Political and military developments in Lebanon and Iraq: Florida negotiations and the sustainable development framework

Lebanon fears that the Lebanese-Israeli military meeting, under American auspices in Florida on October 20, will constitute a stop to pass the time until the Knesset elections are held in Israel on the 27th, and the “American midterms” on the third of next November, relying on American intervention to activate the implementation of the “Framework Agreement.”

Lebanon is afraid of being involved in managing the crisis to fill the void, and is seeking, through its military delegation to the Florida negotiations, to create a breach that opens the door to continuing the implementation of the “Framework Agreement,” which is a point of intersection between Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in their meeting in Washington, instead of the meeting being a station that Washington is looking forward to to pass a message that it is continuing to sponsor the negotiations regardless of the results that the negotiators may reach.

In this context, a Lebanese source concerned with the negotiations said that filling the void with wasted time with minimal damage requires reducing the level of internal tension and preventing Israel from expanding the security zone so that Lebanon can withstand keeping the negotiations dependent on the election results in Israel. He confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that contacts are ongoing between Beirut and Washington to fix the deadline for holding the military meeting, which is headed by the Lebanese side, the head of the negotiating delegation, former Ambassador Simon Karam, in the presence of Ambassador Nada Hamada Moawad, and the Director of Operations at the Army Command, Brigadier General George Rizkallah, who heads the military team.

The source pointed out that the Lebanese delegation to Florida is betting on American intervention to bring the negotiations out of their eighth round of stagnation, and he proposes including the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel, and resolving the controversy surrounding the formation of a “verification mechanism” for the deployment of the Lebanese army in the “experimental zone,” after expanding it and ensuring that it is free of Hezbollah weapons and its fighters, and establishing a ceasefire, on the meeting’s agenda.

He believed that removing the “verification mechanism” from the tensions requires agreement on its role and on who heads it, in addition to providing guarantees that the team of observers emanating from it will not be harmed. This is what is required of Israel and Hezbollah, which continues its campaign against direct negotiations, insists on keeping its weapons, and demands dropping the “framework agreement” and linking the Lebanese track to Iran with its proof of the Iranian-American “memorandum of understanding” as an alternative to the agreement despite Washington’s rejection of that.

The source confirmed that Lebanon fears that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will resort to expanding the security zone by targeting the heights located between Iqlim al-Tuffah and Jabal al-Rayhan, and hopes that Washington will intervene to control the performance of the Israeli army, despite the fact that Tel Aviv’s withdrawal of combat units, meaning those belonging to the Golani Brigade, means from the military point of view that it has no intention of attacking with the aim of expanding to the extent that it continues to close in on the security zone by bulldozing towns and destroying what remains of the homes in it, and it is now in A defensive position to prevent Hezbollah fighters from infiltrating it, in exchange for its control of the towns located on the front edge north of the Litani River overlooking its south, turning them into scorched earth, similar to what happened to the towns located within the Yellow Line.

But the source is not reassured that Netanyahu will not deviate if he is forced to raise his level of support in the elections to ensure his return to head the government.

In addition, a Western diplomatic source in Beirut, who is aware of the atmosphere of preparations for the military meeting, revealed that Netanyahu is not willing to provide facilities, in deed and not in word, to begin implementing the “framework agreement” before it passes the electoral deadline, and therefore refuses to respond to Lebanon’s request to expand the “experimental zone.” He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Netanyahu agrees to its expansion on the condition that it be limited to the towns located on the front edge of the northern Litani River, some of which his army controls by fire and occupies others.

The source confirmed that implementing the consistent steps, as Lebanon demands, means, from the point of view of the international community, led by the United States of America, agreeing on a timetable for Israeli withdrawal, in exchange for developing a plan to disarm Hezbollah in instalments. He said that he does not support the campaign against the Lebanese army, accusing it of negligence, and holding it responsible under the pretext of its leadership’s reluctance to implement the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state, adding that “the decision in this regard is under the responsibility of the Council of Ministers collectively and that the military institution implements the decisions it takes, especially since there is no going back from the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state. This is what Aoun confirms in his meetings between Lebanon and abroad, and he enjoys international appreciation for his position and support from the majority of the Lebanese.”

Accordingly; Attention remains drawn to the Florida meeting in light of exploring the extent of Washington’s willingness to intervene by causing a breach that opens the door to proceeding with the implementation of the “Framework Agreement” so that it is not limited to filling the void, even though achieving tangible progress will inevitably strengthen the state’s position in its bet on the “Framework Agreement” and weaken the position of “Hezbollah,” which will not stop threatening the Presidents of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, and the government, Nawaf Salam. But the party is also wary of resorting to the street to put pressure on the government, because its ally, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, stands strongly against using the street to settle scores, and sees no justification for toppling the government, setting red lines to “fortify civil peace.”

The Iraqi Ministry of Planning announced, on Sunday, the launch of the “Framework with the United Nations for Cooperation for Sustainable Development” document for the period from 2025 to 2029. The announcement was made during a ceremony organized by the International Cooperation Department at the Ministry’s headquarters in Baghdad, in cooperation with the United Nations, and in the presence of representatives of the Iraqi government, United Nations organizations and relevant parties.

According to the United Nations, “The framework is the strategic plan that will guide the support of 25 United Nations agencies, funds and programs in Iraq, as it will provide technical support consistent with national priorities and plans, in line with Iraq’s Vision 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals.”

The mandate of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) officially and completely ended at the end of December 2025, in response to an official request submitted by the government of former Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani. The international presence in Iraq then shifted from political support and political crisis management to a purely developmental and technical partnership led by specialized organizations and agencies of the United Nations.

According to the United Nations, the “Framework” reflects a common vision to enhance progress in key areas. Among them are education, healthcare, job creation, climate action and promoting good governance. It focuses on 4 main strategic axes, which are improving access to education, health and social services, job opportunities and economic growth, protecting the environment and confronting climate change, in addition to effective governance and the rule of law.

The Undersecretary of the Ministry of Planning for Technical Affairs, Maher Hammad Johan, confirmed in a speech during the celebration that “the launch of the document represents a turning point in the path of joint development work, and a basis for strengthening the partnership between the Republic of Iraq and the United Nations system in the coming years.”

He pointed out, according to a statement issued by the ministry, that “its preparation (the document) was the result of joint efforts and continuous coordination between national institutions, United Nations agencies, and international partners, reflecting a joint commitment to supporting the development process in Iraq and responding to its development priorities and needs.”

Johan stated that “aligning the priorities of the United Nations Cooperation Framework for Sustainable Development with Iraq’s Vision 2030, the priorities of the government program, and the National Development Plan (2024-2028) represents an essential pillar for ensuring the consistency of international cooperation with the path of national development, and directing resources, expertise, and technical support towards the priorities identified by Iraq.”

He pointed out that “the next stage requires strengthening the responsibility of national institutions in leading the implementation and follow-up process, and transforming the priorities and commitments included in the framework into executable and measurable programs and projects, which ensures that the outcomes of cooperation are tangible and measurable in their impact on the lives of citizens, leading to achieving sustainable development goals.”

Johan called on Iraq's partners in the United Nations and international and regional organizations to “continue providing technical support, financing and expertise, in accordance with national priorities and development plans, with a focus on building national capabilities and transferring knowledge and expertise to Iraqi institutions and staff, which contributes to the sustainability of the results of cooperation in implementing programs.”

For his part, the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Iraq, Peter Hawkins, stressed during the ceremony “the importance of continuing cooperation between the Iraqi government and the United Nations, within the framework of implementing the United Nations Cooperation Framework for Sustainable Development for the period (2025-2029).”

He added, “This meeting represents an opportunity to review the programs supported by the United Nations, and the extent of their connection to the priorities of government institutions, as well as enhancing the participation of national entities in the results groups and following up on the implementation of the programs and evaluating their impact,” stressing the United Nations’ commitment to continuing to work with the government and people of Iraq, and strengthening the partnership in a way that contributes to achieving tangible results that are reflected in the lives of citizens.

At a time when the United States confirmed that the economic partnership with Iraq was moving forward, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi warned the Shiite “coordinating framework forces” of the consequences of not adhering to the deadlines set for restricting weapons to the state.

On the night of Saturday-Sunday, Al-Zaidi hosted a meeting of the “Framework Forces,” during which he stressed the necessity of “resolving all files, including completing the government cabinet and the file of inventory and organization of weapons, in a way that strengthens the sovereignty of the state’s decision and the stability of security in the country and the region.”

An informed source told Asharq Al-Awsat that “Al-Zaidi also stressed the necessity of supporting the work of the Quartet Committee concerned with negotiating with the factions, to reach a final agreement to hand over weapons to the Popular Mobilization Forces, according to the agreed upon time limits.” He also reviewed the most important topics that he discussed with the US administration during his recent visit to Washington, and the economic, political and security implications for the country if this is not possible.

This warning coincides with what US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed in a congratulatory telegram he sent to Al-Zaidi on the occasion of Iraqi “National Day” on October 3, in which he referred to the visit the Prime Minister made to Washington last July, and his meeting with President Donald Trump in the White House, pointing out that it “reflected the strength of the friendship between the two countries and the shared commitment to building a strong and prosperous future.”

The US Secretary of State added: “The economic partnerships announced during that visit embody the broad potential for trade and investment cooperation between American and Iraqi companies,” and welcomed “the continuing efforts made by Iraq to strengthen its sovereignty and contribute to establishing security and stability in the Middle East region.”

According to an informed source who informed Asharq Al-Awsat, “The United States understands the difficulties that Al-Zaidi faces in dealing with the forces that possess weapons, as well as the political forces, some of which are within the same (coordination framework), which seem not to be enthusiastic about this option according to the formula presented by Al-Zaidi.”

He added, “The change in the position of the Coordination Framework Forces, in terms of setting relatively long periods of time for handing over weapons, occurred after the single meeting that brought together Al-Zaidi with US President Donald Trump, without the rest of the members of the Iraqi delegation. In addition, Trump responded to Al-Zaidi’s request regarding the exception granted to Iranian planes to land at Najaf Airport.

It is noteworthy that Al-Zaidi stressed, during his speech on the occasion of “National Day,” that Iraq is a state that “owns its decisions and protects its land and sky, and its weapons are subject to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces,” noting that “the Iraqi state completed its sovereignty on September 30, 2026, with the end of the military mission of the (International Coalition).” He added that “political instability has caused the country to lose many development opportunities, and has caused a repeated return to zero-sum beginnings,” as he described it.

He pointed out that his government “took responsibility for protecting Iraq’s interests, security, sovereignty, and national decision-making from the repercussions of the conflict in the region,” stressing that Iraq “is pursuing a balanced foreign policy that takes into account the highest national interest, and builds its relations on the basis of mutual interests and respect.”

On the economic level, he said, “The government is working to diversify the economy, empower the private sector, link government spending to results, proceed with the initiative of one million residential plots of land, establish the Generations Fund to guarantee the future of children, establish economic cities, and implement the development path so that Iraq is a trade route, an energy corridor, an investment center, and a bridge between East and West.”

He stressed that “our responsibility is to make sovereignty a path to reform,” stressing that “with the unity of the people of Iraq and their national and social harmony, we move from confronting crises to building the future.”

In this context, political and strategic affairs researcher Hani Ashour told Asharq Al-Awsat that “after the departure of the American forces from Iraq, as well as the international coalition forces, it became necessary to restructure the security strategy in Iraq, especially with regard to restricting the factions’ weapons, and then strengthening the security services and armed forces.”

Ashour added: “It is clear that there are many problems that could complicate these files, including firstly the economic situation in Iraq after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which does not allow the government to import many weapons in order to build an armed force capable of protecting the country. Secondly, the Iraqi political forces are trying to impose a vision based on dialogue with the armed factions, which means that this dialogue may be prolonged and remain dependent on the American-Iranian conflict and its repercussions. This could constitute a new opportunity for the armed factions to express their loyalty to Iran, in addition to the return of talk about them keeping weapons to protect the country.”