‘The strongest El Niño ever’ is coming… It's likely to be warm and rainy this winter

Beyond the 'super strong', the 'strongest' El Niño is expected to continue this winter.

The Korea Meteorological Administration announced on the 6th that El Niño, which started in May, is expected to be the ‘strongest El Niño ever.’

El Niño is considered to have occurred on the first day when the sea surface temperature in the El Niño/La Niña monitoring area in the tropical Pacific remains 0.5 degrees higher than normal on a three-month moving average for more than five months.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the sea surface temperature in the El Niño/La Niña monitoring area from the 11th to the 17th of last month was 30.0 degrees, 3.3 degrees above the normal level. If the deviation from normal is more than 1.5 degrees, it is classified as 'strong El Niño', and this standard is far exceeded.

The average annual deviation of sea surface temperature in the El Niño/La Niña monitoring area was 2.6 degrees as of October and 2.4 degrees based on the moving average from August to October.

The Korea Meteorological Administration explained that this is the largest deviation since 1950, when data was available, and exceeds the records of 1997 and 2015, when El Niño occurred strongly.

El Niño is a phenomenon in which the trade winds (eastern winds) that transport warm surface water from the tropical Pacific to the western Pacific weaken, and the warm surface water accumulated in the western Pacific spreads to the central and eastern Pacific, raising the sea surface temperature in this region, resulting in a different energy cycle than usual.

El Niño is not a result of climate change and is so 'natural' that the first official records of the phenomenon date back to 1881. However, it affects the weather around the world and also fuels warming.

El Niño usually becomes stronger in the winter, and this El Niño is expected to reach its peak in December.

The Korea Meteorological Administration said, “As the sea surface temperature in the El Niño/La Niña monitoring area continues to remain high, it is expected to develop into the strongest El Niño ever.”

When El Niño occurs, convection activity in the tropical western Pacific weakens, and anticyclonic circulation develops frequently in the Philippine Sea and east of Korea.

At the same time, hot and humid southerly winds blow into the country along the edge of the anticyclonic circulation, raising temperatures and increasing precipitation.

In fact, at the Korean Meteorological Society conference last month, Professor Jongseong Kok's research team at Seoul National University announced that in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16 when El Niño developed strongly, precipitation in November during the El Niño development period was more than twice that of normal November.

In the three-month forecast announced on the 23rd of last month, the Korea Meteorological Administration predicted that temperatures would be higher than normal and precipitation would be higher than normal in November and December, and that in January next year, temperatures would be higher than normal and precipitation would be similar to normal.

However, the Korea Meteorological Administration emphasized, "Winter weather is affected by various climate factors such as El Niño, as well as sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean, sea ice in the Arctic, and snow cover on the Eurasian continent, so you must check the latest forecast."