According to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials, in order to reach an "energy ceasefire" before the coming cold winter, the United States is supporting a bold plan: allowing Russia to quickly restore natural gas supplies to Europe through pipelines through the warring country of Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal exclusively disclosed that according to people involved in the discussion, this plan was proposed by U.S. special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff when they visited Moscow and Kiev in September. The core of the plan is to use U.S. middlemen as agents to sell Russian natural gas to Europe to circumvent EU sanctions. This will not only provide Russia with incentives to resume supply, but will also create lucrative business opportunities for U.S. investors.
Last month, under pressure from US President Trump, Kiev unilaterally suspended attacks on Russian oil refineries. However, as the Russian military continued to bomb Ukrainian energy facilities and Moscow began shipping diesel to the United States, Ukraine resumed air strikes on October 30, attacking three major Russian refineries within three days.
Ukraine's violent counterattack has made the United States more urgent, hoping to reach a more comprehensive energy ceasefire agreement before the trilateral peace talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine that are expected to be held in Abu Dhabi in mid-November. U.S. negotiators believe that allowing Russia to return to the European natural gas market will be a powerful inducement to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire. At the same time, restarting the Soviet-era pipeline from Siberia's Urengoi gas field to Europe through Ukraine could also bring much-needed transit fee revenue to Kyiv.
A senior U.S. official revealed that the White House even proposed that Russia deposit the proceeds from gas sales into a third-party escrow account to ensure that the Kremlin cannot use the money to finance the war. The United States is trying to sell this plan to European leaders on the grounds of "lowering European energy prices" because Europe's current natural gas reserves have fallen to seasonal lows in several years.
The report pointed out that this plan to promote the export of Russian gas to Europe forms a 180-degree "hairpin turn" with Trump's stance during his first term. At that time, Trump severely criticized German Chancellor Angela Merkel's construction of the "Nord Stream 2" pipeline, which would make Germany a "captive of Russia", and imposed sanctions at the end of 2019.
However, after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Europe has regarded its energy dependence on Russia as a strategic weakness. The EU has legislated to significantly reduce Russian natural gas imports and stipulate that it will be completely banned by the end of 2027. Currently, the EU's official position is that it will not resume purchases of Russian natural gas even if a comprehensive peace agreement is reached with Russia.
Dan Jorgensen, the European Commission's energy commissioner, made it clear last month that the ban on Russian gas imports should be permanent. "I will never trust Russia. Even if there is peace tomorrow, we all hope for it."
Although the Trump administration is betting that Europe's resistance may not be as resolute as it appears, privately, many top European officials have been extremely direct in their reactions. A Nordic official said that resuming the purchase of Gazprom goes against all the values that Europe upholds; another senior European power official compared the move to former British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's "appeasement policy" of sacrificing Czechoslovakia to Hitler for commercial interests.
Despite Europe's strong resistance, developments may force it to compromise. European officials admit that the aftermath of the war between the United States and Iran is weakening Europe's resistance. Qatar's liquefied natural gas was trapped in the Persian Gulf due to the war, and global energy prices soared, causing Europe to spend an additional 100 billion euros (approximately NT$3.6 trillion) in energy bills due to the war.
At present, Europe's underground natural gas reserves are only about 75%, and it is about to enter the cold winter with inventories lower than the average level of the past nine years. Germany's main opposition party, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), has made the resumption of imports of cheap Russian natural gas a key campaign demand in the 2028 national election.
Diplomats pointed out that if the Kiev authorities agree to the gas sales plan as part of a ceasefire to avoid power outages and humanitarian disasters in major Ukrainian cities, it will be politically easier for European countries to change their stance not to buy Gazprom. The likelihood of such a compromise is growing, especially as Ukraine's air defenses are depleted and the United States restricts the supply of Patriot missiles due to a global shortage of interceptor missiles caused by the Iran war.
