Decrease in oil exports in the Gulf countries and Iran during August

According to the Tanker Trackers platform for tracking the movement of oil tankers, the deficit in exports during August amounted to about 7.2 million barrels per day, compared to a deficit of 12.4 million barrels per day in May, which recorded the largest decline during the year, at 67% from the baseline.

The data includes Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the Sultanate of Oman, the Emirates, and Qatar, amid expectations that most of these countries will recover part of their exports in the coming months.

However, Iran's exports, whose baseline is 1.68 million barrels per day, may remain at zero in the foreseeable future, according to estimates, until an agreement is reached that allows the resumption of oil flows.

The sharp decline in Iranian oil exports has increased pressure on energy markets and the Iranian economy, as the absence of Iranian crude has prompted Asian refineries, especially in China, to search for alternatives and increase competition for available supplies.

On the other hand, tanker tracking data showed a discrepancy in the ability of countries in the region to restore their exports during August, as the UAE’s exports returned almost to pre-unrest levels, while Iraq and Kuwait recorded a decline of about 36%, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar by about 48%, while Iran’s exports remained almost at a standstill. Shipment tracking estimates indicate that Iranian crude exports fell to about 220-255 thousand barrels per day in August, compared to about two million barrels per day in March, with continued disruption to the transit of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.