The identity crisis that threatens Democrats' ambition in a crucial election for Trump

James Stevens calls himself a democratic socialist.

A 24-year-old film student, he is the kind of Democrat reminiscent of a provocative American left-wing commentator, Hasan Piker, six years ago, "before he gained relevance in politics."

Last year, Stevens left his home in the US state of Georgia for New York, to work on the campaign of the city's current mayor, Zohran Mamdani.

His mother, Tamara, is 56 years old and is also a Democrat. But she is different.

She was a Republican when she was young and became a Democrat after watching former President Barack Obama on Oprah Winfrey's TV show.

Currently, she is loyal to the party, defends reproductive rights, participates in campaign rallies and makes donations to local candidates.

Mother and son want Democrats to gain control of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections (3). But they don't fully agree on what they want for their party.

"I'm really tired of seeing how flexible Democrats are about Republican policies that don't benefit a large group of people," says Stevens, as her mother looks on. "There needs to be a bold vision among Democrats."

He believes the party should adopt policies advocated by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a left-wing splinter group. For him, that means anti-Zionism, withdrawal of corporate funding from politics, and free government-run healthcare.

The conventional view in Washington is that Democrats are in a strong position to take control of the House of Representatives, and possibly even the Senate, in the November 3 elections.

Structural conditions favor the Democratic Party. After all, Republican Donald Trump's approval rating is at an all-time low for a mid-term president. It is a level comparable to that of former President George W. Bush in 2006, during his second term.

The war in Iran is not over yet and is proving unpopular with the American electorate. And the conflict led to an increase in gasoline prices, which has disappointed an electorate already concerned about the rising cost of living.

Traditionally, the midterms are a referendum on which president is in power. The governing party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 U.S. midterm elections.

Yet despite all these circumstances, the Democratic Party is also unpopular across the country.

The average of polls from the Real Clear Politics portal shows that the American public considers the Democrats to be only slightly better than the Republicans. And recent surveys have concluded that the Democratic Party still has an unfavorable balance in its evaluation by American citizens.

Political analysts say that if Republicans can buck the trends and survive the November elections with a lead in Congress, one of the main reasons will be because the majority of American voters also don't like the Democratic Party (or the Democrats' brand).

Behind the headlines about which party or candidates will win on Tuesday, there is also a story about the Democratic identity raised by this election. There is a struggle between institutionalists and reformists — people who want gradual changes and those who demand profound transformations.

The question is: who will win in the long run?

The party that isn't Trump's?

I've covered every American national election over the past 12 years. And this is an unusual claim.

I interviewed voters before the 2018 midterms, during Donald Trump's first term, and was surprised by how united many Democratic voters were in their opposition to the president.

This time, I realized that beneath the facade of unity, there is a struggle going on.

There are systematic questions about the role of the Democratic Party. And these divisions emerged during the primaries of this election campaign.

"The party's identity is quite nebulous," according to researcher Ruy Teixeira, from the center-right think tank Instituto Empresarial Americano.

"He's all focused on reacting to the Trump administration and taking advantage of what is a thermostatic reaction to the administration... Outside of that, there are all these different factions in the party."

Part of the reason for this infighting among Democrats is that the party never had the possibility of having this contest during the 2024 presidential race, with the sudden withdrawal of Joe Biden, months before the election, and the nomination of Kamala Harris as its candidate.

Analysts agree that if Democrats have big wins in this election, the party will not resolve deeper unresolved issues. They will try to remain cohesive to gather votes in Congress or keep an eye on the 2028 presidential campaign.

In a simplistic way, the party's division is between its centrist, more moderate wing, and its more left-wing group.

But operators and analysts say there is also a divide between institutionalists and those who want to completely subvert the existing institution. And both sides believe they have a better reading of what voters really want.

Usamah Andrabi, of the prominent left-wing group Democrats for Justice, blames the Democratic establishment for electing a Republican Congress and president.

"So I think the people who brought us into this chaos simply won't be the ones who get us out of it," according to Andrabi.

"The cost of living crisis... is immense and will not be resolved with marginal adjustments." He argues that it will be resolved with policies such as universal health care and child care and redistribution of money, reducing the Pentagon's budget to put an end to what he calls "endless wars."

His organization was created in 2017 to recruit and support members of Congress who became known as "the Squad," the leftmost wing of the House of Representatives, which includes members such as Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.

Health care will be one of the main arenas where this fight is likely to be fought, according to Carrie Dann, editor of the nonpartisan newsletter The Cook Political Report, which forecasts the competitiveness of the campaigns.

"There's a lot of willingness, at least, for more transparency, more understanding of why health care costs are so high," Dann explains.

"All you need to do is make one false step, break a leg, and a huge proportion of Americans will have their lives turned upside down due to the current shape of the health care system."

Several Democratic candidates in this election have floated ideas to reduce out-of-pocket costs for people who already have health insurance. Bearing additional costs on top of regular insurance payments is common in the U.S. healthcare system.

But there is another wing of the party that is tired of gradual changes and wants a national public health system with free services: Medicare for All.

Recent polls indicate that the majority of Democrats are in favor of this type of healthcare system, which is opposed by most Republicans. But some Democrats say there are nuances to be discussed.

“People want to have universal health care and also be able to keep their health insurance,” says Neera Tanden, a former domestic policy adviser to Joe Biden and now CEO of the liberal think tank Center for American Progress.

Rank-and-file Democrats acknowledge that many consider health care to be a right, but they insist that others are firmly opposed to a program that is entirely government-run. They fear that standards of care are lower and defend the option of maintaining their private health insurance.

Healthcare costs have risen across the entire service chain. Health insurance, out-of-pocket spending, hospital expenses and prescription drug prices have soared in recent years, above inflation rates.

With medical expenses rising, research indicates that the idea of ​​universal healthcare is not as extravagant in the United States as it was in the past. And this campaign shows that the open defense of this system, by politicians, has become much less of a taboo.

In Georgia, Tamara and James Stevens are in agreement on this issue. Both want universal public healthcare.

But their main disagreement is regarding Israel. Tamara calls herself a Zionist.

“My kids go crazy with me when I say that,” she says. And they are far from the only Democrats discussing this issue.

For Dann of The Cook Political Report, one of the biggest lessons of this election cycle is that Democratic voters are not just looking for candidates who can challenge Trump. They want candidates willing to stand up to the establishment.

She points to the important swing state of Michigan. In the local primaries, Abdul El-Sayed (a staunch critic of Israel and its actions in the Gaza Strip) overcame the objections of the Democratic establishment.

"I think one reason was because he wasn't just talking about taking on Donald Trump, but the Democratic establishment... the Washington establishment as a whole," she explains.

And part of this stance against the establishment is related to American support for Israel.

The question of Israel

People who left the party in 2024 because they believed Biden was too supportive of Israel's actions in Gaza are now returning, encouraged by El-Sayed's firm tone.

“My red line has been Gaza,” says Michigan-based Arab-American activist Samraa Luqman. She voted for Trump in the last presidential election, having felt betrayed by the Democrats that year.

"2023 and 2024 have really taught this community a lesson that we no longer want to sit on the fence on this issue. It's Gaza or nothing," she declared.

"If you're not good about Gaza, Israel and Palestine, we don't need you. We don't need you in power and we don't need to vote for you, no matter what your party affiliation."

But just as he energized some voters, El-Sayed also alienated others, particularly those who consider support for Israel to be related to the safety of Jews in the United States.

These voters believe that anti-Semitism in their party has increased following the deadly Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023.

Zach Nessel is one of those Democrats. He increasingly fears that he could end up being left politically without a party.

"We have people who think that Zionists should have no place in our party, that they should be expelled," he says. "And since I'm a proud Zionist, I don't want to be kicked out of the Democratic coalition over this single Middle East issue."

Support for Israel has become a litmus test in some Democratic primary elections in this election campaign. The issue has fueled resistance to the former and influential lobby group the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac).

Ideological test

But Dann says that Israel is not the only litmus test. El-Sayed's campaign, too.

"Abdul El-Sayed's theory is that he can run as a staunch progressive in a swing state and win, because progressive ideas are not only popular when communicated correctly, but they also excite voters who are not necessarily a normal part of the political process, particularly young people," she explains.

If El-Sayed wins, left-wing candidates will look to him as a role model, according to Dann. And if he loses, Democrats on the more centrist wing of the party will believe this is proof that left-wing ideas are beyond the reach of ordinary voters.

But there are others who believe Michigan should not be the focus, like Jim Kessler of the centrist-leaning Third Way think tank.

He indicates that if Democrats take control of the Senate, it will be due to more centrist candidates: Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Mary Peltola in Alaska, James Talarico in Texas, Josh Turek in Iowa and Adam Hamilton in Kansas.

These, for him, are the candidates who are increasing the Democrats' possibilities in this election.

“Therefore, the bigger the Democratic victory, the more likely it seems to be the election of centrist Democrats, not DSA candidates,” according to Kessler.

DSA-backed candidates have made gains during the primaries this election cycle, but their ideas are still controversial to many people.

"I don't think... that the vast majority of working-class people in America are some kind of mini-socialists," says Tanden. He points to reports that the majority of DSA supporters are college-educated voters.

“Working class people are quite moderate on issues like crime and immigration,” she highlights.

Still, if Democrats win a majority in the US Congress, their leaders will need to face a group of Democrats in which there will likely be an increase in the most vocal voices on the left.

"The Democrats' biggest challenge is figuring out how to actually manage the economy better and reduce the cost of living, as they have said many times, loudly and clearly, that is what they will do," says Teixeira.

Enjoy the moment

Most likely, people will start thinking seriously about the next presidential candidate the day after the midterms.

But whose moment is it, really? Left or center?

"I think that, after the election, we will see a lot of fighting between factions claiming credit", says Teixeira. “And this will naturally increase the race for the 2028 presidential nomination.”

Back in Georgia, Tamara and James Stevens may disagree on some points, but they both want Democrats to have a big win on Tuesday.

"I'm very pragmatic when it comes to progressive politics," says James Stevens. He wants to make it clear that he does not agree with all the points defended by DSA members.

Therefore, a large part of the campaign for these midterm elections came down to the quality of the candidates. Not just the message, but the messenger.

So I asked the mother and son who their "ideal" Democrat would be.

Tamara instantly responded to Jon Ossoff, the Democratic senator running for re-election in Georgia.

And they both agree. They both really like their senator.

Many consider Ossoff a rising star in his party. The Cook Political Report rates his seat as "likely Democratic" in the election, which analysts call an impressive achievement in a swing state that voted for Trump in 2024.

"He knows how to talk to moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats and