■Jiang Minghong
Taiwan stocks are currently at a relatively high-end position. In the short-term, affected by the large increase in the previous wave and the fluctuations in the international market, the amplitude of the shock may intensify. However, from the perspective of economic and industrial data, the overall situation is still a "high-end shock, bullish fundamentals" pattern with support and pressure on evaluation. This wave of retracement is more like a correction of market evaluation and capital profit-taking, rather than a reversal of the economy.
Exports in August were US$82.4 billion, and exports exceeded US$22.3 billion. Double-write a new page.
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From the general economic and export data, exports in August reached US$82.4 billion, an annual increase of 41%, setting a new monthly high, and growing for 34 consecutive months, chasing the longest export expansion period in Taiwan's history; exports exceeded US$22.3 billion, also setting a new record. Among them, electronic components increased by 58% year-on-year, and information communications and audio-visual products increased by 42% year-on-year. The momentum of the main industries remains strong. In terms of leading companies, TSMC's revenue in August was 514.8 billion yuan, breaking through the 500 billion yuan mark for the first time, with an annual increase of 53%. The cumulative revenue in the first eight months increased by 39% year-on-year, and it is estimated that third-quarter revenue will increase by about 12% from the previous quarter. It has also raised capital expenditures this year to 60 billion to 64 billion US dollars, showing that companies still have confidence in follow-up demand.
The main reason for the pullback of Taiwan stocks this time is the revision of valuations and capital profit-taking. Industrial and economic fundamentals are still on the positive side, and the recession has reversed. The downside space is relatively supportive. (AFP)
Recent market pressure has mainly come from rising oil prices and interest rates. After Brent crude oil exceeded US$100 per barrel, market concerns about inflation increased, and the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond yield also rose to 4.84%. Such general economic variables will compress the price-to-earnings ratio that the market is willing to give, putting high price-to-earnings ratio technology growth stocks under correction pressure, but it does not mean that the company's profitability has deteriorated. Judging from the market performance, although foreign capital and self-operated traders are on the sell side, investment trusts continue to be overbought, and there is no panic selling pressure in the market. Although the groups that have experienced larger gains in the past have retreated deeper, the decline in weighted stocks has been limited and even bucked the trend and ended in the red, which means that funds remain in the market and are reallocated to different groups.
Funds spread to infrastructure groups. Experts recommend "layout in batches every time"
In terms of industry rotation and investment opportunities, AI and semiconductors are still the main growth axes, and the focus has spread from large-capitalization stocks to other AI supply chains. In addition to wafer foundry and advanced packaging, AI infrastructure-related groups such as PCB, high-speed transmission, heat dissipation, power supply and optical communication are all worthy of continued attention. It is recommended that capital allocation should focus on AI and semiconductors with high visibility of revenue and profit growth, while also collaborating with financial and communication groups to diversify industry risks. The operating strategy should also shift from "price chasing" to "adjustment layout". Those who are optimistic about the long term can adopt batch layout and do not need to excessively chase highs and sell lows due to short-term fluctuations. Active investors can take advantage of market shocks to rotate industries and set up reasonable risk control mechanisms, while investors with low risk tolerance can moderately increase defensive asset allocation.
Follow-up observation indicators look at U.S. debt, oil prices and AI capital expenditures
Key variables still need to be tracked in the future, including U.S. interest rate policy, U.S. bond yields, oil prices, geopolitical risks, whether capital expenditures in the AI industry continue to grow, and whether Brent crude oil can fall below $100 per barrel. The real warning signs that you really need to pay attention to at this stage are that the annual export growth rate has turned negative, leading companies have revised down their financial forecasts, and capital expenditures have begun to shrink. Before that, this wave of shocks was more like a high-end consolidation.
(The author is the fund manager of FT Taiwan Perpetual High Interest ETF (00961))
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