The Central Bank of the Russian Federation promised to take into account all the data when deciding on the key rate in October

The Central Bank (CB) of the Russian Federation at the October meeting of the board of directors on the key rate will take into account the entire set of incoming data, not limited to the budget factor. This was stated by the deputy chairman of the regulator, Alexey Zabotkin, who was quoted by Interfax.

Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina also recalled that in September the Bank of Russia did not give directional signals regarding further changes in the rate. “Taking into account the fact that the parameters of the budget policy fit into what was in the July forecast, the announced budget parameters will most likely not have a significant impact on the forecast in October,” he added.

According to Zabotkin, data for April-August shows that “growth rates in most industries bottomed out at the end of 2025 or early 2026,” which will ensure modest but positive GDP figures for the year and, in the absence of additional strong shocks, a return of economic growth in 2027 and beyond to its long-term trend.

The Central Bank kept its key rate at 14 percent in September after cuts over the previous ten meetings. In July, the Central Bank set the primary structural deficit of the federal budget for 2026 in the amount of 2 percent of GDP, for 2027 - 1 percent, 2028 - 0.5 percent, but the final budget projections turned out to be slightly lower than these estimates, amounting to 1.8, 0.6 and 0.2 percent of GDP, respectively, with the indicator reaching zero in 2029.