Reporter Lin Jinghua/Special report
The explosion of AI computing power has put Taiwan in a key position in the global AI supply chain. From wafer manufacturing, advanced packaging, high-end memory, to servers, cooling and power supply equipment, the industry continues to expand, and it has also promoted Taiwan's rapid economic growth. However, another question comes with the AI business opportunity: can the power supply keep up? Every time Huang Jen-Hsun, CEO of Huida, visits Taiwan, he almost always asks questions about energy and electricity. In the face of external doubts, Taipower emphasizes that the future power supply is "absolutely sufficient."
The craze for AI computing power has triggered global demand, and Taiwan has risen to a core position with its advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes and complete supply chain ecosystem. (Reuters)
The Ministry of Economic Affairs released the latest power resource supply and demand report in June this year, which has taken into account economic growth, temperature factors, semiconductor factory expansion, data centers and AI technology and other new power demand estimates. The average power consumption growth rate in the next ten years has been revised up from the previous estimate of 1.7% to 2.5%, which is already higher than Japan, South Korea and other countries.
However, the development speed of AI has exceeded expectations, and the Executive Yuan recently requested the Ministry of Economic Affairs to adopt a "wide estimate" strategy. Executive President Zhuo Rongtai recently revealed that electricity demand will be adjusted to a safe range; Minister of Economic Affairs Gong Mingxin also said that electricity consumption estimates have different scenarios such as high, medium and low. In order to ensure stable power supply, the government prefers to prepare for higher scenarios. Even if high estimates are adopted, the currently planned power supply can still support industry demand.
The demand for electricity driven by AI is most directly reflected in the semiconductor industry. From front-end wafer manufacturing, mid-end advanced packaging to back-end high-end memory, Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain is fully expanding. Taipower's internal estimates show that semiconductor electricity consumption this year is about 52 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 17% of Taiwan's total electricity consumption; it will climb to 80 billion kilowatt-hours in 2030, and may reach 110 billion kilowatt-hours in 2035. By then, the proportion of semiconductor electricity consumption will increase to about 30%, which means that for every 3 kilowatt-hours of electricity in Taiwan, nearly 1 kilowatt-hour is supplied to the semiconductor industry.
For every 3 kilowatt hours of electricity in Taiwan, nearly 1 kilowatt hour is supplied to the semiconductor industry.
Facing the rapid increase in electricity consumption in the future, Taiwan's power layout in the next five to 10 years will focus on large-scale updating of thermal power units, while increasing renewable energy, energy storage, and strengthening the power grid.
With the increase in solar photovoltaics, Taiwan's power supply capacity during the day is relatively abundant, and the power supply pressure has gradually shifted to the nighttime peak after the sun goes down. Therefore, in the future, high-efficiency gas units must be used together with energy storage, hydropower and renewable energy for dispatch.
Currently, Taipower's large thermal power plants, including Taichung, Hsingda, Tongxiao, Dalin, and Xiehe, are successively updating and replacing their units. If coupled with private gas-fired power generation plans such as Guoguang Electric Power and Mailiao Steam and Electric, it is estimated that between 2026 and 2035, the cumulative increase in gas-fired power units will be approximately 26GW, equivalent to 26 million kilowatts, and will become an important pillar for the growth of electricity in the next 10 years.
Taiwan power supply test questions in the AI era
However, Taipower also admitted frankly that the speed of power construction is far slower than that of the technology industry. An electronics factory may be completed and put into operation in two or three years, but large power plants often take longer from planning, construction to grid connection. How to keep the speed of power construction keeping up with the expansion of the AI industry will be a major challenge in the future.
In 2035, the renewable energy power demand of the semiconductor industry will exceed 88 billion kWh
Taiwan's real concern may not be just "whether there is electricity", but "whether there is enough green electricity." In addition to requiring 24-hour stable power supply, major semiconductor and technology manufacturers must also comply with carbon reduction commitments such as RE100 and RE80. Taipower's latest estimate is that the semiconductor industry's renewable energy power demand will reach 88 billion kilowatt-hours in 2035, which is more than twice Taiwan's total renewable energy power generation of 38.5 billion kilowatt-hours last year. Among Taiwan's green power last year, photovoltaics generated the most power with 16.7 billion kilowatt-hours, offshore wind power generated 9.4 billion kilowatt-hours, and onshore wind power generated 2.8 billion kilowatt-hours. The total wind power generation was about 12.2 billion kilowatt-hours.
However, demand for AI data centers, semiconductor production expansion and enterprise RE100 continue to rise, and the growth rate of green power demand has gradually exceeded supply. AI has put Taiwan at the core of the global supply chain and made electricity the next key competitiveness. The next five years will depend on whether new power construction can be completed as scheduled, and the next 10 years will test whether green power supply can keep up with industrial demand. This will be an important test question whether Taiwan can continue to take on AI business opportunities.
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