Energy market developments: TASI index rises and Egyptian denial of an increase in fuel prices

The Saudi main market index (TASI) ended Sunday trading up by 1.09 percent, closing at 10,505.84 points, in the first trading session after Saudi Tadawul began implementing the updated market orders mechanism.

“Raydan” stock topped the highest gain, after rising by 9.97 percent to 18.97 riyals, followed by “Abu Moati” stock, rising by 7.69 percent to 32.78 riyals, then “Armah” stock by 6.69 percent to 65.35 riyals.

On the other hand, “Enaya” stock led the decliners, falling by 3.94 percent to 10.24 riyals, followed by “Lubref” stock, down by 2.58 percent to 124.70 riyals, then “MIS” stock by 1.80 percent to 284 riyals.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources in Egypt renewed its denial of raising the prices of petroleum products, with expectations of an expected increase in prices as a result of the rise in global oil prices.

The Ministry of Petroleum said, in a statement on Sunday, that “work continues at current prices without any change,” stressing that the committee formed to follow up on the automatic pricing mechanism for petroleum products has not yet been held, and has not issued any decision or recommendation regarding moving the prices of petroleum products.

The Ministry promised that the failure of the committee to convene categorically denies the validity of the new prices being circulated or the increase rates being published on social media sites, stressing that the prices being circulated and promoted as new prices that will be applied are “incorrect and not based on any official decision.”

She stressed that any developments or decisions related to the prices of petroleum products will be officially announced through the ministry and the concerned authorities.

From time to time, new fuel prices are circulated in Egypt through social networking sites, especially with international economic institutions’ expectations of an expected increase last month.

The Finch Solutions Foundation, which is concerned with economic research, had expected an increase in fuel prices in Egypt during last September, and confirmed at that time that “the Egyptian government seeks to achieve the financial goals of the general budget that began last July, which means it will resort to reducing spending on fuel.”

The Egyptian government’s latest denial came after the head of the General Division for Petroleum Products, Hassan Nasr, confirmed that “a rise in fuel prices has become expected in light of the changes taking place in global energy markets,” noting in statements to a local channel, on Saturday evening, that “the rise in the cost of crude directly reflects on the Egyptian market, which depends for part of its needs on imports.”

He expected the “Automatic Pricing Committee” to be held during this October to take a decision on the price levels of petroleum products, and that if the decision to increase prices is made, it may range between 10 percent and 15 percent, considering that increasing prices has become “a matter of time.”

On September 24, the Ministry of Petroleum also denied the validity of the news being circulated about raising fuel prices, and at that time called for “not to be led by undocumented information circulated on social media platforms.” The denial has been repeated more than once since then by official spokespersons for the Ministry.

Early last July, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced the return of the work of the “Automatic Pricing of Petroleum Products” Committee, starting from the first quarter of the fiscal year 2026-2027, with the aim of linking fuel prices to economic variables and global energy prices.

The budget for the new fiscal year 2026-2027 reduced the target of subsidizing petroleum products by about 79 percent, to reach 15.8 billion pounds, compared to subsidizing 75 billion pounds for the current fiscal year.

Expectations of an increase in the prices of petroleum products in Egypt come at a time when global oil markets are witnessing sharp movements, as data from the Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum showed that the price of Brent crude reached about $101.65 per barrel on October 2, compared to the Egyptian budget price of $75 per barrel.

The Ministry of Petroleum denied, according to what was stated in its statement issued on Sunday, what was circulated regarding the existence of a shortage of butane gas cylinders in some governorates, stressing that the butane supply system operates normally and regularly, and that refineries produce and pump the butane product normally, and the operations of transporting and filling it in bottling plants are organized.

The Ministry confirmed that bulk gas reserves allocated for filling butane cylinders are available within the filling factories, which are operating at full capacity and according to market needs, and there are no indications of a shortage in the available quantities.

The current official prices, according to Ministry of Petroleum data, are 20.75 pounds per liter of 80 gasoline, about 22.25 pounds for 92 gasoline, and about 24 pounds for 95 gasoline, while the price of a liter of diesel is 20.50 pounds (the dollar is equivalent to approximately 52 pounds in Egyptian banks).

The Joint Ministerial Committee for Production Monitoring in the OPEC+ alliance expressed its concern about attacks targeting energy infrastructure, noting that restarting affected energy assets at full operational capacity is a costly and time-consuming process, which affects the availability of supplies in general.

Accordingly, the Committee emphasized that any practices that undermine the security of energy supplies - whether through attacks on infrastructure or disruption of international sea lanes - lead to increased market volatility, and weaken the collective efforts made within the framework of the “Declaration of Cooperation” to support market stability, in a way that serves the interests of producers, consumers and the global economy.

The Joint Ministerial Committee for Production Control (JMMC), which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Algeria and Venezuela, held its sixty-eighth meeting via video communication technology, on Sunday, after the G7 meeting in the coalition.

According to a press release, the committee reviewed the current market conditions and emphasized the essential role of the “Declaration of Cooperation” in supporting the stability of global energy markets. In this context, the Committee stressed the critical importance of protecting international sea lanes, to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy supplies.

The committee reviewed crude oil production data for the months of July and August 2026, and recorded the level of general compliance by OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries participating in the “Declaration of Cooperation.”

The committee also renewed its emphasis on continuing to monitor compliance with the production adjustments that were decided to be adopted during the thirty-eighth ministerial meeting of OPEC countries and non-member countries of the organization, which was held on December 5, 2024.

The statement explained that the committee “will continue to closely monitor market conditions, while retaining the authority to hold additional meetings or call for a ministerial meeting of OPEC countries and non-member countries of the organization.”

The next meeting of the committee (the sixty-ninth meeting) is scheduled to be held on November 29.