[Reporter Zhang Huiwen/Taipei Report] Affected by the fear of the United States announcing an interest rate hike, Taiwan stocks fell nearly a thousand points last Friday, falling 366 points for the week, leaving an upper shadow line of 854 points. It seemed that the pressure for correction was increasing, but all U.S. stocks closed in the red; legal representative said It said that due to inflation, war and other issues, the global stock market is "red in the red but full of worries". However, Taiwan stocks are still the only market among the major stock markets in the United States, Europe and Asia to hold on to the monthly, quarterly, half-year and annual lines. It is recommended to operate in the manner of "pull back to find high-quality stocks, buy black but not red".
Hu Ruihan, chairman of Yuanta Investment Consulting, analyzed that the international stock market seems to be "red in red but full of worries". As the war continues, inflationary pressure will be difficult to resolve, and whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaks through the 5% psychological mark is also a focus of external observation. It is estimated that the international stock market still needs to test the downside support, but Taiwan stocks do not necessarily have to look at U.S. stocks. Face, there is a chance to continue to maintain a market that is stronger than the performance of U.S. and European stocks. However, electronic stocks are affected by the international market. Even if the performance is super good, they still cannot lead the rise every day. The current operation advice is to "pull back to find high-quality stocks, buy black but not red." And the regular quota of good ETFs should not be cut off. Pull back and you can increase the amount at regular intervals.
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Kuo Xiucheng, manager of Dahua Unicorn 30, said that the fourth quarter has entered the peak season for stocking and consumption of new traditional technology products. In addition, the four major cloud service providers (CSPs) in the United States continue to expand capital expenditures on AI infrastructure. The Taiwan stock supply chain extends from advanced wafer foundry processes and optical communications to server assembly and liquid cooling. The order visibility has reached 2027. In addition, the next generation AI PC The increase in the penetration rate of smart phone terminals has driven the IC channel and consumer electronics sectors to make up for the growth; as for the non-electronics group, the financial industry has benefited from the explosion of capital gains and fee income in the first three quarters, and the full-year profit is expected to hit a record high. The combination of high dividend characteristics and profit margins will continue to play a defensive and supporting role. Shipping and heavy electric infrastructure will provide additional operational flexibility due to freight rate support and global transformation needs.
Yushan Taiwan Market Cap Momentum 50 ETF manager Cai Changchen said that although U.S. government bond yields continue to rise and bond market volatility heats up, stock market sentiment remains quite stable, and the VIX index also remains low, reflecting investors' confidence in corporate profits and fundamentals. The short-term pressure on the market comes from the discount rate pressure caused by the continued rise in real interest rates, not the risk of recession; he believes that the current Taiwan stock market After counterattacking at a high level, there is a shock, and when there is a pullback, buying orders enter the market, showing relatively strong resilience. Short-term interest rates and geopolitics may increase market shocks, but before there is a significant reversal in fundamentals, the medium and long-term bullish trend of Taiwan stocks is supported. It is recommended to use market capitalization ETFs to layout, which can help resist short-term market shocks and pullbacks. On the other hand, use large market capitalization stocks to grasp the rebound.
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