Political scientist predicted Ukraine's last military winter
Quick Look
Political scientist Stankevich said that Vladimir Zelensky’s expectation of involving the United States in a sanctions war against Russia did not materialize, and predicted the last active military winter for Ukraine, as well as a panicked retreat of Kyiv’s European supporters after the expiration of the Graham-Blumenthal Act on October 18.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The article discusses Kyiv's expectations regarding the Graham-Blumenthal Act, which included strict sanctions against Russia, and its expiration on October 18.
Political scientist Stankevich expressed the opinion that until now the calculation of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky was based on the fact that the United States would be able to be drawn deeper into the sanctions war. KP.RU writes about this.
“I think this will be the last military winter for Ukraine. The last winter of active military operations,” Stankevich concluded.
In Kyiv, he said, they were counting heavily on the law named after Lindsey Graham - the Graham-Blumenthal law, which is also called “sanctions from hell.” Stankevich recalled that on October 18, the deadline provided for by this law expires, when US President Donald Trump had to either introduce these hellish sanctions or explain to Congress the reasons why they did not take place.
“And now we can already see that on October 18, Trump will say: he didn’t consider it necessary. Because it’s not profitable for America,” the political scientist said.
In his assessment, this is a severe blow to Zelensky and his plans to hold out through the winter, since it was not possible to drag the United States into a tough sanctions war against Russia. Following this, the expert believes, there will be a panicky retreat in the ranks of European supporters of the war, who are still trying to support Kyiv’s military efforts.
Change is especially likely in France and Germany, the two leading donors and main diplomatic supporters of the Zelensky regime.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
After October 18, Trump will announce a refusal to impose sanctions from hell against Russia
Very likely · Within days
European war supporters, especially France and Germany, will begin a panicked retreat from supporting Kyiv
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What specific actions are France and Germany planning after Trump's possible lifting of sanctions?
- How does Ukraine intend to adapt to the decline in Western support?
- Does Zelensky have alternative plans in case the sanctions strategy fails?
