
本文為《自由時報》「自由開講」專欄文章,作者認為國際社會評估台海風險受控,並非因威權體制改變想法,而是因台灣多年強化防衛與國際連結,讓對方明白輕舉妄動必須付出代價。作者呼籲政府讓國防建構更透明,民眾保持清醒共識,強調和平來自自我防衛能力而非對方善念,唯有站穩才能保有選擇自由,守護平凡日常。
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文章提到國軍首批F-16V BLK70戰機日前返台,中國外交部記者會上外媒詢問犯臺風險評估、F-16V戰機接裝以及海外涉嫌監控臺灣政治人物家屬事件。中共發言人將臺灣安全處境稱為「內部事務」,反對臺灣強化防衛能力,對海外滲透疑雲輕描淡寫帶過。中國海警4艦日前侵擾巴士海峽,北上逼近東海岸。
這幾天走在路上,微涼的秋風吹過,街坊鄰居照常互相問候,大家都在為了生活裡的柴米油煙忙碌著。這種能夠安心計畫明天、和家人好好吃頓晚飯的平凡日子,是我們在臺灣最珍惜的幸福。只是,偶爾看到國際新聞裡不斷討論著「臺海何時會有衝突」、甚至精算著哪一年的風險高低時,心裡難免會泛起一絲波瀾,也讓我們更想弄清楚,這份得來不易的安穩,究竟是靠著什麼在支撐。
台灣強化防衛能力,國軍首批F-16V BLK70戰機日前返台。(資料照)在日前中國外交部的記者會上,外媒接連拋出了不少直接的提問,從國際評估犯臺風險是否降低、我國接裝新式F-16V戰機,甚至問到了在海外涉嫌監控臺灣政治人物家屬的事件。面對這些實質的安全疑慮,中共發言人的回應依舊是一貫的說法,一邊把臺灣的安全處境推為「內部事務」,另一邊又強烈反對臺灣強化防衛能力,甚至對海外的滲透疑雲輕描淡寫地帶過。
聽著那些制式的話語,我們其實更該看清其中的矛盾。國際社會之所以認為風險在現階段受到控制,絕對不是因為威權體制突然改變了想法、願意釋出善意,而是因為臺灣這些年在防衛整備與國際連結上的努力,讓對方明白任何輕舉妄動都必須付出難以承受的代價。中共一邊指責我們強化防衛是挑釁,另一手卻從未停止在周邊海空域施壓。如果我們把外界評估的「風險降低」,誤以為是可以放鬆心防的保證,甚至質疑起自己強化防禦的必要性,那就正好落入了對方希望我們自我繳械的陷阱。
面對這樣複雜的情勢,我們不需要自己嚇自己,但也不能抱持天真的期待。對政府來說,必須把每一步國防建構與法制把關做得更透明、更踏實,讓世界看見我們維護自由的堅定意志;而對我們每一個人而言,最珍貴的莫過於這份清醒的共識。和平從來不是寄託在對方的善念上,而是來自我們願意守護彼此的決心與力量。唯有自己站得穩、具備實質的自我防衛能力,我們才能在國際風浪中保有選擇的自由,讓身邊這份平凡而溫暖的日常,能夠一直平平安安地過下去。
中共從未停止在周邊海空域施壓,中國海警4艦日前侵擾巴士海峽,北上逼近東海岸。圖為中國海警岱山艦。(資料照,取自MarineTraffic) (作者為教職)
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
中共將繼續在臺灣周邊海空域進行軍事施壓行動。
Likely · Within weeks

On the 6th, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan, accompanied by blue committee member Wang Hongwei, passed by a dumpling shop in Another Village that supports Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Boyang of the Democratic Progressive Party. A large number of supporters surrounded him outside and shouted slogans. The shop owner expressed fear. Xie Jinhe, chairman of Caixin Media Group, claimed to be an eyewitness, but Wang Hongwei choked and asked for evidence. Internet celebrity "Four Forked Cat" Liu Yujin posted a screenshot of the live broadcast, questioning Xu Kaijie, director of Wang Hongwei's service office, for deliberately pointing the loudspeaker at the entrance and exit of the dumpling shop, and asked Wang Hongwei whether he gave the order.

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Internet celebrity Four Forked Cat posted a post on Facebook questioning Wang Hongwei. When Jiang Wanan went to the Liaoning Night Market to ask for votes on the 6th, Xu Kaijie, director of the Zhongshan Service Office, pointed the loudspeaker at the entrance and exit of the "Ocean Current" dumpling shop and asked whether this was a personal act or Wang Hongwei's order. Xie Jinhe, chairman of Caixin Media, had witnessed the incident and exposed the grudges. Wang Hongwei asked Xie Jinhe to provide evidence late at night on the 8th.

The Philippines will host an important summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and U.S. President Trump is expected to attend. The Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a rare tough statement on the 8th, requiring its officials and military to maintain a "unified tone" in their statements against China to avoid undermining the country's diplomatic mediation. The statement emphasized that international relations are led by civilian governments and that the results of the 2016 South China Sea international arbitration were based on international legal procedures rather than social media spats.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog formally gave opposition politician Gadi Eisenkot the first chance to form the next government on Sunday evening, marking a significant step in the former military chief’s effort to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after elections in a deeply divided country still scarred by the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attacks and ensuing multifront wars.