U.S. mid-term elections, delays in determining majority, fear of confusion due to mail-in voting fraud

[Washington Current Affairs] There is a view that the majorities in both houses of Congress, which will be the focus of the US midterm elections on November 3, will not be known for some time. This is because some states allow mail-in ballots that arrive after the election day to be valid, which takes time to count. President Trump has criticized mail-in voting as a ``hotbed of fraud,'' but recently he has taken a turn and called for its use. If counting takes a long time in closely contested districts, there is a risk of confusion.

Trump again uses mail-in voting, which he criticizes as ``inherently corrupt''

"You can vote by mail. I want you to vote anyway." Mr. Trump began his appeal at a recent campaign rally. On the 19th, early voting began in southern states such as Texas, where the Senate race is fiercely contested. According to a tally by the University of Florida, registered voters affiliated with the Democratic Party overwhelmingly voted, and appear to be growing impatient to the point where they have no choice but to encourage people to vote by mail, which they have long criticized.

The use of mail-in voting has rapidly increased due to the coronavirus pandemic, and it accounted for about 30% of all votes cast in the 2024 presidential election. Counting requires identity verification, and in 15 states, votes that arrive at election authorities at a later date will be considered valid if they meet certain conditions, such as being postmarked by the day the vote is counted, which is believed to be one reason for the delay in determining the winner.

In the previous midterm elections in 2022, the majority in the Senate was known four days after the vote count, and in the House of Representatives eight days later. Even in the primaries leading up to this mid-term election, in Western California, where mail-in voting is popular, it took a week for candidates to advance to the general election for governor to be finalized. U.S. Public Radio (NPR) points out that "it could take several weeks" for a majority to be determined.

Trump has been criticizing mail-in voting due to bitter memories of his defeat in the 2020 presidential election. In some closely contested states, votes were counted first on election day, giving Mr. Trump an early lead, but as mail-in voting, which is often used by Democrats, began to be counted, former President Biden lost ground. This phenomenon is called the "red mirage," after the color of the Republican Party.

At the time, Trump unilaterally claimed that large-scale fraud had taken place and refused to accept defeat, leading to the attack on the U.S. Capitol in January 2021. He repeatedly mentioned fraud in the recent midterm elections. On the 15th of this month, the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit alleging that the state of California allegedly mailed ballots to more than 20,000 people who are not U.S. citizens. There are growing concerns that if mail-in voting determines the majority contest in both houses of Congress, distrust in the election results will deepen and conflicts will intensify.