Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads the electoral scene in Israel today, Thursday (October 29, 2026), as vote counting continues, but his loss of the parliamentary majority makes his path to a new term dependent on his ability to win over his opponents and persuade them to join a government coalition.
Following elections that witnessed a record turnout on Tuesday (October 29, 2026), and after nearly 86 percent of the votes had been counted, estimates by the three main Israeli television channels indicated that Netanyahu’s camp, which includes parties from the right, the extreme right, and religious ultra-Orthodox parties, is on its way to obtaining 53 seats in Parliament, while the opposition camp led by his rival Gadi Eisenkot comes in second place with 48 seats.
Neither party was able to decide the elections in its favor and reach the threshold of 61 seats required to achieve a majority in the Israeli Parliament (the Knesset), while expectations indicate that the parties representing the Arabs will obtain 19 seats.
Aviv Bushinsky, a former advisor to Netanyahu, said: “This may be difficult to acknowledge or even clarify, but he is the winner,” describing the prime minister’s return to the forefront as a political “resurrection.” Bushinsky added that the irony is that the elections that deprived Netanyahu of a majority in Parliament may have restored his dominant political position.
Despite the repercussions of the terrorist attack led by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the volume of criticism directed at Netanyahu due to the security failures that occurred during his reign and which were revealed by that attack, the Prime Minister received the support of an unexpectedly clear majority of Israeli Jews, to take the lead at the head of the largest parliamentary bloc.
Danny Citrinovic, an analyst specializing in regional affairs and a former Israeli military intelligence officer, said that Netanyahu's achievement was not victory in the traditional sense as much as it was embodied in the ability to survive.
Netanyahu's bloc lost seats and did not achieve the number required to rule on its own, but Eisenkot's camp also lacks a realistic path to reaching power without support from Arab parties.
"He won (just because) he didn't lose. He managed to survive," Citrinovic said.
Arabs in Israel are making gains
Benjamin Netanyahu will remain the head of the caretaker government until the President of Israel decides who he will assign to form the government. Although he does not have a parliamentary majority, he still has the advantage of incumbency and the opportunity to form a coalition government.
But the biggest surprises in the elections came from Arab voters in Israel, whose unprecedented turnout gave Arab parties an influence that may be decisive on the course of future events.
Arabs in Israel constitute 21 percent of the population, are of Palestinian origins and hold Israeli citizenship, and they can now favor one of the two competing camps over the other.
"The Arabs have never been in a position where they have this much power," said Dennis Ross, a former US negotiator in the Middle East peace negotiations.
Netanyahu's opponents face a difficult road to remove him. Forming a government will likely require direct or indirect support from Arab parties, a prospect that may be very difficult for potential partners from the right such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.
A broad national unity government or new elections
Israeli political analysts say that this situation leaves two main paths: either forming a broader national unity government led by Netanyahu, or holding other elections.
Bushinsky believes that the unity government is the most realistic option, especially if US President Donald Trump pressures Netanyahu to include rivals in the government and marginalize the far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Bushinsky said that the United States is Israel's most important ally, and Trump can use his public support for Netanyahu as a pressure card to push for the formation of a broader coalition.
If this scenario fails, Israel may remain in political stagnation and return to the polls, a move that a number of political analysts said could strengthen Netanyahu's position rather than change the outcome of the elections.
Citrinovic explains that the stalemate puts Netanyahu in a better position than Eisenkot to assume the premiership. Since holding another election is undesirable for most parties, Citrinovic views the formation of a national unity government led by Netanyahu, perhaps including Eisenkot or Bennett, as the most logical option.
Iran casts a shadow over the power struggle
Since the October 7 attacks, Israel has fought wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and launched attacks jointly with the United States on Iran.
It is noteworthy that the Hamas movement is an armed Palestinian Islamic group, classified in Germany, the European Union, the United States and other countries as a terrorist organization.
In a post-election speech to his cheering supporters, Netanyahu called for the formation of a “strong right-wing national government” and described Israel’s military gains as a historic opportunity to eliminate the Iranian threat. وقال "أمام إسرائيل فرصة تاريخية فريدة، بالتعاون مع شريكنا الرئيس ترامب، للقضاء التام على التهديد الوجودي الذي تشكله إيران. لكن يجب ألا نسمح لأي دوافع خفية أن تصرفنا عن هذه المهمة المقدسة".
Trump, who urged the Israelis to keep Netanyahu in power so that together they can “get the job done” in Iran, said the prime minister “did well” in the elections, and credited his support for him. Trump said: “He may be on his way to a win or a draw, and a tie in this case is a win, because it is like a great chess match.”
ولعل السؤال الأكثر أهمية هو ما إذا كان نتنياهو، الذي يكافح للبقاء في منصبه، سيلجأ مرة أخرى إلى التحديات الأمنية التي تواجه إسرائيل، وفي مقدمتها إيران، لإعادة تشكيل المعادلة السياسية.
وقد يؤدي تجدد المواجهة مع طهران إلى تعزيز دعواته إلى الوحدة الوطنية، على الرغم من أن أي تصعيد سيعتمد بشكل كبير على واشنطن.
Gadi Eisenkot, 66, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, sought to claim this mandate by portraying the elections as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership.
In a message to the leaders of the security services and public employees in Israel, Eisenkot said that Netanyahu now heads a transitional government that has lost public confidence. He added: "Stand firmly in the face of any attempt to pressure you."
Netanyahu ran into the election burdened by a long-running trial on corruption charges, resistance to an independent investigation into the Hamas-led attack, escalating settler violence in the occupied West Bank, and a bitter battle over military service exemptions.
