Employment surprise in the USA: Almost tripled expectations

October non-farm employment data announced by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) pointed out that the wheels in the American economy were turning much faster than expected. In October, when economists participating in the Dow Jones survey expected an increase of only 59 thousand people, non-agricultural employment increased by 165 thousand people, almost erasing the forecasts. Considering that the average monthly employment increase in the last 12 months was 48 thousand people, the performance in October was recorded as a significant revival in the labor market.

REVISIONS STRENGTHENED THE TABLE

The positive outlook in employment was not limited to October; Updates for the past months also confirmed the market's resistance. Employment increase for August was revised from 133 thousand to 186 thousand, and September data was revised from 29 thousand to 60 thousand. Thus, the total employment increase for these two months was 84 thousand people higher than previously announced.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate, which the markets expected to rise to 4.2 percent, remained below expectations and stood at 4.1 percent in October. In the country where the total number of unemployed people is 7.1 million, the unemployment rate has maintained its horizontal course between 4.1 percent and 4.3 percent since March.

Striking increase in 'mandatory' part-timers

Striking data on the labor front were also included in the details of the report, in which the labor market participation rate remained at 61.9 percent and the employment-to-population ratio remained at 59.3 percent and did not show a major change. While the number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks and above) reached 2 million people, the share of this segment in the total unemployed was recorded as 27.6 percent.

In addition, there was a sharp increase in the number of part-time workers who could not find a full-time job or had to work for economic reasons. The number of employees in this group increased by 339 thousand people in one month, reaching 4.8 million.

THE SERVICE SECTOR BACKED, WAGE INCREASE REMAINED LIMITED

The locomotive of employment growth in October was professional and commercial services. The sector, whose last 12-month average was only 15 thousand, created employment for 70 thousand people in October. There was an employment increase of 42 thousand people in the health sector, 25 thousand people in transportation and storage, and 19 thousand people in the manufacturing industry.

The increase in employees' incomes followed a moderate course, parallel to inflation. The average hourly earnings of non-agricultural workers in the private sector increased by 14 cents (0.4 percent) to $38 in October. While the annual increase in hourly wages was calculated as 3.1 percent, the average weekly working time in the private sector remained constant at 34.4 hours.