Analysis by CNN's Tim Lister
(CNN) - Saudi Arabia spends tens of billions of dollars annually on defense, but it faces difficulty protecting vital facilities - such as airports, oil refineries and pipelines - from missiles and drones launched by Houthi militants from Yemen.
Despite obtaining highly advanced weapons systems from the United States and Europe and possessing multi-layered air defense systems, the Kingdom witnessed bloody attacks targeting the main airport serving the capital, Riyadh, during the past week.
Saudi Arabia spent $83 billion on defense last year - according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute - which placed it firmly on the list of the top ten military spending countries in the world. Its purchases included American fighter aircraft, Patriot and THAAD air defense systems, in addition to a group of advanced weapons from France and the United Kingdom.
But Saudi Arabia has a lot to defend; It is a country whose area is about one-fifth the size of the United States, and it faces threats from three sides.
From the east, Iran launched about 1,000 missiles and drones towards Saudi targets during the height of the conflict this year.
From the north, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq sent drones to attack the vital oil pipeline (east-west) linking the east of the kingdom to its west.
From the south, Houthi rebels - also backed by Iran - fire missiles into the kingdom from bunkers and mobile launch pads in the mountains of Yemen.
Defending Saudi Arabia means protecting a wide network of targets, not just protecting Riyadh or a single oil refinery. Defense systems must detect incoming threats, determine which ones need to be intercepted, and warn civilians, all within moments. This is according to “Vision2030.ai”, an independent website that analyzes the economic transformation in the Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia succeeds in intercepting many missiles and drones launched by the Houthis, but some of them are able to penetrate these defenses and reach their targets.
The Ministry of Defense faces difficult choices regarding the distribution of current systems, given the presence of a large number of facilities vulnerable to attack, according to a Saudi source.
Houthi capabilities
The Houthis have learned to combine ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range drones to overwhelm and overwhelm Saudi defenses.
This method is similar to the Russian strategy; Moscow has been using large numbers of drones in conjunction with cruise and ballistic missiles in intense attacks against Ukraine.
Cruise missiles fly at low altitudes, making them difficult to monitor and track, and the Houthis have also introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles that they claim have the ability to maneuver.
No single air defense system can guarantee the interception of every incoming threat, but the Houthis did not do this alone.
Eight years ago, United Nations experts identified “remnants of missiles, related military equipment, and military drones of Iranian origin that were brought into Yemen” despite the international arms embargo.
The same committee also stated two years ago that “the scale, nature, and scope of transfers of various military materials and technology provided to the Houthis from external sources - including financial support and training of fighters - is unprecedented.”
Experts point out that the latest Houthi missiles, such as the "Hatem-2" and "Palestine-2", are very similar in design to Iranian weapons, and are characterized by speed and accuracy.
Last year, a missile fired by the Houthis managed to penetrate Israel's highly efficient air defenses and landed near Ben Gurion Airport.
“It was very accurate,” analyst Amir Bar Shalom told CNN at the time. “To achieve high accuracy when launching from a distance of 2,000 kilometers is impressive.”
The Houthis have also modified Iranian air defense weapons to target aircraft and cruise missiles, according to Brigadier General Majid al-Nuzaili, a spokesman for the Yemeni government forces, who said last month: “These missiles move for a period of up to 25 minutes per missile, and operate using a thermal tracking system.”
Will they listen to Tehran?
The Houthis have long been part of Iran's "axis of resistance." While the capabilities of other allied groups - such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and militias in Iraq - have significantly declined, the Houthis have grown stronger and more solid. They continue to maintain a strong relationship with Tehran, and sent a delegation to participate in the funeral of former guide Ali Khamenei. But they also have their own agenda.
The conflict with Saudi Arabia, which lasted for seven years between 2015 and 2022, caused enormous suffering in areas under the control of the Houthis in Yemen, and an economic blockade and restrictions on transport movement have continued since then.
Ultimately, this prompted the Houthis to announce their intention - in July - to attack Saudi ships in the Red Sea - and shortly thereafter, they began a campaign of missile strikes, initially targeting an Aramco oil refinery on the Red Sea coast and Saudi air bases.
Smoke rises from the Saudi Aramco refinery site after alleged Houthi attacks, south of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in this satellite image taken on October 3.
The Houthis are demanding an end to Saudi air strikes to support government forces in Yemen, in addition to billions of dollars in compensation from Saudi Arabia.
Whether in good faith or not, Iran has offered to mediate between Riyadh and the Houthis.
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Tehran is ready to provide “any necessary assistance to facilitate the start of talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen,” in reference to the Houthis.
A member of the Houthi political bureau, Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, claimed on Monday that Riyadh had accepted mediation, but the group rejected truce proposals for two weeks and a month.
He said: "The battle this time is not like the previous one. The arena is no longer the same, and every day that passes in this battle will increase its expansion and exacerbate its losses, and the possible settlement today may become difficult or impossible tomorrow."
The Kingdom faces “difficult” choices
Saudi Arabia tried to project an image of “business as usual” even as the conflict with the Houthis escalated.
The Civil Defense Authority stopped issuing public phone alerts about incoming missiles and drones last week, before the series of bloody attacks on Riyadh airport.
The alerts have since resumed, according to a number of Riyadh residents who spoke to CNN, and Saudi authorities say they intercepted 3 ballistic missiles on Monday.
A foreign resident in Riyadh told CNN that their children are being educated at home this week.
On Saturday, one resident expressed his dissatisfaction with the lack of automatic alerts for incoming missiles during the previous days, but he said that the phone alerts were back to working effectively by Monday. He also expressed his dissatisfaction with the silence of the Saudi authorities over the weekend regarding the attacks on Riyadh airport.
CNN asked the Saudi authorities for clarification regarding the absence of alerts.
In the future, the Kingdom faces difficult choices. A settlement with the Houthis after the killing of more than a dozen civilians in airport attacks would be completely unacceptable.
Escalation, through more intense airstrikes, would increase the risk of further missile attacks that would undermine Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's goal of making the kingdom a world-class destination for investment, technology and tourism.
The risks are not limited to the oil sector only, but also include data centers, water desalination plants, and airports, which are a fundamental pillar of the Kingdom’s technological ambitions, its water supply, and its tourism economy.
The crown prince's most prominent investment event in Riyadh later this month will highlight his pitch to international investors, but major companies this week refrained from attending the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh.
It seems very unlikely that the Houthis will be defeated through a ground attack involving Yemeni government forces. The Houthis are well entrenched, experienced in combat, and fully familiar with the mountainous terrain, and they inflicted heavy losses on government forces over the past month.
Last year, the United States spent more than $1 billion on a 7-week air strike campaign against the Houthis.
The Houthis eventually agreed not to attack American ships in the Red Sea, but they remained firmly positioned, and in the process shot down a number of highly sophisticated American drones.
The American or Israeli strikes did not result in the elimination of members of the Houthi leadership, even if leaders and technical experts were killed.
Indeed, the Houthis, who may number up to 350,000 fighters, are on the offensive, as they have besieged the city of Taiz, Yemen's third largest city and its vital logistical center, which is under government control, according to the Institute for War Studies, Monday.
Saudi Arabia is seeking support
Saudi Arabia is seeking to mobilize an international coalition against the Houthis, and regional allies have offered to help by providing defense systems; Pakistan sent thousands of soldiers to help defend the Kingdom, while Egypt offered to provide any support requested from it. Saudi Arabia may be able to obtain more air defense systems from Europe and the United States, after depleting the shipments that were supplied at the beginning of the conflict with Iran.
However, the United States itself suffers from a shortage of these systems. A report issued by the Inspector General of the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) indicated that the campaign against Iran “led to a shortage in strategic stocks and revealed bottlenecks in the munitions resupply industrial base.”
With the midterm elections approaching in 3 weeks, US President Donald Trump is wary of getting involved in a new conflict in the Middle East. He did not commit to launching direct American strikes against the Houthis, but at the same time he did not rule out this option.
“The United States’ reluctance to intervene reinforces the impression that it has abandoned a partner at a time when it most needs it,” says Michael Ratney of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
In an article he wrote before the attacks that targeted the airport, Ratney, a former American ambassador to Riyadh, added: “The Kingdom is under attack, and politically, it must respond. But in the end, we should expect a return to diplomacy, which may be incomplete and unsatisfactory, but it contributes to reducing the intensity of the conflict.”
This may lead to the Houthis remaining in their positions and strengthening their position inside Yemen.
