The gap between ABF carrier board supply and demand widens, and the stock prices of Taiwan's three major manufacturers all rise

Reporter Zhuo Yijun/Special report

With AI servers, high-speed computing (HPC), AI The demand for ASIC and other related applications continues to be strong, and the ABF carrier board market has officially entered a new round of upward super cycle. The supply gap has gradually expanded, and prices have also increased quarter by quarter. Foreign investors estimate that the upward trend in ABF carrier board prices will continue all the way to the fourth quarter of 2027, and there is a shortage. The situation will be difficult to resolve before 2028. The stock prices of Taiwanese IC substrate manufacturers Xinxing (3037), Nanjing Electric (8046), and Jingshuo (3189) were on full fire last week, and they simultaneously reached sky-high listing prices, rising 10.1%, 17.7%, and 9.1% respectively in a single week.

Supply and demand gap: high-end ABF carrier boards are expected to be in 2028

This year, AI computing demands continue to extend from model training to large-scale inference and agentic AI. Recently, Meta launched the killer AI assistant Muse, further igniting the application of agentic AI and promoting a new wave of CPU and AI ASIC demand, Gartner estimates that global server shipments this year will be approximately 14 million units, an annual increase of 11.6%, of which AI servers will be approximately 3.7 million units, an annual increase of 55.9%, which will continue to support the demand for high-end ABF carrier boards; with the launch of new generation AI products, the use of Carrier boards and PCB boards are larger in size and have more layers. As the supply of upstream raw material T-glass fiberglass cloth continues to tighten, the legal person estimates that the supply and demand gap of ABF carrier boards will be 25% and 36% in 2027 and 2028 respectively, and the gross profit margin and profit of carrier board factories will also reach peaks.

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Xinxing's stock price has regained its momentum and is about to challenge its all-time high. (Photo by reporter Zhuo Yijun)

Xinxing has concentrated its efforts on expanding high-end ABF carrier boards. Most of its future production capacity has been booked by large customers. The overall order visibility is good, and the profit structure will be significantly improved. Xinxing pointed out that ABF's carrier board price strategy will adopt a rolling adjustment, and revenue is expected to grow quarter by quarter. As ABF's carrier board increases its selling price, coupled with an increase in utilization rate and an improvement in yield, it will help gross profit margin and profit performance.

Nandian is an important supplier that adopts the spot price of ABF carrier boards in the current market. The legal person predicts that Nandian will benefit greatly from the supply and demand shortage and continued price increases in the ABF carrier board industry, and its revenue and profits are expected to maintain strong growth.

This year, Jingshuo received a large order for CPU and GPU carrier boards for Huida's latest servers. The huge order prompted Jingshuo to launch a new round of production expansion. The legal person pointed out that Jingshuo's total ABF carrier board production capacity will increase by about 25% next year, driving next year's profits to double this year's.

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