Israeli Army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said on Wednesday that the army had strengthened its forces “on all fronts,” warning of the increasing risk of escalation as the elections scheduled for later this month approached.
During a visit to the occupied West Bank, Zamir said that the possibility of incidents on Israel's borders has increased in light of the electoral atmosphere, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is engaged in a fierce competition to remain in power in the elections scheduled for October 27.
Zamir said, according to a statement issued by the Israeli army: “In light of the increasing warnings on all fronts and the sensitivity of this stage, the possibilities of escalation have increased.”
He added: “We have strengthened our forces in all regions.”
He pointed out that the army had raised its level of alert in preparation for “scenarios in which attempts might be made to surprise us.”
In recent days, Israel has commemorated the third anniversary of the surprise attack launched by Hamas on October 7.
Israel responded to the attack by launching a war that turned most parts of the Gaza Strip into rubble and resulted in the deaths of more than 74,000 people, according to the Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip, which is under the authority of Hamas, figures that the United Nations considers reliable.
Zamir stressed the need for “vigilance,” stressing that the army “is on high alert to launch large-scale offensive operations against any party trying to harm Israeli civilians.”
In the Gaza Strip, a year after the US-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, the Israeli army currently controls more than 60 percent of the devastated Strip, while its strikes continue.
As for Lebanon, violence in the south has decreased since a memorandum of understanding was reached between Iran and the United States in June, and then Lebanon and Israel signed a framework agreement stipulating the disarmament of Hezbollah and a gradual Israeli withdrawal, but the implementation of the agreement faltered.
Israel was also subjected to attacks from Iran during the war in the Middle East that broke out in February, following American-Israeli strikes on Iran.
At a time when Israel is engaged in intense elections on October 27, the main topic of which is changing the far-right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, frantic attempts are being made, spending tens of millions of dollars, to raise the voter turnout.
This money is donated not only by Israeli Jews, but also by Jews from abroad, especially the United States. Several civil societies have undertaken the task of extensive media campaigns, especially among social segments known for their low voting rates.
These bodies have decided to seek to raise the general voting percentage from approximately 71 percent in the year 2022, to 78 percent in the elections that will be held approximately two weeks later, considering that raising it to this percentage in towns known for tendencies opposed to the current government is a guarantee of its overthrow and the formation of an alternative government with a majority of 63 seats or more.
Netanyahu, who leads Likud, and his allies from the extreme Israeli right-wing parties, are competing with opposition forces, most notably the former army chief of staff, Gadi Eisenkot, and his Yashar party, to win more than 60 seats to achieve a majority in Parliament (the Knesset), which consists of 120 seats in total.
The results of the 2022 Israeli elections showed that right-wing parties, especially Likud, worked at the time to raise the voting percentage in towns considered right-wing, such as settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, and in rural towns where Eastern Jews live, as well as in towns that include Haredi (religiously observant) Jews.
The voting percentage in these towns rose clearly and systematically by 4-6 percent, and because the voting percentage in the other towns was low, the Likud, along with the extreme right and the Haredim, won a majority of 64 seats (it rose to 68 seats, after Gideon Sa’ar defected from Benny Gantz and joined the Likud Party with three other representatives).
What happened in the previous elections?
According to the Central Election Commission’s record, the voting rate in 2022 among settlers reached 86 percent, knowing that they give 45 percent of their votes to the extreme right-wing parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir. They also gave Likud 22 percent, 13 percent to the Haredi parties, and 20 percent to the rest of the Zionist parties.
The voting rate in the towns where the Haredim live reached 92 percent, noting that 86 percent of their votes go to the Haredi parties.
Even among traditional Jews; That is, for non-religious religious people, the voting percentage was high and exceeded the general average (76 percent). But towns such as Tel Aviv, Raanana, Ramat Gan, Haifa, Herzliya and others, which are considered liberal and give the majority of their votes to liberals and the left, had a vote percentage lower than the general average, and did not exceed 66 percent.
The same thing prevailed more sharply in Arab towns, where the voting percentage reached less than 54 percent (although it rose from the 2021 elections, in which it reached 49 percent). Arabs, as is known, give 85 percent of their votes to Arab parties.
According to officials in the political arena, the parties opposing Netanyahu, who are supposed to be more concerned than others with overthrowing his government, are running a massive campaign to raise the voter turnout, but the main activity in performing this task is carried out by these associations. It focuses on first-time voters, who number 670,000 new voters, including 20 percent Arabs and 20 percent Haredi Jews.
They are also focusing on bringing tens of thousands of voters who have given up on changing the government and wars and have chosen to live outside the country. An air train has been organized for them to come to the country for the purpose of voting, with flights funded by donors. Because most of them vote for liberal parties, the government tried to abort the trips and consider them illegal. They found several ways to circumvent the legal procedures.
Risk of forgery
On the other hand, Haaretz newspaper revealed a new angle related to the danger of election fraud carried out by right-wing activists, exploiting a loophole in the law related to what is known as double envelopes. The law allows every citizen who is forced to live outside his area of residence to vote in his new place of residence. In this case, voting is done with two envelopes, one of which is closed and the second with his name and ID number written on it.
This vote includes soldiers in the army, policemen and other security agencies, as well as patients in hospitals, detainees in prisons, and the disabled who have difficulty moving around. It is forbidden to publish their number, under the pretext of not revealing the number of recruits for security missions. Their votes are counted within 72 hours, after the ballot boxes close. The counting is taking place at the Knesset headquarters.
Although the number is unknown, estimates indicate that they constitute 9.6 percent of voters (11-12 seats). According to an investigation conducted by the Israel Democracy Forum, their percentage was 4.3 percent of voters in 1999, and their percentage has been rising since then.
It is noted that this increase occurs mainly in ultra-Orthodox towns, settlements, and the countryside. Therefore, the assessment is that this type of envelope is in the interest of right-wing parties. Because no one sought to change the law, the opposition parties decided to cooperate to tighten control over it.
On the other hand, the right claims that there is voting fraud in Arab towns, especially in the Negev, where more than a third of the population lives in unrecognized towns and where there are no organized ballot boxes. The right seeks to place its representatives in the ballot boxes in Arab society. They have tried to install cameras as well, but so far they have been met with opposition.
