Shen Zhengnan’s poll analysis is only half of the calculation, the real variable in the election lies in the middle voters

◎ Taiwan Alfie

Dr. Shen Zhengnan recently analyzed the Taipei mayoral election polls and divided voters into "steel votes" and "iron votes." He also estimated based on the party's basic base that Shen Boyang is currently about ten percentage points behind Chiang Wanan. He believes that even if the "ocean current" does exist, it may just be the mobilization of the Green Camp stratosphere; if Shen Boyang wants to challenge Jiang Wanan, he must obtain the support of a large number of middle voters.

Shen Zhengnan recently analyzed Taipei mayoral election polls and divided voters into "steel votes" and "iron votes." (Extracted from Shen Zhengnan’s Facebook)

This judgment is half correct: Shen Boyang is indeed not the leader at present, and the DPP's basic base in Taipei City is not as good as the KMT. If we vote today, Jiang Wanan will certainly have an advantage.

Please read on...

The problem is that Shen Zhengnan calculated today's starting line, but almost regarded it as the end point of the election.

Polls can measure the present, but they cannot seal the future. The candidates have not yet been formally determined, the election campaign has not yet begun in full swing, and the movement of political opinions, personality, governance performance, emergencies, and central voters have not really happened yet. At this time, the results two years later are calculated according to the political party sector. On the surface, it is a precise analysis, but in fact it is just extending today's figures backward.

What is even more noteworthy is that the total sample of this poll is only 1,076 people, and the overall sampling error is about plus or minus three percentage points. If it is broken down into administrative districts, each district will have fewer samples, and the error will naturally be larger. Even the data from Da'an District are inconsistent with general political understanding. Shen Zhengnan himself admitted that it may be due to sampling error. In this case, how can we treat these figures as precise calculations and conclude who has lost by ten percentage points?

You can calculate the base, but you can't calculate why the voters have changed.

Shen Zhengnan's biggest blind spot is not that he is not good at mathematics, but that he only counts half of the election.

He calculated how many steel and iron votes the blue camp had, and how much the green camp’s basic base was, but he failed to calculate how many middle voters might be driven away by a single word from a politician; how many people’s judgments might be changed by a single governance error; how many people who did not originally support him might be gradually won over by a candidate’s narrative, personality, and long-term actions.

Wang Zhibing described voters with different stances as "cockroaches and rats." Ling Tao constantly questioned sampling when faced with unfavorable polls, and Weng Xiaoling's tough style in Congress. Wouldn't these affect the median voters? Don’t Jiang Wanan’s recent absurd and rigid governance performance, the Kuomintang’s line choice, and whether Shen Boyang can get out of the stratosphere need not be included in the calculation?

What really determines an election is often the part of the formula that is most difficult to quantify.

Shen Zhengnan mentioned Han Kuo-yu in 2018 and admitted that the reason why Hallyu was able to break through the political party sector was because it won a large number of middle voters. If Han Guoyu can do it, why does Shen Boyang's support necessarily only stay at the base of the DPP?

Ko Wenzhe was elected mayor of Taipei that year not because he had a traditional political party base, but because he attracted a large number of young and middle voters. Looking further forward, whether Chen Shui-bian is elected mayor or president of Taipei, it shows that elections are never just about the addition and subtraction of political party sectors; party fragmentation, the bailout effect, social atmosphere and voters' last-minute choices may all rewrite the results.

The Korean wave started by Han Kuo-yu (left) in 2018 and the election of Ko Wenzhe (right) as mayor of Taipei in 2014 were all due to attracting a large number of middle-of-the-road voters. (File photo)

If polls and the base can accurately predict everything, why vote in elections? Just commission a polling company to announce the elected candidate.

Opinion polls are the thermometer of elections, not the verdict of fate.

Only by admitting that you can lose can you have a chance to find a way to win.

I don't think Shen Boyang will definitely win. On the contrary, Taipei City has always been a difficult constituency. Chiang Wanan has the advantage of being an incumbent. If Shen Boyang runs on behalf of the DPP, he may indeed fail.

But "possible failure" and "Jiang Wanan must win" are completely different things.

With the mentality that you may lose, you can avoid being overwhelmed by the volume of Internet noise. If Shen Boyang regards "ocean current" as a guarantee of victory, he will only stay in the stratosphere and accept applause; if he knows that his basic base is insufficient, he must go into unfamiliar constituencies, listen to those who do not support him, and win over the middle voters vote by vote with his policies, personality and actions.

A sentence that Shen Boyang often talks about is:

"The shortest shortcut is to take the long way around."

The long road is not to rely on a few publicity campaigns or a few popular movies to create the illusion of victory; it is to be willing to spend time answering questions and correcting shortcomings, so that citizens who originally did not understand him or even opposed him will gradually believe that he is worthy of their trust.

Shen Zhengnan's analysis can tell Shen Boyang: It is still lagging behind and the road ahead is very difficult. This is a helpful reminder. But if today's polls are written directly into the verdict two years from now, then it is not analyzing the future, but projecting one's own political stance into the future.

Shen Zhengnan’s analysis can tell Shen Boyang (left): He is still lagging behind Jiang Wanan (right), and the road ahead is very difficult. This is a helpful reminder. (File photo, synthesized by this newspaper)

Real experts should use data to test their judgments; only self-righteous experts will decide the answer first and then ask numbers to prove their position.

The biggest variable in an election has never been the steel vote or the iron vote, but the middle voters who refuse to be put into the blue and green drawers and are still willing to make choices based on the performance of the candidates.

Shen Zhengnan calculated the basic market, but only half of it.

The most exciting part of the election, and the most likely to rewrite history, happens in the other half.

(The author is from the financial trust industry)