A 'demand decade' ahead for energy? BP, Baker Hughes CEOs weigh the investment outlook

Rising energy demand is creating new investment opportunities even as geopolitical risks and uncertain oil prices challenge the industry.

Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli is optimistic about the longer-term outlook, pointing to AI, population growth and developing nations as factors supporting continued energy demand growth.

"I think we have a 'demand decade' ahead of us," Simonelli told CNBC's Dan Murphy on "Access Middle East" at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi. "We're looking at very much seeing capital investments improve and increase over time," as growing consumption will require additional infrastructure to support demand.

However, turning that demand into profitability may be a challenge.

Markus Krebber, CEO of German energy company RWE, said AI and electrification were driving electricity demand, but geopolitical tensions, supply chain pressures and higher interest rates were complicating investment decisions.

"You have huge investment opportunity, but on the other hand, a very challenging investment environment," Krebber said during a separate ADIPEC discussion. On planned expansions in computing capacity and the power needed to support them, he said "it's going to come, but it probably comes slow."

The wide range of global energy demand forecasts is an important consideration in investment decisions, given that new oil and gas projects can take years to develop and remain in production for decades, BP CEO Meg O'Neill said at ADIPEC.

She also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding oil prices, saying that "we need to plan our business for a lower-price environment."

Industry activity

Industry activity is expected to rise by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027, according to Simonelli. The Middle East conflict has highlighted the need for more resilient energy infrastructure, including additional storage and pipelines, he said.

"If you look at the energy system, though, what it really means is it's going to have to be more resilient," Simonelli said. "That means more storage. It means more pipelines. It means eliminating choke points that exist today."

Schneider Electric CEO Olivier Blum noted that some projects in the Persian Gulf have slowed because of the Middle East conflict. However, "in the mid-term, I would say the opportunity for more infrastructure has even increased," he told CNBC.

The investment equation also depends on the supply outlook, of course.

Oil markets could face oversupply in 2027 and 2028, Richard Bronze, co-founder and head of geopolitics at energy consultancy Energy Aspects, told CNBC in a separate interview.

Supply-demand forecasts, including those from Energy Aspects, "project an oversupplied market 2027, 2028 — if we get Middle Eastern flows back to normal," Bronze said.