference dedicated to measures and mechanisms that allow putting an end to Moscow’s circumvention of oil sanctions through the aforementioned “fleet.”
Day after day, it becomes clear that Washington and European capitals are moving in different contexts. The European side, which is afraid of Russian cyberattacks and what it calls “hybrid warfare” and future Russian military plans, some of which could target European countries, sees no way to confront them except by imposing more multi-form pressures. At the same time, he views with “sadness and grief,” as political sources in Paris say, Trump’s proposals and also his call for President Zelensky to step down from his position, and the arrival of a new president in Ukraine capable of reaching a peace agreement with Moscow. In this context, the German Chancellor’s statement on Monday must be put in place, in which he stated that Moscow “will not negotiate seriously except under pressure.” That is why we are adhering to our sanctions imposed on them.” According to Friedrich Merz, “We must indeed tighten these sanctions even further in the wake of Russia’s brutal attacks on civilian energy infrastructure in Ukraine.” The latter responded to the US President’s directives by saying, “The war in Ukraine has not yet ended, contrary to the goal that the latter set since the beginning of his term.”
European concern
What Meretz calls for also applies to the French President, the British Prime Minister, the President of the European Commission, and others. For his part, Emmanuel Macron denounced the recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities. This contradicts President Trump's call for a truce that addresses its energy facilities, and he also called for its expansion to include the Black Sea. But the difficulty lies in that the revelation of the alleged truce came from President Trump on Sunday, and it was a "surprise" for Ukraine and the Europeans alike.
The common European position is based on rejecting what Macron called “succumbing to Russian blackmail,” but despite this conflict, consultations between the two sides of the Atlantic regarding Ukraine are still continuing. The Europeans fear that the new tension between Trump and Zelensky will reflect on the Europeans’ purchases of American weapons for the benefit of Kiev. Hence, it can be understood what Macron said during his visit to the auto show in Paris, on Monday afternoon, that he would communicate with Trump “at a later time.”
Also, Meretz announced that three foreign policy advisors in Berlin, Paris, and London went to Washington at the end of the week for a round of talks with their American counterparts about the Ukrainian file.
There is a European conviction that Russia is planning beyond Ukraine. Western news agencies quoted Sinan Selin, head of the German domestic intelligence service, that Moscow seeks to redraw the geopolitical landscape in Europe, and that Russia's hostile behavior towards Europe will continue, and that it is not related to the duration of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Berlin accuses Moscow of carrying out a series of sabotage, deception, and espionage operations, including an attempt to blow up a Ukrainian plane using a bomb-laden drone at Leipzig Airport, eastern Germany, from which military aid to Kiev is launched. Selin warned, on the occasion of a conference hosted by Berlin, that “the Russian hybrid threat already exists, and has long been separated from developments in the situation in Ukraine.” The German Chief of Staff had previously expected a Russian military operation in Europe before the end of the current decade. This justifies the increase in German and European military spending, which is the prevailing French expectation. In the same vein, Mikhail Dudelka, head of the Czech Security Service, was quoted on the same occasion as saying that Russia may resort in the coming months to carrying out more dangerous and influential operations in NATO member states that support Ukraine, and that Russian hybrid activities aim to weaken NATO’s military unity.
On Tuesday, France witnessed a new wave of student protests, amid the movement aimed at improving educational conditions, while a number of schools remained closed throughout the country on Monday.
As students seek to maintain the momentum of the movement that began in mid-September, some view the protests scheduled for Tuesday as a turning point, while the government hopes that the movement has begun to decline.
On Friday, the government indicated a significant decrease in the number of secondary schools that witnessed suspension of lessons or protests outside their doors. The Ministry of Education said that more than 96 percent of secondary schools were open on Friday.
In an incident that has not yet been proven to be linked to the student movement, a teenager opened fire with a hunting rifle on Monday, wounding a middle school principal and a teacher in Aubagne, near Marseille (south), before his weapon was disarmed. It is expected that the Minister of Education, Edouard Jeffrey, and the Minister of Interior, Laurent Nuñez, will go to the location.
Jeffrey denounced on the “X” platform an “unacceptable act,” considering that it reflects “the growth of uncontrolled violence in our society.”
For his part, President Emmanuel Macron praised “the educational team’s composure and exemplary reaction,” which “allowed the worst to be avoided.”
Regarding the movement of secondary school students, 96.5 percent of educational institutions were open on Monday morning, while 130 institutions were closed, compared to 172 on Friday. The Ministry of Education confirmed that “activity is clearly declining...”, but it did not announce the number of institutions whose activities were disrupted due to the closure of their entrances.
She said, “Despite the decline in the closure of institutions, acts of violence are escalating,” noting that “at least eight national education workers were injured” on Monday morning.
Macron demanded that the move take place “calmly and orderly, and with respect for both persons and property.”
The French President rarely commented on the student movement since its launch in mid-September, before it expanded to include all parts of France.
Educational institutions in a number of major cities are still closed due to the protests, or are experiencing disruption in their activities. In the Paris region, where the activities of about 80 secondary schools were disrupted, a school principal, one of the students' parents, and an employee were infected on Monday morning.
The authorities are keen to end the wave of student protests, especially after online activists issued calls for additional demonstrations next Saturday to protest living conditions.
These calls bring to mind the “yellow vest” movement, which in 2018 led to mass demonstrations, including clashes with the police, in protest against a plan to raise fuel prices during Macron’s first term.
* Significant damage
The French authorities are still counting the losses resulting from the protests so far. A government source told reporters last week that the cost of the damage “is no less than 30 million euros.”
On Friday, the Ministry of Justice announced that more than 6,800 people had been arrested since the start of the demonstrations, 86 percent of whom were minors.
Clashes with riot police resulted in serious injuries among students, sparking widespread criticism of police practices and prompting the government to temporarily ban the use of stun grenades after one of them caused the amputation of a student's hand. The police launched 18 internal investigations regarding accusations against its members.
Last week, the government tried to respond to students' demands by presenting concrete proposals.
Prime Minister Sebastian Lecorno promised on Sunday that the 2027 budget would include more resources allocated to schools, with the aim of responding to a number of demands expressed by students through an electronic platform created by the government.
However, these initiatives were not enough to convince the student organizations behind the protests.
The Secondary School Students Union considered that the government’s announcements do not in any way meet the demands, which include investing an additional 10 million euros to improve the situation of secondary schools throughout the country.
10,000 medical students in France are currently afraid of the possible repercussions of the protests over exams scheduled for Monday, which will determine their future specialization, and thus represent a decisive moment in their educational path.
Last week, student demonstrations succeeded in attracting tens of thousands across the country. According to Interior Ministry figures, the number of participants last Thursday reached about 71,500 people. Nearly 256,000 people participated during the mobilization day last Tuesday.
An opinion poll conducted by Ipsos-BVI, published on Sunday, showed that 54 percent of respondents support the recent student protests.
They particularly support the demands related to reducing overcrowding in classrooms and the necessity of renovating schools, according to Agence France-Presse.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Britain and the United States will continue to impose additional sanctions on Iran and its criminal networks
Likely · Within weeks
The European Union will host additional conferences on reducing sanctions evasion on Russia via the 'stealth fleet'
Likely · Within months
Student protests in France will continue and may escalate if the government does not respond to the demands
Possible · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What specific evidence does Britain have regarding the IRGC's involvement in the Fairford base plot?
- Will new European sanctions on Russia lead to a change in Moscow's behavior in Ukraine?
- How long will student protests continue in France and what demands have yet to be met?
- How will tension between Trump and Zelensky affect US support for Ukraine?







