US Withdrawal from Iraq and Türkiye's Role in Northern Iraq

While discussions about the new balance of power in the region continue after the withdrawal of the last US troops from Iraq, Saudi Arabia-based Arab News writer Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib wrote that attention was focused on Iran's possible increase in influence, but the role that Türkiye could assume was not discussed sufficiently.

In his article titled "Türkiye is preparing to assume a greater role in Northern Iraq", Khatib stated that the security concerns of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) have increased with the departure of American soldiers. According to the author, the new conditions may lead Erbil to further strengthen its relations with Ankara.

"US WITHDRAWAL CAUSED CONCERN"

Khatib stated that the Iraqi News Agency evaluated the withdrawal of US troops as a "historical turning point" in terms of completing the country's sovereignty and strengthening the independence of political-economic decision-making.

However, according to the author, while Baghdad and pro-Iran groups welcome the departure of American soldiers, there is a different picture in the KRG.

Khatib pointed out that KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani expressed his concern about the region being abandoned without a defense system.

The author stated that relations between Iran and the KRG have become more tense, especially during the ongoing war, and wrote that Iran has carried out more than 1,000 missile and unmanned aerial vehicle attacks on the region since February. According to Khatib, these attacks targeted both Iranian Kurdish opposition groups and the American presence in the region.

"IRAN APPROACHES KRG WITH SUSPICION"

According to Khatib, relations between Iran and Iraqi Kurds were not always as tense as they are today.

The author stated that before 2003, Iran cooperated with the Iraqi Kurds, whom it saw as a common threat to the Baath regime under Saddam Hussein, but this dynamic changed after the overthrow of the Baath regime.

Khatib stated that Iran's need for cooperation with the Kurds has decreased after the emergence of a new political structure in Iraq, which is predominantly Shiite and has developed close relations with Tehran.

On the other hand, he argued that the KRG is increasingly gaining a state-like structure, strengthening its autonomy, and developing regional political and economic relations independent of Baghdad, causing concern in Iran.

According to the author, Tehran is particularly concerned about the KRG's relations with Israel and the impact that Kurdish nationalism may have on the Kurdish population in Iran.

ATTENTION-RATING 'ISRAEL' CLAIM

In his article, Khatib also included news and allegations that the US and Israeli intelligence coordinated with Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq and prepared these groups to cause chaos in Iran.

Referring to news based on Israeli sources, the author stated that White House officials reported the plan to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and that it was claimed that Erdoğan persuaded US President Donald Trump to give up on it.

According to Khatib, Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned Washington that encouraging a Kurdish-led civil war or the disintegration of Iran could have dangerous consequences for the region.

TIES BETWEEN Türkiye AND KRG

Khatib emphasized that, unlike Iran, Türkiye has important economic relations with Northern Iraq.

Pointing out that Iraq is Türkiye's third largest export market, the author stated that a significant portion of Turkish companies operating in Iraq are located in the KRG region.

Stating that energy relations are one of the important elements of the Ankara-Erbil line, Khatib wrote that Türkiye will purchase approximately 25 percent of the oil it consumes until 2023 from Northern Iraq.

Khatib reminded that this flow stopped after the International Chamber of Commerce's decision regarding KRG's oil exports independent of Baghdad, and then oil shipments resumed.

The author also stated that in the current conditions where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has become a critical route for the export of Iraqi oil.

PKK FACTOR

According to Khatib, for Ankara, the PKK constitutes the other important dimension of relations with Northern Iraq.

The author stated that Türkiye wants political actors in the KRG to share Ankara's approach against the PKK and therefore is trying to develop close relations with Erbil.

Khatib argued that Türkiye, like Iran, is disturbed by Erbil's relations with Tel Aviv, the strengthening of Kurdish nationalism and their quest for independence.

However, according to the author, Iran's relations with Northern Iraq are perceived as interventionist and patronizing by Erbil, while there is a more cooperative relationship between Türkiye and the KRG.

THE 'MOST NATURAL' OPTION FOR ERBİL

Khatib argued that under these conditions, the "natural path" that could be followed for the KRG was to strengthen relations with Türkiye.

According to the author, such a policy could help fill the gap created by the US withdrawal, while also limiting Iran's influence on Erbil.

Khatib also suggested that a closer relationship with Türkiye would be tolerated by Iran, unlike secret cooperation with Israel.

COMMON INTERESTS OF Türkiye AND IRAN

According to Khatib's analysis, Türkiye and Iran have some common interests regarding Northern Iraq.

The author argued that Ankara and Tehran want to prevent Kurdish armed movements against neighboring countries, keep Kurdish nationalism under control, and prevent Israel from creating a sphere of influence that could destabilize the region.

For this reason, Khatib put forward a different scenario against the assessments that Iran's influence would only increase in Iraq after the withdrawal of American troops.

According to the author, Türkiye's influence in Iraq can be expected to increase and this will happen with Tehran's tacit acceptance.

Khatib concluded his article by stating that those who think that Iran will fill the gap left by the USA should "pay attention to Ankara's next move."