Abstention in the first round of presidential elections has grown since 2006, with an increase of four percentage points until 2022, when the rate reached 20.79%, 32.2 million Brazilians absent. In an election with only two competitive candidates tied within the margin of error in the aggregate of polls, abstention can define the outcome.
In the last election, between Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT), the margins in the polls were not so tight just a few days before the vote, and abstention fell in the second round for the first time since 2002, even with the aftermath of the pandemic restrictions. The PT member returned to the Planalto Palace.
In this year's dispute, the absence of voters tends to penalize Lula, in the opinion of political scientist Antônio Lavareda, president of Abrapel (Brazilian Association of Electoral Research). He bets that the increase in abstention is certain (it grows with each election) and that the rate is driven by less educated and lower-income voters, the group with the greatest support for the PT member.
“Abstaining will harm Lula because he has fewer votes among the less educated than he had in 2022. There is dissatisfaction with the economy and the perception that it will not improve,” he states.
Lavareda says that the so-called Spearman correlation (which measures whether two variables tend to vary together and in which direction) between education and abstention is almost absolute, at -0.97, which means that the lower the education, the greater the tendency to abstain.
For him, this was not a problem in 2018, for example, because the then presidential candidate Fernando Haddad (PT) had a very low vote in the first round, 22%, "and with little presence at the base of the social pyramid, unlike Lula, who attracts the public with low income and education".
This loyalty of the base of the pyramid to Lula could be a motivation for voting, but for the political scientist, those who abstain are voters with "less consistency" in relation to voting and politics, and for whom logistical difficulties are also present.
The cities with the highest abstention are located in more remote areas of the North region, in some border areas and in small municipalities.
Furthermore, there is evidence that this year's campaign has the lowest engagement since redemocratization: it is the first election in decades without a debate between the main candidates and the level of interest measured in polls is low.
According to the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), illiterate people account for the profile with the highest abstention rate. In 2022, they registered 52% abstention in the first round and 49.3% in the second. Among voters with completed higher education, the rate was 12.4%.
Older voters, for whom voting is optional, also have high rates of abstention. Among those over 70 years of age, abstention was 58.8% in the first round and 54.7% in the second.
The latest Datafolha poll, on Thursday (1st), indicated Lula with 42% of total voting intentions in the first round, against 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Voters willing to cast a null or blank vote totaled 5%, while 2% declared themselves undecided.
In valid votes (which exclude white, null and undecided votes), Lula registered 45%, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 40%. In the second round, in terms of total votes, there is a technical tie within the margin of error: 48% for Lula and 45% for Flávio.
Luciana Chong, director of the institute, agrees on the weight of abstention this year given the margins, but says it is difficult to predict which of the candidates will be penalized.
"In the last survey, we included the question about the chance of voting, from 0 to 10, and separated it into two groups: one that gave grades from 0 to 8 and the other that gave grades 9 and 10. In the first group, which is what we can associate with a greater chance of abstention, are 17%. In this profile, young people are above average and also the less educated, potential Lula voters. But the rate is higher in the Southeast. In the Northeast, you have more voters giving grades 9 and 10, that is, saying that they will vote on Sunday", he states.
That's why, according to her, "you can't be so categorical." "The least educated lead the abstention and vote for Lula, but there is also a portion that is with Flávio, and the Southeast has less chance of voting than the Northeast."
Afraid to make estimates, Jairo Nicolau, professor and researcher at CPDOC/FGV (Center for Research and Documentation of Contemporary History of Brazil at Fundação Getulio Vargas), considers it curious that the refusal of politics expressed by the electorate in recent years has not yet turned into the so-called "no vote".
"In 2013 there was that confusion, and in 2014 nothing happened at the polls [significant change in abstention, whites and nulls]. In other words, it was a temporary dissatisfaction. Then came Lava Jato, the dissatisfaction turned into Bolsonarism. In the last election, there was a reduction in abstention in the second round, and whites and nulls even fell for president. And now this strange climate is coming and we don't know what this will translate into. I think one day will translate into refusal."
For Bruno Reis, professor of political science at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais), regardless of abstention, Brazilian voter turnout, at around 80%, will remain high — which he considers a positive symptom of the electoral system.
"Compulsory voting in Brazil is almost symbolic, since, with R$5, you can regularize your situation in two minutes at any polling station. In reality, there is no penalty for not showing up. And around 80% turn up."
