The Lebanese team supporting the “framework agreement” with Israel attaches special importance to the upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on Monday, in Washington, as it constitutes an essential stop for exploring the American position a month before the Knesset elections in Israel.
The meeting comes in light of the rising level of Lebanese fears about the possibility of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expanding the security zone in southern Lebanon, during the period that separates him from its appointment, by targeting the highlands located between Iqlim al-Tuffah and Jabal al-Rayhan, in the event that he becomes certain that he needs to expand it to ensure his return to the presidency of the government.
These Lebanese fears remain more legitimate than ever, if Salam confirms that there is an intention by the American administration to postpone the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, under American auspices, until after the elections in Israel. This coincides with what the Israeli army announced about its targeting of the town of Sajad and its destruction of a Hezbollah warehouse in which various combat means were stored, in light of what the Israeli Channel 12 reported about the army’s completion of the destruction of the party’s military infrastructure in the area located, within the “yellow line,” south of the Litani River, and its readiness now to move to a new phase of fighting.
Monday's meeting between Salam and Rubio comes to explore the reality of the American position in the event that the eighth round of negotiations is postponed until after the elections in Israel, contrary to what Lebanon has repeatedly been informed that Washington is determined to continue negotiations at the beginning of next October. On the other hand, its ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, who is currently in Washington, expected the tour to be postponed to a later date, without setting any new date.
If it is confirmed that Washington supports postponing the negotiations, Lebanon, as a ministerial source told Asharq Al-Awsat, will enter a political phase dominated by wasting time at the lowest security cost. This is what is supposed to be at the forefront of the Salam-Rubio meeting, in addition to knowing whether the American administration will intervene to pressure Israel to establish the ceasefire, ensuring that it is included in the cessation of hostilities, especially since Hezbollah is still committed, to date, not to respond to Israel’s violations and attacks, even if it threatens not to return to the stage before last March 2.
The ministerial source asked: How will Rubio act, and what will he say to Salam to reassure him, especially with regard to pressuring Israel to prevent it from expanding the security zone, instead of asking it to expand the “experimental zone” to include occupied cities and towns, and resolving the controversy surrounding the formation of a “verification mechanism” for the deployment of the Lebanese army there and ensuring that it is free of “Hezbollah” weapons and fighters? The meeting is also supposed to discuss the alternative that will succeed the International Emergency Forces (UNIFIL) immediately after the end of its mandate, to support the Lebanese army in its deployment south of the Litani, at the end of this year.
The Lebanese-American consensus on the alternative coincides this time with Salam’s confirmation, in his speech before the United Nations, of Lebanon’s adherence to the “Armistice Agreement” and “Resolution 1701,” even though they were not included in the core of the “Framework Agreement.” This prompted supporters and opponents of the agreement to wonder how it would be implemented, about the alternative force that would be tasked, on behalf of UNIFIL, with implementing it, and about Washington’s position on it, especially since its cancellation cannot be done with the stroke of a pen, but rather requires the issuance of an alternative resolution by the UN Security Council that ends its effects on the ground.
Returning to the resumption of negotiations, a ministerial source confirmed that Salam will bring certain news about its fate to Beirut, despite the fact that Lebanon has not yet been informed from Washington of the date of the eighth round in Rome nor of the date of the meeting of the two delegations at the military level in Florida, as is reported from time to time.
He said that Lebanon is in dire need of achieving progress in the negotiations, enabling it to strengthen its position in the face of Hezbollah and drop the pretexts it clings to to keep its weapons and refuse to confine them to the hands of the state. This is what concerns the Lebanese and raises their concerns, in the event that Netanyahu leans towards military escalation by targeting the heights controlled by Hezbollah, which are located between Iqlim al-Tuffah and Jabal al-Rayhan. On the other hand, the question remains: Does his threat fall within the framework of pressure to make voters in Israel feel that they need him to return to the presidency of the government, in a way that reassures the settlers in northern occupied Palestine that they are safe, especially after his army confirmed that it had destroyed Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the Yellow Line that it occupies?
The source pointed out that Salam is seeking to obtain from Rubio guarantees in the event that the negotiations are transferred that the Israeli army, at the request of Netanyahu, will not expand the security zone, believing that it is imposing a new map as a fait accompli after its control of the “Ali al-Tahir” hills, and before the elections are held, in order to include it as a basic item on the agenda of the negotiations, in the event that it is decided to resume it later after confirming its transfer.
He said that Lebanon can no longer bear to keep the negotiations stuck and suspended until after elections are held in Israel and a new government is formed.
He stressed that the mere agreement of Washington to freeze it would open the door to ensuring that the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel does not ignite if it insists on expanding the security zone by annexing the heights of Iqlim al-Tuffah and Jabal al-Rayhan to it. Because by expanding it, the party will be forced to put all its weight into defending it, as it is a battle for existence and constitutes an important strategic location for it, and the mere fact that Israel controls it means, from its point of view, that it has abandoned its last lines of defense against Israel.
The question remains: Will Israeli pressure continue by expanding the security zone, as part of pressure on the state to hand over these heights, similar to what Netanyahu did when he was forced to control the “Ali al-Taher” hills after Hezbollah refused to give them up to the army?
Accordingly, will the Rubio-Salam meeting achieve the desired results, allowing the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, who is supervising the negotiations, to build, in cooperation with the government, on what has been achieved? Or will the negotiations be postponed until after the Israeli elections, which will keep attention focused on the Washington meeting, perhaps paving the way for the completion of the implementation of the “Framework Agreement”?
After fleeing during the war, a large portion of Khartoum’s population returned to it, hoping to restore their lives, but they were faced with the choice of leaving again or remaining reluctantly, in light of its lack of basic necessities of life, despite the passage of months since its return to the custody of the army.
About 4 million people left the capital after the outbreak of war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces in April 2023. It is estimated that 2.7 million people returned after the army retook the city last year, according to Agence France-Presse.
But for many, the joy of return faded in the face of the difficult living reality.
Among them is businessman Imad Khaled Ahmed (43 years old), whose family returned from Cairo a month ago, but is preparing to return them again to the Egyptian capital.
He explains: “I am not saying that I regret it, but the decision to return the family was a mistake.” Government officials who were asked to return to Khartoum told Agence France-Presse that they also intended to keep their families abroad.
The scars of war remain fresh in Khartoum. The Shambat Bridge, which was a vital artery between the two parts of the city, part of it is still missing since it was subjected to an air strike. In the center of the capital, there are abandoned cars whose tires were stolen and whose bodies were riddled with bullets.
While the army commander, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, sought to market his return to Khartoum as a pivotal stop, the background of the scenes published by the army reveals the extent of the destruction: the Republican Palace is just a shell of what it was, and its interior is mostly empty after it was subjected to looting and vandalism at the hands of the Rapid Support Forces.
Despite this, the army is encouraging residents to return, has rebuilt the airport, reopened it to operate domestic flights, and has begun rehabilitating some of the infrastructure.
“There is a lump in our throat”
However, this was not enough to restore services. Electricity is still cut off for days on end, as is water, and many people struggle to shop in light of exorbitant prices that continue to rise daily.
Souad Muhammad Idris (49 years old) says that she returned to her home in Khartoum Bahri to find that its furniture had been stolen. In light of her inability to buy a new refrigerator, she is forced to buy food daily.
The woman, a widow and mother of six children, adds: “I have to buy vegetables and meat every day, and the prices are high and every day they increase... It is true that we came with a longing for our country, but the prices are crushing.”
The return was concentrated in the popular neighborhoods, while upscale areas remain waiting for their residents, such as “Khartoum 2,” where broken glass spreads in its tree-shaded streets, between luxurious homes, some of which are destroyed, in a silence broken only by the chirping of birds.
After 3 months of returning, Soraya Babiker (86 years old) is packing her bags again.
She explained to Agence France-Presse: “My husband, my young daughter and I will leave for the Emirates... Of course we wanted not to leave, but our health condition and the difficulty of obtaining treatment” necessitate that.
The health sector, which was severely damaged in the war, is a priority for many.
Although charities rehabilitated some hospitals when residents began returning last year, many medical supplies remain unavailable.
Dr. Haifa Omar says: “We try as much as possible so that the patient and his family do not have to undergo any tests or x-rays outside the hospital.”
She adds: “But some medicines are not available... We ask the patient to buy them from outside the hospital, and we have a lump in our throat because we know people’s circumstances.”
Even outside the hospital, it is not easy to find medicine, according to Imam Bakr Abbas, who returned to southern Khartoum with his wife, two children, and parents, after spending 3 years in Cairo.
In front of a pharmacy, the 34-year-old man says: “My father has blood pressure, and to get the medicine, I have to enter 10 pharmacies to find it, and its price changes daily.”
Abbas also struggles to keep insulin refrigerated for his mother, who suffers from diabetes. He explains that he bought a refrigerator, “but the electricity goes out 12 hours a day, and it gets damaged.”
“Things are not okay”
Khartoum is now a shadow of what it once was: a major African metropolis with a population of more than 8 million.
A UN official told Agence France-Presse in Khartoum that the scale of destruction exceeds all the conflicts he witnessed, including Ukraine.
Although the Rapid Support Forces launch sporadic attacks with marches on Khartoum, the authorities insist that things return to normal.
It ended the distance education system in universities in July, and students were required to return. This step prompted medical professors at the University of Khartoum to threaten to submit mass resignations.
One of the master’s students told Agence France-Presse: “The university refused to discuss her master’s research online,” even though her supervisor “is in another country.”
As for another student who was scheduled to begin the final year of her bachelor’s degree in business administration, she is racing against time to obtain a scholarship in Egypt to start studying again, after she missed her attendance exams this summer.
She says sadly: “They did not listen to us.” All they cared about was that people would come back.”
The young woman, who asked to remain anonymous, adds: “It is political. They want people to come back to show that things are fine, but... they are not fine at all.”
Two Palestinians were injured, one of them critically, this morning (Sunday), as a result of an Israeli drone bombing a group of citizens near the White Mosque in the Beach Camp, west of Gaza City, while the death toll from the war exceeded 74,000 people.
The Palestinian News and Information Agency (Wafa) quoted local sources as saying: “A citizen was injured, at dawn today, as a result of the bombing of a march near the tents of displaced persons in the vicinity of the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood market, north of Gaza City.”
In this context, Israeli forces targeted areas south of Khan Yunis with artillery shelling, while their vehicles opened fire east of the city, coinciding with artillery shelling and intense shooting targeting the Mawasi Rafah area, south of the Gaza Strip.
Israeli helicopters also opened heavy fire east of Gaza City, while tanks and gunboats opened fire towards the northwestern areas of the city.
In the northern Gaza Strip, Israeli vehicles opened heavy fire west of Beit Lahia.
This comes at a time when the Palestinian death toll as a result of the war that has been ongoing for nearly three years between Israel and Hamas has exceeded 74,000 dead, according to data from the Ministry of Health in Gaza.
Although the ceasefire agreement - which entered into force on October 10 - has stopped the most intense fighting, Israeli strikes are still continuing in what the Israeli army describes as a response to threats or attacks, according to the American Associated Press.
The Ministry of Health in Gaza announced yesterday, Saturday, that the death toll of Palestinians had risen to 74,016 people, in addition to the injury of 175,068 others. The war broke out on October 7, 2023, when militants led by Hamas launched an attack on Israel, killing about 1,200 people - most of them civilians - and taking 251 others hostage.
The ministry - which is affiliated with the Hamas-run government - stated that since the start of the ceasefire, 1,145 Palestinians have been killed. The Ministry maintains detailed records that are generally considered reliable by United Nations agencies and international organizations; Although it does not distinguish in its numbers between civilians and militants, it indicates that women and children constitute about half of the total victims.
On the other hand, 7 Israeli soldiers have been killed since the start of the ceasefire.
Other aspects of the ceasefire agreement - which was reached with American mediation - are still in place. Israeli forces currently control more than half of the Palestinian territories, and Hamas has not surrendered its weapons, a new Palestinian government has not been formed, and reconstruction operations have not yet begun.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirms that Israeli forces will not withdraw unless Hamas surrenders its weapons.
